News / Africa

Extreme Weather Intensifies International Food Crises

Experts say climate change could break Africa’s agricultural backbone

Darren Taylor

This is Part 2 of a 5-part series:   Climate Change
Continue to Parts: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5

One of the world’s eminent environmental scientists says modern agriculture has evolved over an 11,000 year period of “rather remarkable” climate stability.

“Agriculture as we know it today is designed to maximize production with that climate system,” said Lester Brown, a former farmer and founder of the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, DC.

Brown, a recipient of the United Nations Environment Prize, added, “But that climate system is no more. The earth’s climate system is now changing. And with each passing year, the climate system and the agricultural system are more and more out of sync with each other…making it more difficult for farmers to expand production fast enough to keep up with (world) demand (for food).”

A woman holds bags of rice at a market in Abidjan. Some economists say food scarcity and rising prices could lead to social instability.
A woman holds bags of rice at a market in Abidjan. Some economists say food scarcity and rising prices could lead to social instability.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that food production must be boosted by 70 percent by 2050 to meet growing demand.

But across the globe, and especially in Africa, there are “serious drops” in food output because of increases in the volume and intensity of heat waves, droughts and floods, explained Tanzanian agricultural economist Ephraim Nkonya.

Sir Gordon Conway, professor of international development at Imperial College in London, said more extreme weather events will happen in Africa because of climate change.

“You’ll get big droughts and big floods in many countries. Often a country will have both more droughts and more floods at the same time,” predicted the former chief scientist at Britain’s Department for International Development.

Environmental experts say the extreme weather events are exacerbated by global warming, principally caused by harmful gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, from the burning of coal for energy.

It could ‘bring down civilization’

Brown has estimated that for every one degree C increase in temperature, yields of staple grains will drop by 10 percent. Large parts of Africa could warm by four degrees C by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Conway warned that famine in Africa could spike dramatically in the near future as a result of more droughts, desertification and dwindling water supplies. Resulting reductions in crop yields, he said, could be as much as 50 percent by 2020 and 90 percent by 2100.

“There are now more very dry spells in parts of Africa in the main cropping seasons, compounded by more days over 30 degrees C. The more days over 30 degrees, the greater will be the reduction in yields.”

Nkonya said, “Less food on world markets will mean that food will be more expensive and this scenario is already unfolding.” The economist analyzes the effects of climate change on agriculture and food production in Africa for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Nkonya said higher food prices are leading to “more social instability” everywhere. “This we have seen from riots against more expensive food, including in African nations,” such as Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Senegal. He added, “These could soon become more widespread across Africa.”

Brown, whom the Washington Post has described as “one of the world’s most influential thinkers,” said the potential for food crises in poor countries is “the biggest threat to global stability” and one that could “bring down civilization.”

Face of African agriculture transformed

Nkonya said climate change would be particularly bad for African agriculture because the continent is almost completely reliant on rain, not controlled irrigation, to grow food.

He pointed out that Africa is also especially vulnerable to more intense droughts and floods as about 70 percent of its population “survives by farming” and a third of the region’s income is generated by agriculture.

“If agriculture collapses, Africa collapses,” said Nkonya. He said future dry conditions could lead to “considerable” decreases in outputs of two of Africa’s staple foods, maize and rice, as these crops need a lot of water to grow.

Spreading dryness would increase hunger in parts of Africa that depend on maize and rice, two crops that depend on plentiful rainfall.
Spreading dryness would increase hunger in parts of Africa that depend on maize and rice, two crops that depend on plentiful rainfall.

In some areas where maize now thrives, Nkonya predicted, its cultivation will be “impossible” because of sustained dry conditions. He suggested that higher temperatures could soon change the face of African food production, with a corresponding transformation of continental diets. Farmers, he said, will be forced to switch to crops that can grow in dry areas, such as cassava and millet.

Nkonya said hotter weather will boost numbers and varieties of pests and crop diseases. He added, “Because most African farmers don’t have the technical capacity to combat this, either with pesticides or with crops resistant to pests, food production will decrease.”

‘Governments will fall’

According to the FAO, just three crops – rice, maize and wheat – provide 60 percent of the world’s food. But Brown expects potentially disastrous decreases in their production because of climate change. “It’s already happening,” he said, citing recent examples from around the world.

“Last year, because of the intense heat and drought in western Russia, the Russian grain harvest dropped from roughly 100 million tons to 60 million tons,” Brown explained. “That severely reduced world grain stocks. It led to dramatic rises in grain prices and in food prices everywhere.”

Scientists say a one meter rise in sea level would cover a large part of the Mekong Delta, the heart of Vietnam's rice industry.
Scientists say a one meter rise in sea level would cover a large part of the Mekong Delta, the heart of Vietnam's rice industry.

Then, earlier this year, the world food supply suffered a further blow when severe heat and drought struck in the U.S., the world’s leading grain producer.

“So once again this year we’re going to see a reduction in world grain stocks, and grain prices are going to continue high and could go higher and food prices are the highest on record,” said Brown. “We may now be in a situation of chronic shortages and high and rising food prices.”

If this is so, the scientist said, it is “very bad news” for the world. “It’s going to create more and more political instability in the world and there’ll be more and more failing states,” he maintained.

Brown said it is “scary” but feasible to imagine a heat wave on the same scale as the Russian event striking the U.S., which grows more than 40 percent of the world’s grain, in the near future. If this happened, he said, the implications would be dire.

“That would have been an extraordinary shock to the world grain market. We would have seen grain prices climbing to levels we’ve never imagined before. In many of the lower income grain importing countries, they simply would not have been able to import enough grain for their people,” Brown explained.

If there are big crop failures in top food producers such as the U.S., China and Europe, he said it will lead to “violent food riots in country after country” and “governments will literally fall.”

Greatest threat to global food security

Brown also warned that the world “could pay the price” for not giving enough attention to the “very real” potential of a catastrophic food crisis in Asia as a direct result of climate change.

He said warmer temperatures in the region mean that glaciers, especially in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau, are melting and “shrinking significantly” and that some smaller glaciers have already disappeared.

Brown explained, “It is the ice melts from these glaciers that help sustain the major rivers of Asia during dry seasons and the irrigation systems dependent on those rivers. If the glaciers disappear, so will wheat and rice production in Asia.”

Kenya's Turkana region shows effects of severe drought affecting Horn of Africa,
Kenya's Turkana region shows effects of severe drought affecting Horn of Africa,

China and India are the world’s top producers of wheat and rice. “Therefore, the melting of these glaciers (in Asia) coupled with the depletion of aquifers present the most massive threat to food security the world has ever faced,” said Brown.

He added, “I don’t think that many people have a clue of just what a disaster the melting of glaciers on the Tibetan plateau alone would be. It could shrink the grain harvest in China and thus lead the Chinese into the world grain market to buy large quantities of grain, competing with consumers around the world for the global grain harvest, driving up world food prices.”

As a result, he suggested, people especially in developing countries would suffer, starve and die.

Sea level danger

Brown said the possibility of a significant rise in sea level because of warmer temperatures melting ice in polar regions represented another challenge to world food security, especially in Africa.

“Even a one meter rise in sea level would create immense problems in the world, including in Asia,” he stated. “It would inundate large parts of the rice-growing river deltas.”

According to a World Bank study, a one meter increase would cover a large part of the Mekong Delta, the heart of the rice industry in Vietnam, which is the second largest rice exporter worldwide.

While China and India produce the most rice, they use it to feed their domestic populations and export comparatively little.

Thailand has long been the largest rice exporter. But recent floods, worsened by the effects of climate change, say environmentalists, have destroyed its rice crops. This has sparked price increases all over the world, and has ensured that many poorer people can’t afford the more expensive rice.

For millions of Africans, rice is a staple food. Africa is the second largest regional importer of rice in the world. South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal and Ivory Coast are all among the world’s leading importers of rice.

New technologies

Top scientist Gordon Conway is convinced that new technologies, such as genetic modification of seeds to make them drought tolerant, must be the most important part of Africa’s strategy to combat climate change and its threat to the continent’s ability to grow food.

However, IFPRI’s Ephraim Nkonya said there’s little indication that the necessary investments are being made in new advances in agricultural research in Africa at the moment. “Adaptation to climate change, for example using crop varieties that are adapted to drought – the adoption rate (in Africa) is very low,” the agricultural economist pointed out.

Nkonya said the new technologies are currently too expensive for Africa.

Peter Holmgren, an agricultural scientist and director of a division of the FAO concerned with climate change, is more optimistic. He said the phenomenon is an opportunity for the world to improve its methods of producing food.

“I think there is a great potential to achieve better, more productive, smarter agriculture in many places,” he said. “We are on the path to investing in agriculture that looks at both improved productivity and income to farmers and at the same time offers more resilience to fluctuations in prices as well as to weather conditions.”

But Nkonya said this path is still a long way off, especially for Africa. He added, “The problem is that the effects of climate change, like droughts and floods, that harm food production are already here, and there is no sign of the funding or the political will that’s needed to boost agriculture in Africa.”

You May Like

Nearly Every Job in America Mapped in Detail

A nifty map pinpoints practically every job in the United States, revealing the economic character of America’s metropolitan areas, which also helps to inform the local culture

Corruption Busting Is Her Game

South African activist is building 'international online community of thousands of corruption fighters'

Former SAF Businessman Gives Books, Love of Reading to Students

Steve Tsakaris now involved in nonprofit Read to Rise, which distributes books in Soweto, encourages lower-grade primary school students to read

This forum has been closed.
There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

By the Numbers

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Belgium-Germany Border Remains Porous, Even As Manhunt For Paris Attacker Continuesi
Ayesha Tanzeem
November 25, 2015 10:46 PM
One of the suspected gunmen in the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, Salah Abdeslam, evaded law enforcement, made his way to Belgium, and is now believed to have fled to Germany. VOA correspondent Ayesha Tanzeem makes the journey across the border from Belgium into Germany to see how porous the borders really are.

Video Belgium-Germany Border Remains Porous, Even As Manhunt For Paris Attacker Continues

One of the suspected gunmen in the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, Salah Abdeslam, evaded law enforcement, made his way to Belgium, and is now believed to have fled to Germany. VOA correspondent Ayesha Tanzeem makes the journey across the border from Belgium into Germany to see how porous the borders really are.

Video Islamic State Unfazed by Losses in Iraq, Syria

Progress in the U.S.-led effort to beat Islamic State on its home turf in Iraq and Syria has led some to speculate the terror group may be growing desperate. But counterterror officials say that is not the case, and warn the recent spate of terror attacks is merely part of the group’s evolution. VOA National Security correspondent Jeff Seldin has more.

Video Taiwan Looks for Role in South China Sea Dispute

The Taiwanese government is one of several that claims territory in the hotly contested South China Sea, but Taipei has long been sidelined in the dispute, overshadowed by China. Now, as the Philippines challenges Beijing’s claims in an international court at The Hague, Taipei is looking to publicly assert its claims. VOA’s Bill Ide has more from Beijing.

Video Syrian Refugees in US Express Concern for Those Left Behind

Syrian immigrants in the United States are concerned about the negative tide of public opinion and the politicians who want to block a U.S. plan to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees. Zlatica Hoke reports many Americans are fighting to dispel suspicions linking refugees to terrorists.

Video After Paris Attacks, France Steps Up Fight Against IS

The November 13 Paris attacks have drawn increased attention to Syria, where many of the suspected perpetrators are said to have received training. French President Francois Hollande is working to build a broad international coalition to defeat Islamic State in Syria and in Iraq. Zlatica Hoke reports.

Video US, Cambodian Navies Pair Up in Gulf of Thailand

The U.S. Navy has deployed one of its newest and most advanced ships to Cambodia to conduct joint training drills in the Gulf of Thailand. Riding hull-to-hull with Cambodian ships, the seamen of the USS Fort Worth are executing joint-training drills that will help build relations in Southeast Asia. David Boyle reports for VOA from Preah Sihanouk province.

Video Americans Sharpen Focus on Terrorism

Washington will be quieter than usual this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, even as Americans across the nation register heightened concerns over possible terrorist threats. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports new polling data from ABC News and the Washington Post newspaper show an electorate increasingly focused on security issues after the deadly Islamic State attacks in Paris.

Video World Leaders Head to Paris for Climate Deal

Heads of state from nearly 80 countries are heading to Paris (November 30-December 11) to craft a global climate change agreement. The new accord will replace the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change that expired in 2012.

Video Uncertain Future for Syrian Refugee Resettlement in Illinois

For the trickle of Syrian refugees finding new homes in the Midwest city of Chicago, the call to end resettlement in many U.S. states is adding another dimension to their long journey fleeing war. Organizations working to help them integrate say the backlash since the Paris attacks is both harming and helping their efforts to provide refugees sanctuary. VOA's Kane Farabaugh reports.

Video Creating Physical Virtual Reality With Tiny Drones

As many computer gamers know, virtual reality is a three-dimensional picture, projected inside special googles. It can fool your brain into thinking the computer world is the real world. But If you try to touch it, it’s not there. Now Canadian researchers say it may be possible to create a physical virtual reality using tiny drones. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Video New American Indian Village Takes Visitors Back in Time

There is precious little opportunity to experience what life was like in the United States before its colonization by European settlers. Now, an American Indian village built in a park outside Washington is taking visitors back in time to experience the way of life of America's indigenous people. Carol Pearson narrates this report from VOA's June Soh.

Video Even With Hometown Liberated, Yazidi Refugees Fear Return

While the northern Iraqi town of Sinjar has been liberated from Islamic State forces, it's not clear whether Yazidi residents who fled the militants will now return home. VOA’s Mahmut Bozarslan talked with Yazidis, a religious and ethnic minority, at a Turkish refugee camp in Diyarbakır. Robert Raffaele narrates his report.

Video Nairobi Tailors Make Pope Francis’ Vestments

To ensure the pope is properly attired during his visit, the Kenya Conference of Catholic Bishops asked the Dolly Craft Sewing Project in the Nairobi slum of Kangemi to make the pope's vestments, the garments he will wear during the various ceremonies. Jill Craig reports.

Video Cross-Border Terrorism Puts Europe’s Passport-Free Travel in Doubt

The fallout from the Islamic State terror attacks in Paris has put the future of Europe’s passport-free travel area, known as the "Schengen Zone," in doubt. Several of the perpetrators were known to intelligence agencies, but were not intercepted. Henry Ridgwell reports from London European ministers are to hold an emergency meeting Friday in Brussels to look at ways of improving security.

Video El Niño Brings Unexpected Fish From Mexico to California

Fish in an unexpected spectrum of sizes, shapes and colors are moving north, through El Niño's warm currents from Mexican waters to the Pacific Ocean off California’s coast. El Nino is the periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. As Faiza Elmasry tells us, this phenomenon thrills scientists and gives anglers the chance of a once-in-a-lifetime big catch. Faith Lapidus narrates.

Video Terrorism in Many Forms Continues to Plague Africa

While the world's attention is on Paris in the wake of Friday night's deadly attacks, terrorism from various sides remains a looming threat in many African countries. Nigerian cities have been targeted this week by attacks many believe were staged by the violent Islamist group Boko Haram. In addition, residents in many regions are forced to flee their homes as they are terrorized by armed militias. Zlatica Hoke reports.

Video Study: Underage Marriage Rate Higher for Females in Pakistan

While attitudes about the societal role of females in Pakistan are evolving, research by child advocacy group Plan International suggests that underage marriage of girls remains a particularly big issue in the country. VOA’s Ayesha Tanzeem reports how such marriages leads to further social problems.

VOA Blogs