News / Middle East

Experts: Looking Beyond Egypt's Latest Revolution

A supporter holds a poster of Egypt's Islamist President Mohammed Morsi with Arabic that reads,
A supporter holds a poster of Egypt's Islamist President Mohammed Morsi with Arabic that reads, "Sisi traitor," during a rally, in Nasser City, Cairo, Egypt, July 4, 2013.
Mohamed Elshinnawi
Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, took office on June 30, 2012, only to be deposed by the military after barely completing his first year in office. Backed by widespread popular support, the military suspended the constitution and named Adly Mansour, chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, interim president until fresh elections can be held.

While many experts believe the military will likely remain in control over the short term and continue influencing events behind the scenes after the constitution is amended and restored, others question whether the military intervention has already undermined the country’s longer term prospects for popular democratic rule.

“[The military] has produced a road map for the coming transition that appears to be more of a loophole than an actual text,” says Nathan Brown, Senior Associate, Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But behind it seems to be a desire among most civilian actors that the military will manage the process in a way that restores civilian rule.”

But Sahar Aziz, associate professor at Texas Wesleyan School of Law and a member of the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association, calls military governance the death knell of democracy, irrespective of the military’s purportedly good intentions.

“Not only are initial promises of short-term rule quickly broken,” she says, “but the military is simply unqualified to govern a nation of more than 80 million people, of whom about 25 percent live below the poverty line.”

But as elections take place — and the military has promised to organize them quickly — Brown says established non-Islamist groups who lost out to the Brotherhood in past votes may be aiming to make a comeback.

“The youth leaders of the Tamarrud [’Rebellion’] campaign that sought Morsi’s ouster will be major players over the longer term as well, if they can maintain some level of popular mobilization and devise a political strategy,” he says, adding that Brotherhood leaders can still have an effect on events by deciding whether and in what ways they will resist the coup.

“Ultimately, however, the conservative Islamists ‘Salafis’ may come out as a long-term winner, using the blow to the Brotherhood to move to the fore among the Islamist segment of the population,” he says.

Egyptian society is far more divided than after the revolution two years ago, Brown notes,  warning that the transition to democracy must be inclusive and the process of building a new government taken seriously.

Asked what are the primary political lessons from 2011, Brown says Morsi’s aborted presidency was marked by several key errors.

“First, he made a strategic miscalculation when he decided that the opposition would moan and groan but could not really obstruct him,” says Brown. “Second, he was unable to reach Egyptians outside of his base.Even when he tried, his language alienated those he tried to attract. And third, he handled his final crisis poorly. Morsi had an almost impeccable sense of offering the wrong speech at the wrong time.

“Morsi did not have many policy achievements,” he says. “For most Egyptians, conditions got worse during his presidency.”

Aziz, however, says the most important lesson for all current and future politicians is that Egyptians have been forever changed by the 2011 revolution.

“No longer will they be used as pawns by political leaders, even if democratically elected, who engage in illegal governance tactics,” she says.

Will Morsi’s ouster change Islamist tactics? 

While the Muslim Brotherhood’s short-lived rule of Egypt has already cheered as many as it has dismayed, the real impact of its sudden deposition may be yet to be seen for quite some time.

“The coup might convince some Islamists that they will never win power through the political process,” says Brown/ “That would be a dangerous conclusion but not an unexpected one for some Islamist groups.”

For Khaled Fahmy, Chair of the History Department at the American University in Cairo,the Muslim Brotherhood’s biggest mistake was a disastrous reading of the political situation. He suggests the Islamist movement wrongly perceived that winning free and fair elections was what the revolution was all about, and thereby insisted on a winner-takes-all approach, failing to give the opposition credible and meaningful concessions or to include its members in the government.

“People did not take to the streets in Jan-Feb 2011 and risk their lives only to have free and fair elections,” says Fahmy. “And they were not willing to go back home because someone won the presidential elections, until they made sure that this individual appeared to be answering their main demands.”

A new policy challenge for the U.S.

Dennis Ross, former special assistant to U.S. President Barack Obama and senior director of the Central Region on the National Security Council staff, says that  while the United States has limited influence in shaping events in Egypt, it has a stake in what happens there.

“The last thing we want is for Egypt to become a failed state — a reality that would threaten stability in the wider Middle East,” he says. “With conspiracy always rife in Egypt and suspicions of us running deeply, we need to stand on key principles and not for any group or party in Egypt. President Obama had that right in his statement in response to the military's removal of Morsi.”

Obama called on the Egyptian military to respect the rights “of all Egyptian men and women” in the aftermath of Morsi’s removal from power.

“The United States continues to believe firmly that the best foundation for lasting stability in Egypt is a democratic political order with participation from all sides and all political parties —secular and religious, civilian and military,” the statement read.

According to The New York Times, the United States provides Egypt’s military $1.3 billion in aid annually.

For now, Ross says, the U.S. should emphasize the need for a credible political transition that sets a date for new presidential elections; provides for an inclusive approach to the writing of a new constitution; creates ground rules for the election that exclude only those committed to violence; calls on all parties to refrain from violence and ostracizes those who commit it; and that encourages the interim administration to tackle economic needs and not defer dealing with them until after elections.

Experts agree that it is too soon to know whether what has happened in Egypt can move the country in a more hopeful direction.

“In the end, it is Egyptians that have the most to gain from lessons learned and the most to lose for mistakes made,” says Aziz. “The obvious lesson to be learned from the one year Morsi term is that leaders need to be inclusive, with a “no victor, no vanquished” approach, take procedural questions more seriously in deciding how to reconstruct the political system, and learn how to manage their differences.”

You May Like

Philippines, Muslim Rebels Try to Salvage Peace Pact

Peace process faces major setback after botched military operation to find terrorists results in bloody gunbattle between government forces, Moro Islamic Liberation Front fighters More

Republicans Expect Long, Expensive Presidential Battle

Political strategist says eventual winner will be one who can put together strongest coalition of various conservative groups that make up Republican Party More

Video New Wheelchair Is Easier to Use, Increases Mobility

Engineers have come up with a lever-operated design that makes use of easily accessible bicycle technology More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: M. Tawdi from: Cairo
July 07, 2013 9:00 AM
I find it ridiculous to consider it a military coup ignoring the will of 20 million Egyptians in the streets all over Egypt. The military only acted on behalf of the Egyptian people. USA will loose Egypt as an ally if this misconception continues.

by: Paulo Roberto Mattos Luiz from: Brazil
July 06, 2013 8:15 AM
I think that the people in Egypt as well as many people in the Arab World want to separate once and for all religions from politics. The people can´t stand electing democratically a President to govern the country for the interests of his religion and not for everyone's interests. A president should be neutral while governing the country and take no sides on religion.
In Response

by: Terrence from: Australia
July 07, 2013 2:10 AM
I think the Egyptian people will want to completely remove the army from the politics of the country. This was the unfinished business of the revolution. This was also the biggest mistake of the Brotherhood. They did not learn the lesson from Turkey's experience. The first thing that has to happen is get broad consensus among the patriotic groups that the army should not be allowed to play any part in Egyptian politics. The second thing that needs to happen is to decline the $1.25 billion US aid to the army. If there has to be any assistance it must be channelled through the government and spent at the discretion of the govt not of the army. Thirdly, the Brotherhood needs to be a little bit more savvy and diplomatic while governing. Just having good intentions and just rule is not enough. There are powerful national and international elements who are very cunning and who will forever try to impose their agendas in different ways. The government has to manoeuvre through these diplomatically and not take them on all at once.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Liberia's Almost Last Ebola Patient Grateful but Still Grievingi
X
Benno Muchler
March 26, 2015 3:41 PM
Beatrice Yardolo was to make history as Liberia’s last Ebola patient. Liberians recently started counting down 42 days, the period that has to go by without a single new infection until the World Health Organization can declare a country Ebola-free. That countdown stopped on March 20 when there was another new case of Ebola, making Yardolo’s story a reminder that Ebola is far from over. Benno Muchler reports from Monrovia.
Video

Video Liberia's Almost Last Ebola Patient Grateful but Still Grieving

Beatrice Yardolo was to make history as Liberia’s last Ebola patient. Liberians recently started counting down 42 days, the period that has to go by without a single new infection until the World Health Organization can declare a country Ebola-free. That countdown stopped on March 20 when there was another new case of Ebola, making Yardolo’s story a reminder that Ebola is far from over. Benno Muchler reports from Monrovia.
Video

Video Cambodian Land Grabs Threaten Traditional Communities

Indigenous communities in Cambodia's Ratanakiri province say the government’s economic land concession policy is taking away their land and traditional way of life, making many fear that their identity will soon be lost. Local authorities, though, have denied this is the case. VOA's Say Mony went to investigate and filed this report, narrated by Colin Lovett.
Video

Video US, South Korea Conduct Joint Military Exercises

The Eighth U.S. Army Division and the Eighth Republic of Korea Mechanized Infantry Division put on a well orchestrated show of force for the media this week during their joint military training exercises in South Korea. VOA’s Seoul correspondent Brian Padden was there and reports the soldiers were well disciplined both in conducting a complex live fire exercise and in staying on message with the press.
Video

Video Space Program Status Disappoints 'Last Man on the Moon'

One of the films that drew big crowds last week at the annual South by Southwest festival in Austin, Texas, tells the story of the last human being to stand on the moon, U.S. astronaut Eugene Cernan. It has been 42 years since Cernan returned from the moon and he laments that no one else has gone there since. VOA’s Greg Flakus reports.
Video

Video Young Filmmakers Shine Spotlight on Giving Back

A group of student filmmakers from across the United States joined President Barack Obama at the White House this month for the second annual White House Student Film Festival. Fifteen short films were officially selected from more than 1,500 entries by students aged 6 through 18. The filmmakers and their families then joined the president and a group of celebrities for a screening of their films. VOA’s Julie Taboh reports.
Video

Video VOA Exclusive: Interview with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, during his first visit as president to Washington, gave a one-on-one interview with VOA Afghan Service reporter Said Suleiman Ashna, about his request for a change in U.S. troop levels, the threat from the Islamic State, and repairing relations with the United States and Pakistan. The interview was held at Blair House, late Sunday, in Pashto.
Video

Video California Science Center Tells Story of Dead Sea Scrolls

The ancient manuscripts were uncovered in the mid-20th century, and they are still yielding clues about life and religious beliefs in ancient Israel. As VOA's Mike O'Sullivan reports, an exhibit in Los Angeles shows how modern science is bringing the history of these ancient documents to life.
Video

Video Angelina Jolie Takes Another Bold Step

Hollywood actress and filmmaker Angelina Jolie has revealed she had her ovaries and fallopian tubes removed to lower her odds of getting cancer. Doctors say the huge publicity over her decision will help raise awareness about the importance of cancer screening. VOA’s George Putic has more

All About America

Circumventing Censorship

An Internet Primer for Healthy Web Habits

As surveillance and censoring technologies advance, so, too, do new tools for your computer or mobile device that help protect your privacy and break through Internet censorship.
More