News

France's Presidential Frontrunner Gives Markets the Jitters

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, center, arrives at Brive airport in Brive, Central France, after the first round of the presidential election, April 22, 2012.
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, center, arrives at Brive airport in Brive, Central France, after the first round of the presidential election, April 22, 2012.
Lisa Bryant

The eurozone's sovereign debt crisis has helped topple half a dozen European leaders. It looks like French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be next. Polls show Sarkozy's Socialist rival, Francois Hollande, winning France's May 6 runoff election.  But the prospect of an Hollande presidency is making markets - and analysts - nervous.

It's been nearly 20 years since France had a Socialist president. That may change in just over a week. French polls all predict Socialist contender Francois Hollande will beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of presidential elections on May 6.

In press conferences and interviews - like one on French radio Friday - Hollande outlines an economic strategy that includes more taxes for the rich and more spending to stimulate growth.

But Hollande says his first action would target the wider eurozone crisis that is now in its third year.  Hollande says he will renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty agreed to last year in order to promote economic growth.

The Socialist candidate is getting applause from his supporters - but not from markets, which briefly dipped after he won the first round of French elections last Sunday.  Analysts like economics professor Tomasz Michalski, of the HEC business school in Paris, also see little reason to cheer.

"First of all, Hollande is going to increase very drastically taxes in France. In the short run the increase in taxes is going to lower the budget deficit," he said. "But in the long run it's not a good growth strategy…this is going to keep talent away. And France desperately needs new businesses, desperately needs entrepreneurs to keep the economy going."

Other experts agree. Britain's leading The Economist magazine is even more critical, calling Hollande's economic prescriptions "dangerous."

Analyst Philip Whyte, of the London-based Center for European Reform, says he understands why markets are jittery about an Hollande presidency.

"But of course, once he's in office, he will very quickly be confronted by some of the constraints of office and some of those constraints might be imposed by the bond markets," he said."

Hollande's growth prescription for Europe even got some support this week by European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi, who called on governments to invest in jobs and growth along with spending cuts.

Jobs and economic growth are top concerns of French voters like 54-year-old Fatna Chouaikh.  Chouaikh believes Hollande can turn things around.   She says Hollande is competent, hard-working and has what it takes to bring France out of its economic doldrums.

Under current President Sarkozy, the economy shrank and unemployment soared to nearly 10 percent.

Most analysts agree that Sarkozy is not to blame for a global crisis that has sent many other economies tumbling as well. Whyte, of the Center for European Reform, credits Sarkozy for pushing through a few key reforms - like raising the retirement age - and for his initial leadership in the eurozone crisis.

But Whyte faults the French president for letting German Chancellor Angela Merkel dictate eurozone policies today. And overall, he gives Sarkozy's performance a mediocre review.

"The problem with Sarkozy is that he really doesn't have an economic vision," Whyte said. "He's a man of action. But he has no real coherence to much of what he does. If you look at his performance over five years as president, there's not been a terribly clear economic path he's forged."

Professor Michalski offers similar criticism.

"The measures that Sarkozy is proposing in this campaign do not form a coherent long-term program," he said. "Rather, they're small measures addressed to particular issues. So I'm very skeptical."

Ultimately, smaller parties may shape the economic policies of either an Hollande or a Sarkozy presidency.  Hollande is counting on far-left and centrist voters to win the May 6 runoff.  Sarkozy is courting those who voted for the far-right in the first round - and who are skeptical of the European Union and of taking economic orders from Brussels.

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Phillipe
May 03, 2012 2:34 PM
Looks more like France will make the same error electing Hollande as USA made electing Obama.
As the article cites Philip Whyte: "But of course, once he's in office, he will very quickly be confronted by some of the constraints of office and some of those constraints might be imposed by the bond markets," he said." The mythology that there is this evil 1% will continue....
Margaret Thatcher still rings true.

by: Jacques
April 30, 2012 5:10 PM
I just think that unless Mr Romney can somehow restore common sense confidence back to the business community Mr Hollande may well win as France can not risk privatizing any big rail, utility assets. After all how can the President convince the electorate to support change when he has spent his Presidency patching holes in a helium balloon? Bonne chance Mr le Président.

by: Jean-Marc
April 29, 2012 12:03 AM
There is no surprise that The Economist, the voice of the 1% richest people, fears the perspective of the victory of Mr. Hollande in the next French presidential election. But, considering the disastrous performance of conservative austerity policies enforced in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and the UK, we can doubt The Economist's wisdom.

by: Jean-Marc
April 28, 2012 11:53 PM
Foreigners may not be aware that beyond economy, this election will be won over value issues. Mr. Sarkozy blames the unemployed, the poors, the immigrants and the labour unions of being responsible of the crisis. He now embraces far right views about immigration. Mr. Hollande blames the banksters and the 1% most wealthy and promises to restore more justice, equality and solidarity. This contrast heats up the campaign to unprecedented level of passion on both sides.

by: Jean-Marc
April 28, 2012 11:45 PM
During his 5-years term, Mr. Sarkozy outrageously supported the rich with 50 billion euros of tax cuts and approximately 50 billions more of tax loopholes that benefited the 1% richest only. He now promises to raise the VAT and to further reduce social benefits. Meanwhile Mr. Hollande promises first to reduces these fiscal gifts and restore more equality in the taxation system. This contrast might explain the more than advantageous polls in his favor in the first place.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
A Small Oasis on Kabul's Outskirts Provides Relief From Security Tensionsi
X
May 26, 2015 11:11 PM
When people in Kabul want to get away from the city and relax, many choose Qargha Lake, a small resort on the outskirts of Kabul. Ayesha Tanzeem visited and talked with people about the precious oasis.
Video

Video A Small Oasis on Kabul's Outskirts Provides Relief From Security Tensions

When people in Kabul want to get away from the city and relax, many choose Qargha Lake, a small resort on the outskirts of Kabul. Ayesha Tanzeem visited and talked with people about the precious oasis.
Video

Video Film Festival Looks at Indigenous Peoples, Culture Conflict

A recent Los Angeles film festival highlighted the plight of people caught between two cultures. Mike O'Sullivan has more on the the Garifuna International Film Festival, a Los Angeles forum created by a woman from Central America who wants the world to know more about her culture.
Video

Video Kenyans Lament Losing Sons to al-Shabab

There is agony, fear and lost hope in the Kenyan town of Isiolo, a key target of a new al-Shabab recruitment drive. VOA's Mohammed Yusuf visits Isiolo to speak with families and at least one man who says he was a recruiter.
Video

Video Scientists Say Plankton More Important Than Previously Thought

Tiny ocean creatures called plankton are mostly thought of as food for whales and other large marine animals, but a four-year global study discovered, among other things, that plankton are a major source of oxygen on our planet. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video US-led Coalition Gives Some Weapons to Iraqi Troops

In a video released Tuesday from the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, Iraqi forces and U.S.-led coalition troops survey a cache of weapons supplied to help Iraq liberate Mosul from Islamic State group. According to a statement provided with the video, the ministry and the U.S.-led coaltion troops have started ''supplying the 16th army division with medium and light weapons in preparation to liberate Mosul and nearby areas from Da'esh (Arabic acronym for Islamic State group).''
Video

Video Amnesty International: 'Overwhelming Evidence' of War Crimes in Ukraine

Human rights group Amnesty International says there is overwhelming evidence of ongoing war crimes in Ukraine, despite a tentative cease-fire with pro-Russian rebels. Researchers interviewed more than 30 prisoners from both sides of the conflict and all but one said they were tortured. Henry Ridgwell reports for VOA from London.
Video

Video Washington Parade Honors Those Killed Serving in US Military

Every year, on the last Monday in the month of May, millions of Americans honor the memories of those killed while serving in the armed forces. Memorial Day is a tradition that dates back to the 19th Century. While many people celebrate the federal holiday with a barbecue and a day off from work, for those who’ve served in the military, it’s a special day to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. Arash Arabasadi reports for VOA from Washington.
Video

Video Kenya’s Capital Sees Rise in Shisha Parlors

In Kenya, the smoking of shisha, a type of flavored tobacco, is the latest craze. Patrons are flocking to shisha parlors to smoke and socialize. But the practice can be addictive and harmful, though many dabblers may not realize the dangers, according to a new review. Lenny Ruvaga has more on the story for VOA from Nairobi, Kenya.
Video

Video Rolling Thunder Run Reveals Changed Attitudes Towards Vietnam War

For many US war veterans, the Memorial Day holiday is an opportunity to look back at a divisive conflict in the nation’s history and to remember those who did not make it home.
Video

Video Female American Soldiers: Healing Through Filmmaking

According to the United States Defense Department, there are more than 200-thousand women serving in the U.S. Armed Forces.  Like their male counterparts, females have experiences that can be very traumatic.  VOA's Bernard Shusman tells us about a program that is helping some American women in the military heal through filmmaking.

VOA Blogs