Violence continues to grip the East African country of Somalia
despite a recent peace agreement between its transitional government and an
Islamist opposition faction. Most analysts are skeptical that the U.N.-mediated
accord would succeed where previous initiatives have failed. Some insurgent
factions and opposition hardliners have already rejected the deal. What are Somalia's chances that the latest agreement
will help restore stability? Aida Akl looks at the issue.
The agreement was signed in Djibouti on June
9 between Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a faction of
the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS). The deal
calls for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops within 120 days of
implementation, contingent on the deployment of a sufficient U.N. peacekeeping
force in Somalia.
Ethiopian troops entered Somalia in December 2006 to help
TFG forces remove an Islamist administration. Ethiopian and Somali forces
have been grappling since then with an insurgency that has claimed more than
8,500 lives and displaced more than a million people. Somalia has not seen
a stable central government in more than 17 years, and previous efforts to
restore stability have failed.
Hopes for Success
It is against this backdrop that former U.S.
Ambassador to Ethiopia, David Shinn, hopes that the latest peace accord will
succeed. "It was a step in the right direction. And it
deserves support, although there are some Somalis who vehemently are opposed to
it. It's really the only proposal or arrangement on the table that has any hope
of accomplishing anything," said Shinn. "Everything else is just a continuation of the status
quo, which is a horrible humanitarian situation in the country that impacts
most Somalis negatively, no chance for peace, no chance for any kind of a
government of national unity and little chance that the Ethiopians will
Shinn, a George Washington University
professor of international affairs, says the agreement has promise, although
splinter groups that oppose it are likely to continue fighting. "The big problem is the fact that a significant element of the Alliance
for the Re-liberation of Somalia did not sign the agreement [and], in fact,
actively opposes it, and has the support of Eritrea in that opposition and has
at least the moral support of al-Qaeda," said Shinn. "And if you can convince the
rank and file of people who oppose the agreement that there is a significant
component of the ARS that favors discussions with the Transitional Federal
Government and thinks that it might be possible to create a government of
national unity and have peace in the country, you, in theory, could undercut a
lot of this opposition."
The Issue of Ethiopian Troops
But even a
united opposition would still object to the continued presence of Ethiopian troops
in Somalia. James Paul, Executive Director of the Global Policy Forum, a group
that monitors U.N. policies, says an Ethiopian withdrawal was a key demand in
Djibouti and one that the peace accord does not fully satisfy.
"What's interesting is that there was news that the Ethiopian forces were
moving out of the central region of the country. And this is, of course, a
major issue of contention," said Paul. "So, the accord has been interpreted, certainly by
many, including the rebels, to mean that the Ethiopians would be leaving. And
the government has been saying that that isn't necessarily the case. So, can we
see the Ethiopians move out? And if so, what is going to be the response of the
rebel groups? And what about the government? What about the African Union
force? What about the U.N.? These are all question marks."
Many analysts dismiss any notion of an imminent Ethiopian withdrawal from
Somalia. The reason for that, says Karin von Hippel of the Center for Strategic
and International Studies in Washington, is that Ethiopia worries that
Somalia's Islamist factions could threaten its security.
"If Ethiopia is moving troops around, it's more likely to
be doing so because they are being defeated in one area or they are trying to
retrench and fight back in another area. So I think that their
strategy has been to try to make sure that their borders are secure. Now
Somalia could easily become a protracted conflict for them. It could become
their own Vietnam. But they are very worried that if they leave, they will
leave behind a vacuum until we can get more African Union troops in Somalia," said von Hippel. "Now,
we don't have enough African troops and I doubt we will in the near future
because, who would want to deploy in the middle of fighting?"
Peacekeepers Are Key
The African Union already has about 1,200 peacekeepers in
Somalia. But von Hippel and other Africa experts like Johns Hopkins
University's William Zartman say the African Union is unlikely to send more
troops to Somalia any time soon.
"The African forces
are particularly reluctant to come in a place that has shown itself to be as
murderous as Somalia. We are not talking about a peacekeeping force in the U.N.
sense of the term. We're talking about walking into a hornet's nest. I must say
the long-term prospects of this going on are really very high. The only people who care about it are the Eritreans and the Ethiopians, and they
care in order to fight a proxy war," said Zartman. "If they didn't care anymore, then nobody
Some analysts fault the
international community for leaving Somalia's volatile situation to the
cash-strapped African Union. And George Washington University's David Shinn
argues that even the deployment of a large international peacekeeping force
will not solve Somalia's problems.
"This isn't very
realistic. It takes many, many months for that to happen, far more months
than are included in this three-month long peace agreement," said Shinn. "So the real
solution is trying to convince a majority of the people who are now skeptical
about the Transitional Federal Government that this new arrangement has some hope of achieving peace in the country and to get behind
it. And if it doesn't accomplish that goal, then you are going to have a
continuation of the violence and the conflict that we've seen in Somalia pretty
much sporadically since 1991."
Shinn and other
analysts and U.N. experts say the problem with this scenario is that the
country's deepening humanitarian crisis and the millions of Somalis who could
face starvation by the end of the year cannot survive another failed peace
This story was first broadcast on the English
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