News / Europe

Analysts: Belarus President Bets on Isolation

Incumbent Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a news conference after preliminary election results show him overwhelmingly winning a fourth term in Minsk, 20 Dec 2010
Incumbent Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a news conference after preliminary election results show him overwhelmingly winning a fourth term in Minsk, 20 Dec 2010


James Brooke

Images of Belarus police clubbing presidential candidates have drawn condemnation from around the world.

What does the future hold for Alexander Lukashenko?

Western observers called his election to a fourth term on Sunday "fraudulent." The Obama administration condemned the vote and the arrests of opposition presidential candidates. The European Union withdrew an offer of $4 billion in credits. And Germany's foreign minister says President Lukashenko is leading his nation into "isolation."

In Moscow, the Kremlin is keeping Mr. Lukashenko at an arm's length. Russian state television broadcast images from Minsk of riot police clubbing protesters and politicians.

With much of the international community against him, analysts say Mr. Lukashenko may take a stance that has served him well during his 16 years in office – hunker down and weather the storm.

"In my opinion, I think that Lukashenko will stay, will stay for the long term because just he is not so stupid," said Alexey Malashenko, a regional expert with Carnegie Moscow Center.

Malashenko predicts that after international condemnation subsides, Mr. Lukashenko will reach out to the moderate opposition to try to show a liberal face to the world.

But in today's world of videos going viral on the Internet, experts say it will take a long time to erase the negative images from Minsk. Seven of the nine opposition candidates were jailed. All are being investigated on suspicion of organizing mass disturbances, a charge that carries a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.

Of the seven, five were injured by police, including runner up Andrei Sannikov who has a broken leg and head injuries. Police beat another candidate, Vladimir Neklyayev, so badly that he was taken to a hospital unconscious.

President Lukashenko ridiculed his jailed rivals.

"They wanted to become presidents. What kind of president are you if you are whacked in the face and cry blue murder?" he asked. "Why are you howling? What kind of president are you? You should put up with it!"

With Mr. Lukashenko's image sinking to new lows in Europe, Natalia Koliada, director of the Belarus Free Theater, says that European democracy activists plan to demand the restoration of European sanctions against the political leadership in Belarus. Without sanctions, she says, Belarus's president will return to trading openness for European aid.

"This is the way Lukashenko works," Koliada said. "He puts people in jail and then he tells to European Union, 'You should give me credits, I will release them."

Koliada, who fled Belarus on Tuesday, predicts that the protests will continue. While jailed in Minsk with dozens of other demonstrators, Koliada says she encountered a new generation of democracy advocates.

"People will care to protest and it was absolutely obvious in Minsk now," said Koliada. "Ninety percent of those people with whom I stayed in jail, all of them were people who came to the square for the first time. And the main phrase was that, 'We are just fed up!'"

Analysts expect Belarus's economy to decline during the coming months as it struggles with falling subsidies from Russia and mounting bills for the election.

Vassily Uxialyor, coordinator of the campaign "For Fair 2010 Elections," says that the mood has changed in Belarus. He says that increasingly, people believe that President Lukashenko this week did not win 50 percent of the vote needed to remain in office.

Uxialyor predicts that protests will become more serious in the spring.

Irish political scientist Donnaca O'Beachain is an expert on the street revolutions that overthrew authoritarian regimes in other former Soviet republics.

"Events that might happen, of course, is an overthrow," said O'Beachain. "That's happened in other post Soviet countries. But again, I don't think that conditions exist in Belarus for the kind of overthrow that we saw in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan – certainly not at the moment."

O'Beachain says most of the Belarussian economy still is in the hands of the state, giving the president enormous power over the country's 9.5 million people.

"Seventy percent of people are employed the public sector," O'Beachain added. "Students who are caught in demonstrations are bound to be expelled from the university, and then often drafted into the army."

With Europe and the United States turning a cold shoulder to Belarus, analysts say much depends on Russia.

After a year of tense relations, Minsk is seeking to improve ties with Moscow. On Wednesday, the Belarussian parliament ratified an agreement to create what it calls a "unified economic space" with Russia and Kazakhstan.

O'Beachain says Russia views democracy as a wild card.

"The problem with democracy from a Russian perspective is that it is unpredictable and if you allow Belarus to go a democratic route, there is no guarantee from a Russian perspective that they would not want to go into NATO," O'Beachain said. "So I don't think that is an attractive option for the Kremlin."

O'Beachain adds that Russia has gotten used to difficult relations with the leaders of the 14 other former Soviet republics.

"There is no obvious choice of an alternative to Lukashenko," said O'Beachain. "And the Russians generally, when you look around at their behavior in other post Soviet republics, they tend to prefer old, reliable authoritarian leaders that they have dealings with in the past, than an unpredictable person."

In Moscow, Anna Sevortian, Russia director of Human Rights Watch, says Russia is starting its own election year – a time for caution for the Kremlin.

"They want to secure a no change policy for Belarus this year," Sevortian said. "And probably since Russia is also facing elections, it will be very supportive in that sense. So I wouldn't expect huge change in Belarus, sadly."

In good health, Belarus's 56- year-old president could serve out his term, analysts say, stretching his time in office to 21 years.

You May Like

Video Egyptian Journalists Call for Freedom of Press

Despite release of al-Jazeera journalists and others, Egyptian Journalist Syndicate says some remain imprisoned More

Turkey Survey Indicates Traditional Distrusts, Shift to the West

Comprehensive public opinion survey also found a large majority of those interviewed distrust all countries other than country’s neighbor, Azerbaijan More

Pakistan Court Upholds Death Sentence in Blasphemy Killing

Highest court upholds sentence of Mumtaz Qadri convicted of 2011 killing a provincial governor for criticizing country’s controversial blasphemy law More

This forum has been closed.
There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Making a Minti
October 07, 2015 4:17 AM
While apples, corn, and cranberries top the list of fall produce in the US, it’s also the time to harvest gum, candy, and toothpaste—or at least the oil that makes them minty fresh. Erika Celeste reports from South Bend, Indiana on the mint harvest.

Video Making a Mint

While apples, corn, and cranberries top the list of fall produce in the US, it’s also the time to harvest gum, candy, and toothpaste—or at least the oil that makes them minty fresh. Erika Celeste reports from South Bend, Indiana on the mint harvest.

Video Activists Decry Lagos Slum Demolition

Acting on a court order, authorities in Nigeria demolished a slum last month in the commercial capital, Lagos. But human rights activists say the order was illegal, and the community was razed to make way for a government housing project. Chris Stein has more from Lagos.

Video Self-Driving Cars Getting Closer

We are at the dawn of the robotic car age and should start getting used to seeing self-driving cars, at least on highways. Car and truck manufacturers are now running a tight race to see who will be the first to hit the street, while some taxicab companies are already planning to upgrade their fleets. VOA’s George Putic has more.

Video TPP Agreed, But Faces Stiff Opposition

President Barack Obama promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Tuesday, one day after 12 Pacific Rim nations reached the free trade deal in Atlanta. The controversial pact that would involve about 40 percent of global trade still needs approval by lawmakers in respective countries. Zlatica Hoke reports Obama is facing strong opposition to the deal, including from members of his own party.

Video Clinton Seeks to Boost Image Before Upcoming Debate

The five announced Democratic party presidential contenders meet in their first debate next Tuesday in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field, but she is getting a stronger-than-expected challenge from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone has more from Washington.

Video Music Brings Generations Together

When musicians over the age of 50 headline a rock concert, you expect to see baby boomer fans in the audience. Boomer rock stars have boomer fans. Millennial rock stars have millennial fans. But this isn’t always the case. Take the Lockn’ Music festival which took place in mid-September in rural Arrington, Virginia. Here, Jacquelyn de Phillips discovered two generations of people who are considered quite different in the outside world, spending 4 days together in music-loving harmony.

Video Ukranian Artist Portrays Putin in an Unusual Way

As Russian President Vladimir Putin was addressing the United Nations in New York last month, he was also being featured in an art exhibition in Washington. It’s not a flattering exhibit. It’s done by a Ukrainian artist in a unique medium. And its creator says it’s not only a work of art - it’s a political statement. VOA’s Tetiana Kharchenko has more.

Video South Carolina Reels Under Worst-ever Flooding

South Carolina is reeling from the worst flooding in recorded history that forced residents from their homes and left thousands without drinking water and electricity. Parts of the state, including the capital, Columbia, received about 60 centimeters of rain in just a couple of days. Authorities warn that the end of rain does not mean the end of danger, as it will take days for the water to recede. Zlatica Hoke reports.

Video Russia’s Syria Involvement Raising Concerns in Europe

European nations are joining the United States in demanding that Russia stop targeting opposition groups other than the Islamic State militants as Russian warplanes continue to conduct raids in Syria. The demand came in a statement from Britain, France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States Friday. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports.

Video Nano-tech Filter Cleans Dirty Water

Access to clean water is a problem for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Now, a scientist and chemical engineer in Tanzania (in East Africa) is working to change that by creating an innovative water filter that makes dirty water safe. VOA’s Deborah Block has the story.

Video Demand Rising for Organic Produce in Cambodia

In Cambodia, where rice has long been the main cash crop, farmers are being encouraged to turn to vegetables to satisfy the growing demand for locally produced organic farm products. Daniel de Carteret has more from Phnom Penh.

Video Botanists Grow Furniture, with Pruning Shears

For something a bit out of the ordinary to furnish your home, why not consider wooden chairs, crafted by nature, with a little help from some British botanists with an eye for design. VOA’s Jessica Berman reports.

VOA Blogs