Thursday's suicide bombings in Somalia
may be aimed at sending a message to the United States and breaking the morale
of UNISOM peacekeepers, says Rashid Abdi, an analyst for the International
bombings killed more than 20 people, including AMISOM's deputy commander.
forces staged a helicopter raid in Somalia Monday that reportedly killed Saleh
Ali Saleh Nabhan, one of Africa's most wanted members of al-Qaida.
looks like…retaliation for US action. I
think it also comes against the background of threats that have been there…when
al-Shabaab indicated that they are going to target AMISOM troops," he says.
Expect more militant group attacks
"I think these kinds of attacks will
continue. But…we must realize that there
is also resolve on the part of the international community to keep these
peacekeepers there. Although some kind
of disappointment will be there on the part of Amisom, I don't think this will
create a morale crisis," he says.
Nevertheless, he believes al-Shabaab
and al-Qaida will try to create one.
Al-Shabaab has warned Djibouti not to send troops to AMISOM.
think obviously these kinds of attacks do not help those countries that want to
send peacekeepers. I think one of the reasons
why there has been a great deal of reluctance on the part of some other African
troop-contributing countries is precisely because of this kind of action," he
he says there's a growing "realization" among the international community that
more needs to be done.
there is some…increased troop levels, then probably the whole future of the
Transition Federal Government (TFG) hangs very much in the balance," he says.
describes the TFG as "very weak."
controls very little territory in Mogadishu.
It is increasingly under pressure from al-Shabaab and the
insurgents. It's now reliant on AMISOM
to basically survive. And I think this
attack is virtually aimed at creating panic and sowing a morale crisis within
AMISOM so that they pull out," he says.
Effect of US raid
"I think it is difficult to tell at
this stage the impact that the removal of such a high-level figure (Nabhan)
will have on the movement itself. There
are mixed views," he says.
say it won't have any major effect, while others say the loss of Nabhan will
affect al-Shabaab's ability to launch similar attacks in the future.
"Everything is up in the air at this
moment," he says.