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Erin: Welcome to T2A webchat for Wednesday, October 3rd. We’re discussing the Burma crisis with Christina Fink and Kyaw zan Tha. Dr. Fink is a Thailand-based Burma expert who is author of Living Silence: Burma Under Military Rule. She is an anthropologist who teaches for an American study-abroad program in Thailand and for a Burmese educational program on international politics. Kyaw zan Tha is an editor in VOA Burmese Service. Tension over the government’s fuel price increase has become a widespread protest against 45 years of oppressive military rule. Burmese security forces are maintaining a tight grip on the streets of Rangoon, warning residents that those who participated in last week’s protests will be found and arrested. This comes after a United Nations rights body condemned the military-led government's crackdown on peaceful opposition protests. Diplomats say they are told that authorities are conducting raids under the cover of night and picking up people. Burma's leaders have said that 10 people died last week during the crackdown, and they blamed the uprising on 'political opportunists.' Burmese dissident groups say up to 200 protesters were killed.
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Marcien, Cameroon (email): A Japanese video journalist was killed in Myanmar. What type of diplomatic relationship will now result between Yangon and Tokyo? The worst type?
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Christina: Japan is currently considering suspending its human resources development aid, which is meant to help foster a market economy, but not its aid for health projects. Japan is not considering suspending trade or freezing the assets of Burma’s top leaders.
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Marcien, Cameroon (email): Will the sanctions adopted by President Bush be sufficient in stopping the terror in Myanmar?
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Mr. Tha: I don't think it will because American sanctions have been in place for some time but there is no tangible impact. Unless China puts economic pressure on Burma, the junta will continue.
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Christina: The most important thing President Bush can do right now is to pressure China to use its leverage over the Burmese regime.
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Marcien, Cameroon (email): Why is the Chinese government continuing to support the Burmese government?
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Christina: The Chinese government is continuing to support the Burmese government because of geostrategic and economic interests. Earlier this year, the Chinese government signed a deal with the Burmese regime to buy natural gas from off of Burma’s Arakan coast. The Chinese government is also planning to build two inland pipelines from Burma’s coast to Southern China. One pipeline will transport gas from Burma while the other pipeline will transport oil coming from the Middle East. Currently, Middle Eastern oil must be transported through the Straits of Malacca, which is infested with pirates and could possibly be blocked by the United States or India in the event of an international conflict.
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Mr. Tha: I agree with Christina and add that China always wants a stable Burma. The military government is the only stable government that China perceives with no substitute. If the opposition can prove it could provide a stable government alternative, then China may be able to change its perception.
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Botimi Obed Jacob: I think the Burmese government has a right to sovereignty, but when that right is used to suppress the population, just like what has been happening, I think the international community and most especially, the world powers should try their best to see that the government stops such oppression of the people. If the military government performs fairly, the people will not stand-up through protests against it, but when the government fails to act fairly, the people will protest against it. I think pressure needs to be mounted on China, so that indirectly, it can pressure the Burmese government.
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Christina: I agree that China and India should be pressured to do more on Burma. If both countries threaten to suspend the sale of military equipment and major investment projects in Burma, it would have a major impact on the regime.
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Dave: What information do you have about the fate of the monks who were demonstrating?
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Christina: A few of the monks have been released but hundreds if not thousands more are still being detained. The few reports that have come out indicate that the monks have been disrobed in the detention centers and interrogated day and night.
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Mr. Tha: And the released monks are not those who participated in the demonstrations but were taken from the monasteries, not from the roads. Yes, they were disrobed, beaten and interrogated.
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Rick: What countries are allied with the current junta in control of Burma? Will proposed sanctions have any impact if so how?
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Christina: China, India and Russia have defended the Burma regime and have economic interests in Burma. The U.S. and the European Union are tightening their sanctions on the regime. The sanctions will only have an effect if countries like China and India also do more to pressure the regime.
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Rick: Mr. Tha - How can the dissidents prove they can provide a stable government with the military junta holding such a tight control over the affairs of Burma?
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Mr. Tha: They have to demonstrate unity among themselves first. It is very difficult for the opposition without their leader, Aung san Suu Kyi, to achieve that necessary unity.
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Botimi Obed Jacob: what will the international community do about the Burmese government's suppression, if the military government does not stop?
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Christina: The international community will continue to urge China to do more and it's possible that some countries will consider boycotting the 2008 Olympics in China if China does not use its leverage to help bring about a settlement in Burma.
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Wondwossen, Ethiopia (email): Why do Burma’s military leaders act so cruelly towards their own people? Wouldn’t it make things easier to rule peacefully? What is their problem?
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Mr. Tha: Because the mentality of the Burmese military has not changed since pre-colonial times under Burmese kings, it maintains a stance aimed at invading other countries and operating in a brutal way. That mentality has not changed. During the independence struggle, the Burmese army was formed under the World War Two Japanese model. Aung San suu Kyi's father was assassinated before having a chance to reform the military and his successor Ne Win has chosen to continue the original model
Christina: The military leaders want to crush the demonstrations before they become unstoppable. The rulers are afraid of what could happen to them if military rule were overturned. Also, they never want to admit that they have made mistakes in their policies, because admitting mistakes is seen as a sign of weakness. They also believe that the military is the only institution which can hold the country together and that they have made great sacrifices for the country.
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Dave: There is a report that a Burmese military officer defected to Thailand because he could not obey his orders to arrest monks. Is there any indication of significant dissension within the military over the crackdown? How important do you think such dissension would be in putting pressure on the junta?
Mr. Tha: As a journalist, first, I have to say the fact that the military official defected to the opposition groups -- this has not been confirmed by our opposition sources yet -- but regarding possible dissension, it is possible. Some soldiers are very pious and it is very difficult for them to beat the monks, but the military was always able to solve its problems among itself because its unity is essential to its survival, so it will not reveal any disagreement.
Christina: I also believe that many officers in the Burma army do not want to shoot the monks, but the number of officers who dare to openly disobey orders will depend on whether they think the regime will be to crush the opposition or not.
Mr. Tha: I want to clarify my earlier response that we are still waiting for confirmation of this defection from independent sources.
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Botimi Obed Jacob: If China continues it's support for the junta regime in Burma, then the international community needs to sanction China or mount much more pressure on China. I known China is a nation that suppress its citizen's too, so that's why Beijing is supporting the junta in Burma. China needs to be taught a lesson.
Christina: China is increasingly recognizing that it has a responsibility in its relations with other countries and its position on Sudan has changed significantly in recent months and hopefully China will do the same with regard to Burma.
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Botimi Obed Jacob: I think when some countries boycott the 2008 Olympic games in China that will teach China a lesson. What will be the way forward for Burma from here?
Mr. Tha: If there is no change towards democracy or improvement in the situation, history will repeat itself. Since 1962 when the military first came to power, it took 26 years before the 1988 uprising...but there has been no change since 1988, so it will not take as long for history to repeat itself if there is no progress.
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Erin: For Mr. Tha: A Japanese journalist was recently killed while taking photos of soldiers firing on protesters. Are journalists, both foreign and domestic, especially in danger of being hurt or killed by soldiers or police?
Mr. Tha: Of course, journalists are on the nerves of the military junta because there is no freedom of press in this closed society. After this incident, the military is very angry with the journalists who are reporting what is happening inside the country. But it is not only the journalists who are providing information to the outside world. Regular Burmese citizens are telling the Burma story to the outside world.
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Erin: For Christina: How does the current uprising compare to the one that occurred in 1988?
Christina: The protests in 1988 were also fueled by an economic crisis and the military’s inhumane treatment of some of the first protestors. One important difference is that this time, photographs and videos have been immediately available, documenting the brutality of the troops against peaceful demonstrators and bystanders and arousing people’s anger both inside and outside the country. Also, the international community is much more aware today of the problems in Burma and responded much more quickly than in 1988.
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Erin: For Christina: A group calling itself the People’s Patriotic Armed Forces Alliance has circulated a declaration calling for officers of the Burmese military to disobey if ordered to fire on protesters. What does this say about the political situation in Burma?
Christina: Many officers in the Burma Army do not want to fire, or give orders to fire, on the monks in particular. Most officers are Buddhists, and to injure or kill monks is an unspeakable sin. Also, since the monks were marching peacefully and reciting a chant for compassion for all beings, it is difficult to justify an order to shoot. Nevertheless, officers may be worried that if the regime maintains its grip on power, they will be severely punished if they disobey orders. They may try to avoid shooting, but the number of officers who dare to openly disobey orders will depend on whether they think the regime is going to be able to crush the movement or not.
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Erin: For Mr. Tha: With the general ban on foreign journalists entering the country and now the cut of internet access, what else can the Burmese government do to stop the flow of information abroad and what else can journalists do to ensure that reports continue flowing out of Burma?
Mr. Tha: It is very difficult for the military junta to close the mouth of the 50 million people. The Burmese government may squeeze the movement of journalists inside the country but there are many ordinary citizens able to get information out.
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Erin: For Mr. Tha: What challenges do foreign journalists face in relying on untrained sources for their information, usually Burmese citizens acting independently?
Mr. Tha: That is where our editorial skills come into play. We need at least two independent sources to confirm a story and issue it. So when we have a tip, we have to check other sources. So some people are reluctant to provide a tip but a yes or no to confirm from an independent source is sufficient. It is very challenging when so many rumors are swirling around so we must be very careful.
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Erin: For Christina: What role has Aung San Suu Kyi, the Prime Minister elect currently held under house arrest, played in these protests?
Christina: She hasn’t played any direct role, although some of the protestors have called for her and other political prisoners’ release. Aung San Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for 12 out of the last 18 years. Her most recent period of detention began in May 2003, after regime-supported thugs attempted to ambush and kill her when she was making a tour of upper Burma. She survived, but she has been locked away ever since, with her phone line cut off and no ability to contact her party or the outside world. However, on one of the early days of the demonstrations, a procession of monks suddenly turned down her street and was able to briefly recite chants in front of her house. She came to the gate and cried as they prayed. The United Nations’ Secretary General’s envoy to Burma was able to meet with her twice in the past few days, but the contents of their discussions have not yet been disclosed.
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Dave: Do you think things will change when the junta's elderly leader Than Shwe dies? Is he grooming a successor?
Mr. Tha: It is very difficult to have a liberal minded officer to replace the senior general because the junior officers are less educated than the older generals. Elderly generals, some of them, have foreign training, study abroad for military training. When they came to power, they never sent younger officials outside the country for training. Their fighting skills may be better but their academic skills are limited.
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Botimi Obed Jacob: I think Aung San Suu Kyi's release will lead to the end of the protests.
Christina: Aung San Suu Kyi's release from hosue arrest would be an important first step but is it not enough. All the others arrested need to be released.
Mr. Tha: Protests are only a means not an end, so if Aung San Suu Kyi is released, maybe the means would need to be changed, but the struggle will have to continue.
Christina: Genuine economic and political reforms are required in addition to the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all the others who have been arrested.
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Erin: Final VOA question for Christina: What will be the outcome of the uprising? What do the Burmese people want to change?
Christina: The movement appears to be largely crushed at the moment, and people are terrified as they learn of houses and monasteries continuing to be raided at night with people being taken away to undisclosed locations and for unknown periods of time. At the same time, people are extremely angry. The brewing resentment at the way innocent bystanders and peaceful monks have been treated can explode again at any time. Poor people may find it impossible to survive, and it is likely that more people will leave the country as refugees and migrant workers, impacting neighboring countries such as Thailand. The most pressing need is for prices to come down. However, ultimately most people realize that economic policies are unlikely to change unless the government changes.
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Erin: For Mr. Tha: What is the penalty for a Burmese citizen caught sending news reports abroad, for a foreign journalist?
Mr. Tha: There is a law called the State Secret Act. But the Burmese military does not always follow the letter of the law. Their penalties are more severe than those prescribed in the law. Some accredited journalists by the Burmese military include stringers for Reuters, AP, AFP, so they are not considered to be violating the law. But they still have to be very careful. Some of the facts reported by some journalists reporting inside Burma are changed by their editors outside of Burma.
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Christina: A final comment here. The continued concern and actions of the international community with regard to Burma are crucial to bringing about change in Burma and the people inside Burma are living in fear and they need the international community's support as they try to bring peace, justice and democracy to their country.
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Erin: That wraps today’s T2A webchat. Our thanks to Burma expert Christina Fink in Thailand and Kyaw zan Tha of VOA’s Burmese Service – and to you for joining us. We hope you’ll come back tomorrow at 18 hours universal time to meet Jenna Bush, daughter of President George W. Bush and Laura Bush. Jenna, Jenna is author of Ana’s Story: A Journey of Hope. Jenna met Ana during an internship for UNICEF in Latin America and the Caribbean. In her book, Jenna tells of Ana's struggle to break free from the cycle of abuse, silence, and illness. See you Thursday, October 4th at 18 hours universal time, here on voanews.com!
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