News / Europe

Analysts: Belarus President Bets on Isolation

Incumbent Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a news conference after preliminary election results show him overwhelmingly winning a fourth term in Minsk, 20 Dec 2010
Incumbent Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a news conference after preliminary election results show him overwhelmingly winning a fourth term in Minsk, 20 Dec 2010

Multimedia

Audio
James Brooke

Images of Belarus police clubbing presidential candidates have drawn condemnation from around the world.

What does the future hold for Alexander Lukashenko?

Western observers called his election to a fourth term on Sunday "fraudulent." The Obama administration condemned the vote and the arrests of opposition presidential candidates. The European Union withdrew an offer of $4 billion in credits. And Germany's foreign minister says President Lukashenko is leading his nation into "isolation."

In Moscow, the Kremlin is keeping Mr. Lukashenko at an arm's length. Russian state television broadcast images from Minsk of riot police clubbing protesters and politicians.

With much of the international community against him, analysts say Mr. Lukashenko may take a stance that has served him well during his 16 years in office – hunker down and weather the storm.

"In my opinion, I think that Lukashenko will stay, will stay for the long term because just he is not so stupid," said Alexey Malashenko, a regional expert with Carnegie Moscow Center.

Malashenko predicts that after international condemnation subsides, Mr. Lukashenko will reach out to the moderate opposition to try to show a liberal face to the world.

But in today's world of videos going viral on the Internet, experts say it will take a long time to erase the negative images from Minsk. Seven of the nine opposition candidates were jailed. All are being investigated on suspicion of organizing mass disturbances, a charge that carries a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.

Of the seven, five were injured by police, including runner up Andrei Sannikov who has a broken leg and head injuries. Police beat another candidate, Vladimir Neklyayev, so badly that he was taken to a hospital unconscious.

President Lukashenko ridiculed his jailed rivals.

"They wanted to become presidents. What kind of president are you if you are whacked in the face and cry blue murder?" he asked. "Why are you howling? What kind of president are you? You should put up with it!"

With Mr. Lukashenko's image sinking to new lows in Europe, Natalia Koliada, director of the Belarus Free Theater, says that European democracy activists plan to demand the restoration of European sanctions against the political leadership in Belarus. Without sanctions, she says, Belarus's president will return to trading openness for European aid.

"This is the way Lukashenko works," Koliada said. "He puts people in jail and then he tells to European Union, 'You should give me credits, I will release them."

Koliada, who fled Belarus on Tuesday, predicts that the protests will continue. While jailed in Minsk with dozens of other demonstrators, Koliada says she encountered a new generation of democracy advocates.

"People will care to protest and it was absolutely obvious in Minsk now," said Koliada. "Ninety percent of those people with whom I stayed in jail, all of them were people who came to the square for the first time. And the main phrase was that, 'We are just fed up!'"

Analysts expect Belarus's economy to decline during the coming months as it struggles with falling subsidies from Russia and mounting bills for the election.

Vassily Uxialyor, coordinator of the campaign "For Fair 2010 Elections," says that the mood has changed in Belarus. He says that increasingly, people believe that President Lukashenko this week did not win 50 percent of the vote needed to remain in office.

Uxialyor predicts that protests will become more serious in the spring.

Irish political scientist Donnaca O'Beachain is an expert on the street revolutions that overthrew authoritarian regimes in other former Soviet republics.

"Events that might happen, of course, is an overthrow," said O'Beachain. "That's happened in other post Soviet countries. But again, I don't think that conditions exist in Belarus for the kind of overthrow that we saw in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan – certainly not at the moment."

O'Beachain says most of the Belarussian economy still is in the hands of the state, giving the president enormous power over the country's 9.5 million people.

"Seventy percent of people are employed the public sector," O'Beachain added. "Students who are caught in demonstrations are bound to be expelled from the university, and then often drafted into the army."

With Europe and the United States turning a cold shoulder to Belarus, analysts say much depends on Russia.

After a year of tense relations, Minsk is seeking to improve ties with Moscow. On Wednesday, the Belarussian parliament ratified an agreement to create what it calls a "unified economic space" with Russia and Kazakhstan.

O'Beachain says Russia views democracy as a wild card.

"The problem with democracy from a Russian perspective is that it is unpredictable and if you allow Belarus to go a democratic route, there is no guarantee from a Russian perspective that they would not want to go into NATO," O'Beachain said. "So I don't think that is an attractive option for the Kremlin."

O'Beachain adds that Russia has gotten used to difficult relations with the leaders of the 14 other former Soviet republics.

"There is no obvious choice of an alternative to Lukashenko," said O'Beachain. "And the Russians generally, when you look around at their behavior in other post Soviet republics, they tend to prefer old, reliable authoritarian leaders that they have dealings with in the past, than an unpredictable person."

In Moscow, Anna Sevortian, Russia director of Human Rights Watch, says Russia is starting its own election year – a time for caution for the Kremlin.

"They want to secure a no change policy for Belarus this year," Sevortian said. "And probably since Russia is also facing elections, it will be very supportive in that sense. So I wouldn't expect huge change in Belarus, sadly."

In good health, Belarus's 56- year-old president could serve out his term, analysts say, stretching his time in office to 21 years.

You May Like

Multimedia Social Media Documenting, Not Driving, Hong Kong Protests

Unlike Arab Spring uprisings, pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong aren't relying on Twitter and Facebook to organize, but social media still plays a role More

Analysis: Occupy Central Not Exactly Hong Kong’s Tiananmen

VOA's former Hong Kong, Beijing correspondent compares and contrasts 1989 Tiananmen Square protest with what is now happening in Hong Kong More

Bambari Hospital a Lone Place of Help in Violence-Plagued CAR

Only establishment still functioning in CAR's second city is main hospital More

This forum has been closed.
Comments
     
There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
The Legacy of Jimmy Carter: The Preacher from Plainsi
X
October 01, 2014 10:45 AM
It is common in the United States to see tourists flock to sites associated with America's presidents. Some are privately owned and others are run by the National Park Service or the National Archives -- but most have helped draw business and people into the towns and cities where they are located. As VOA’s Kane Farabaugh reports, there is one particular presidential hometown that is unique in what it has to offer those who make the trip.
Video

Video The Legacy of Jimmy Carter: The Preacher from Plains

It is common in the United States to see tourists flock to sites associated with America's presidents. Some are privately owned and others are run by the National Park Service or the National Archives -- but most have helped draw business and people into the towns and cities where they are located. As VOA’s Kane Farabaugh reports, there is one particular presidential hometown that is unique in what it has to offer those who make the trip.
Video

Video Hong Kong Protests Draw New Supporters on National Holiday

On the 65th anniversary of the founding of Communist China, Hong Kong protesters are hoping to stage the largest pro-democracy demonstration since the 1989 Tiananmen protests. VOA's Brian Padden visited one of the protest sites mid-day, when the atmosphere was calm and where the supporters were enthusiastic about joining what they are calling the umbrella revolution.
Video

Video India's PM Continues First US Visit

India's prime minister is on his first visit to Washington, to strengthen political and economic ties between the world's oldest and the world biggest democracies. He came to the U.S. capital from New York, the first stop on his five-day visit to the country that denied him an entry visa in the past. From Washington, Zlatica Hoke reports Modi seemed most focused on attracting foreign investment and trade to increase job opportunities for his people.
Video

Video Malaysia Struggles to Stop People Joining Jihad

Malaysian authorities say militant groups like the so-called "Islamic State" have used social media to entice at least three dozen Malaysian Muslims to fight in what they call "jihad" in Syria and Iraq. As Mahi Ramkrishnan reports from Kuala Lumpur, counterterrorism police are deeply worried about what could happen when these militants return home.
Video

Video Could US Have Done More to Stop Rise of Islamic State?

President Obama says airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria will likely continue for some time because, in his words, "there is a cancer that has grown for too long." So what if President Obama had acted sooner in Syria to arm more-moderate opponents of both the Islamic State and the Syrian government? VOA State Department Correspondent Scott Stearns reports from the United Nations.
Video

Video Treasure Hunters Seek 'Hidden Treasure' in Central Kenya

Could a cave in a small village in central Kenya be the site of buried treasure? A rumor of riches, left behind by colonialists, has some residents dreaming of wealth, while others see it as a dangerous hoax. VOA's Gabe Joselow has the story.
Video

Video Ebola Patients Find No Treatment at Sierra Leone Holding Center

At a holding facility in Makeni, central Sierra Leone, dozens of sick people sit on the floor in an empty university building. They wait in filthy conditions. It's a 16-hour drive by ambulance to Kailahun Ebola treatment center. Adam Bailes was there and reports on what he says are some of the worst situations he has seen since the beginning of this Ebola outbreak. And he says it appears case numbers may already be far worse than authorities acknowledge.
Video

Video Identifying Bodies Found in Texas Border Region

Thousands of immigrants have died after crossing the border from Mexico into remote areas of the southwestern United States in recent years. Local officials in south Texas alone have found hundreds of unidentified bodies and buried them in mass graves in local cemeteries. Now an anthropologist and her students at Baylor University have been exhuming bodies and looking for clues to identify them. VOA’s Greg Flakus has more from Waco, Texas.
Colonel Steve ‘Spiros’ Pisanos left Greece and came to the U.S. to learn to fly. He flew fighters for the Allies in World War II, narrowly escaping death multiple times.Colonel Steve ‘Spiros’ Pisanos left Greece and came to the U.S. to learn to fly. He flew fighters for the Allies in World War II, narrowly escaping death multiple times.

AppleAndroid