News / Africa

    Analysts Worry Elections May Not End Ivory Coast Division

    A truck driver takes a break on the line that separates northern rebel-held Ivory Coast from the government-run south (file photo)
    A truck driver takes a break on the line that separates northern rebel-held Ivory Coast from the government-run south (file photo)

    As Ivory Coast prepares for a tightly contested presidential run-off now scheduled for November 28, analysts and commentators are worrying the election may not end the country's division, split between a rebel-held north and a government-run south.

    Immediately after it became clear the run-off would be between President Laurent Gbagbo and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, one Ivorian newspaper called it "a duel to death." Ivorian newspapers, from all political stripes, were filled with a flurry of commentary and historical analysis.

    Articles noted that in 1992 when Mr. Ouattara was prime minister under former long term post-independence President Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Mr. Gbagbo, then an opposition pro-democracy leader, had been put in jail for organizing a student protest.  

    Mr. Gbagbo's supporters have accused Mr. Ouattara of being behind the northern rebellion which has cut the country in two since 2002, a charge the former International Monetary Fund official has denied.  The presidential spokesman reiterated those accusations this week, calling Mr. Ouattara the "godfather of the rebellion."

    Mr. Ouattara had been barred from previous Ivory Coast presidential elections over doubts concerning his nationality, but a key component of repeated peace deals with the rebels, who remain in control of the north, has been to allow him to run.

    A former head of the powerful national student union Martial Joseph Ahipeaud wrote a long opinion article this week in which he said results of the first round, in an election delayed five years, indicated Ivory Coast is anything but a cohesive nation, and rather, he wrote, a confusing collection of different religious and ethnic groups.

    Mr. Ouattara, a Muslim from the north, polled more than 95 percent of the electorate in many parts of the mostly Muslim-north in the first round, while getting less than five percent in certain parts of the mostly Christian west. Overall, he finished second with 32 percent of the vote, to Mr. Gbagbo's 38 percent, which included dominating percentages in southern, eastern and western regions.

    The third place candidate, former President Henri Konan Bedie, got a sizable 25 percent, with strength in the Christian center. Mr. Bedie, as well as other minor candidates, is calling for supporters to vote for Mr. Ouattara in the run-off, in line with pre-election agreements.

    Long-time journalist in Africa G. Pascal Zachary, who recently authored the book "Married to Africa," says if those votes add up to more than 50 percent, a Ouattara win would be significant. "He would be a symbol for a lot of reasons, of a more progressive forward-thinking Africa, where Muslims and Christians can co-exist, where moderate Muslims can play by the rules like he has been doing and rewarded with real power," he said.

    Mr. Ouattara has long been the political favorite of many residents in Ivory Coast who are the descendants of migrant agricultural workers from neighboring countries. Hundreds of thousands of these residents, who have long complained of discrimination, were able to get Ivorian nationality and voting papers during the ongoing peace process.

    But anytime there was an opposition protest during Mr. Gbagbo's presidency, there was a violent crackdown. When the Ivorian military bombed rebel areas in 2004 during the peace process, and the French rapid reaction force, which is still present, reacted by destroying Ivorian fighter jets, there were mass protests by so-called Young Patriots, fighting for what they called a second independence against the former colonial power.

    Zachary says a Ouattara victory could be turbulent. "I think (Mr.) Ouattara is the way to go if we were just social engineering. On the other hand, obviously, there are determined factions within Cote d'Ivoire to prevent his victory and somehow those factions and people have to be mollified but they can be through some kind of negotiated settlement," he said.

    Mr. Gbagbo's supporters say they believe many of Mr. Bedie's supporters will vote for the current president based on ethnic and religious preferences, so they are predicting victory for their own side.   

    In this case, many Ivorian commentators say the country could remain divided. Rebel leader Guillaume Soro is prime minister in a government of national unity, but Mr. Gbagbo has said he will choose a new prime minister if he gets a new term.

    His opponents also fear the army will not accept a victory by Mr. Ouattara. A newspaper close to Mr. Bedie this week said Mr. Ouattara's victory would mean order and prosperity, while his defeat would mean anarchy and misery.

    Zachary, who currently writes the popular Africa Works blog, says in the case of Ivory Coast, elections may not be the solution. "Elections are instruments to deliver goods. They are not ends in themselves, so sooner or later if this round fails to deliver a winner, a clear decisive winner, there needs to be a looking at alternatives. One of those is a negotiated permanent government, the second possibility is partitioning the country permanently," he said.

    But a University of Quebec in Montreal Sociologist Marie Nathalie LeBlanc, who has studied identity issues in Ivory Coast for years, says she does not believe most northerners want to secede.

    She says she believes the problem in Ivory Coast, also known as Cote d'Ivoire, is more about access to resources, than ethnic or religious differences. "It is a rich country and it is a territory that until the past few decades has managed to live off relatively well from its resources. The resources are not situated in the north of the country. I would say one of the realities of this whole geopolitics of Cote d'Ivoire is that the northern population has very little advantage to split from the rest of Cote d'Ivoire," she said.

    Within this context, the August arrest of an Ivory Coast army colonel in the United States for allegedly trying to bring back millions of dollars in guns and ammunitions to Ivory Coast and circumvent an ongoing arms embargo has sparked additional fears among Ivorian commentators that an unsuccessful election, where the loser does not accept defeat, could spark a new round of fighting, rather than reuniting the country.

    You May Like

    Self-doubt, Cultural Barriers Hinder Cambodian Women in Tech

    Longtime Cambodian tech observer Sok Sikieng says that although more women have joined profession in recent years, there remain significant factors hindering women from reaching tech potential

    Trans-Adriatic Pipeline to Boost European Energy Security

    $4.5 billion-pipeline will become operational in 2020 and will deliver gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field to southern Italy

    Video California Celebration Showcases Local Wines, Balloons

    Annual festival showcases the region's harvested agriculture, fine wines and offers opportunities to experience the gentle breeze in a hot air balloon flight

    This forum has been closed.
    Comments
         
    There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

    By the Numbers

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    Vietnamese-American Youth Optimistic About Obama's Visit to Vietnami
    X
    Elizabeth Lee
    May 22, 2016 6:04 AM
    U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Vietnam later this month comes at a time when Vietnam is seeking stronger ties with the United States. Many Vietnamese Americans, especially the younger generation, are optimistic Obama’s trip will help further reconciliation between the two former foes. Elizabeth Lee has more from the community called "Little Saigon" located south of Los Angeles.
    Video

    Video Vietnamese-American Youth Optimistic About Obama's Visit to Vietnam

    U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Vietnam later this month comes at a time when Vietnam is seeking stronger ties with the United States. Many Vietnamese Americans, especially the younger generation, are optimistic Obama’s trip will help further reconciliation between the two former foes. Elizabeth Lee has more from the community called "Little Saigon" located south of Los Angeles.
    Video

    Video First-generation, Afghan-American Student Sets Sights on Basketball Glory

    Their parents are immigrants to the United States. They are kids who live between two worlds -- their parents' homeland and the U.S. For many of them, they feel most "American" at school. It can be tricky balancing both worlds. In this report, produced by Beth Mendelson, Arash Arabasadi tells us about one Afghan-American student who seems to be coping -- one shot at a time.
    Video

    Video Newest US Citizens, Writing the Next Great Chapter

    While universities across the United States honor their newest graduates this Friday, many immigrants in downtown Manhattan are celebrating, too. One hundred of them, representing 31 countries across four continents, graduated as U.S. citizens, joining the ranks of 680,000 others every year in New York and cities around the country.
    Video

    Video Vietnam Sees Strong Economic Growth Despite Incomplete Reforms

    Vietnam has transformed its communist economy to become one of the world's fastest-growing nations. While the reforms are incomplete, multinational corporations see a profitable future in Vietnam and have made major investments -- as VOA's Jim Randle reports.
    Video

    Video Qatar Denies World Cup Corruption

    The head of Qatar’s organizing committee for the 2022 World Cup insists his country's bid to host the soccer tournament was completely clean, despite the corruption scandals that have rocked the sport’s governing body, FIFA. Hassan Al-Thawadi also said new laws would offer protection to migrants working on World Cup construction projects. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
    Video

    Video Infrastructure Funding Puts Cambodia on Front Line of International Politics

    When leaders of the world’s seven most developed economies meet in Japan next week, demands for infrastructure investment world wide will be high on the agenda. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push for “quality infrastructure investment” throughout Asia has been widely viewed as a counter to the rise of Chinese investment flooding into region.
    Video

    Video Democrats Fear Party Unity a Casualty in Clinton-Sanders Battle

    Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton claimed a narrow victory in Tuesday's Kentucky primary even as rival Bernie Sanders won in Oregon. Tensions between the two campaigns are rising, prompting fears that the party will have a difficult time unifying to face the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump. VOA national correspondent Jim Malone has more from Washington.
    Video

    Video Portrait of a Transgender Marriage: Husband and Wife Navigate New Roles

    As controversy continues in North Carolina over the use of public bathrooms by transgender individuals, personal struggles with gender identity that were once secret are now coming to light. VOA’s Tina Trinh explored the ramifications for one couple as part of trans.formation, a series of stories on transgender issues.
    Video

    Video Amerikan Hero Flips Stereotype of Middle Eastern Character

    An Iranian American comedian is hoping to connect with American audiences through a film that inverts some of Hollywood's stereotypes about Middle Eastern characters. Sama Dizayee reports.
    Video

    Video Budding Young Inventors Tackle City's Problems with 3-D Printing

    Every city has problems, and local officials and politicians are often frustrated by their inability to solve them. But surprising solutions can come from unexpected places. Students in Baltimore. Maryland, took up the challenge to solve problems they identified in their city, and came up with projects and products to make a difference. VOA's June Soh has more on a digital fabrication competition primarily focused on 3-D design and printing. Carol Pearson narrates.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora