Erin: Welcome to T2A web chat for February 19th, the day after Pakistan’s delayed elections. We’re discussing the results and implications with VOA National Security Correspondent Gary Thomas and VOA Urdu Service Managing Editor Razi Rizvi. We’re talking about what the vote means for Pakistan’s transition to democracy, its relations with the United States and the stakes for anti-terrorism efforts. The elections were postponed after the December assassination of opposition Presidential Candidate and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Let’s get started on Pakistan politics with a question from one of our participants in India:
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K.Gopi, India (email): Can you explain how the new government to be formed in Pakistan will support U.S. government efforts to fight terrorism?
Razi: If you look at the parties that have emerged as winners they are the people's party number 1, number 2 is PML, 3rd is the erstwhile ruling party PMLQ another significant win is of the ANP multinational party from the northwest frontier province and that province is in fact in the frontline of the war on terrorism because it borders Afghanistan if you look at the policies of all these parties, the people's party always has been an active supporter of the war on terror, it has always condemned ongoing suicide bombings and other acts of violence in the country. We have to see the stance of the parties...the Muslim league Nawaz always expressed concern about ongoing terrorist activities the only difference is about the modus operandi of the way the government has tried to deal with this issue there is general agreement that war on terror is important not only from an international point of view but also for Pakistan itself and PMLQ's policy is known as a big Musharrafsupporter and his war on terror when we look at this scenario there is no philosophical disagreement so Islamabad’s association with Washington or Islamabad's being a main ally of Washington in the fight against the war on terror will continue but the approach may differ some parties say we need to look at political and economic implications, not only military implications of the war on terror
Gary: I don't think Pakistani voters went to the polling places with Musharaff's relationship with Washington at the top of their minds but it was interesting that in the northwest frontier province that the religious parties coalition, the MMA, almost wiped out, which had ruled the province since the 2002 elections, which most people think were flawed anyway what is interesting here is that in voting for the amp over the MMA, Pakistanis in one of the most traditional areas of the country were voting for moderate Islam as opposed to a more radical and politicized Islam they probably also were voting against the MMA because the MMA did not deliver it did not deliver to its base, that is it did not get Sharia law passed, and to the ordinary citizen it didn't do well in delivering services so the MMA just turned into another political party and did not deserve another chance.
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RAJAONARISON: It seems some people are concerned that Mr. Musharrafwill not cooperate with an opposition government. Are these concerns justified?
Gary: The short answer is there are no worries among Pakistanis on this Musharrafhas already said he would accept the results and the results are clear cut and hard to dispute and even if there were any repressive backlash, it would turn the dislike of Musharrafinto revulsion.
Razi: I totally agree with Gary on this PMLQ, seen as a great supporter of Musharrafalso has accepted the results and the head of this party has said he is ready to sit in opposition so the senior leaders of PMLQ are willing to work with whatever new government is formed.
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Imo Obong in Nigeria: Do you think President Musharrafwill freely let go of his position and if there is a transition to democracy in Pakistan, what are indicators for its survival?
Gary: I don't think Musharrafwould go quietly although there have been many calls for his resignation there is a survival strategy which entails him driving a wedge between the PPP and the PMLN there is lots of bad blood between those two parties dating back to the 90's and if Musharrafcan exploit that he might be able to hang on for Mush to be impeached would require a 2/3 majority which the opposition does not have at this point however, one way around that is for them to restore the judges that were fired including the chief justice, then bring a case to have Musharraf's re-election last year rendered invalid in which case they would not need to go the impeachment route so bottom line, there are any number of ways this could go and in the end Musharraf might just be so tired he might throw up his hands and walk away, but frankly I don't see that happening.
Razi: as for Musharraf's exit, I agree with Gary's analysis and I also see it in the backdrop of the statement by Nawaz Sharif that a restored judiciary should decide about the future of Musharraf, whether his election was valid or not again today I have seen a statement by the current chairman of the people's party that Musharraf should resign so there seems to be some kind of agreement on this between the 2 parties that they want to see Musharraf leaving his post as Gary pointed out there is no 2/3 majority evolving in parliament so impeachment doesn't seem likely on the second part of the question about indicators for survival of democracy in Pakistan, what we see is that a coalition government will be formed so there are 2 scenarios, one a coalition between PPP and Sharif's Muslim league and the 2nd being discussed is PPP forming a government with the erstwhile ruling party PMLQ and MQM and some other smaller groups so in the first scenario, as Gary pointed out, both parties have a history of animosity but the leaders of the 2 parties have been showing a lot of goodwill and understanding there may be bumps if a coalition between them is formed but I think that they may go along because on most of the issues, they have agreement between them on some major issues like restoration of the judiciary, they may make a compromise but in the 2nd scenario, I see there are apprehensions of the government falling apart because then they would be ignoring a major political force basically representing a majority of the country which is Punjab
Gary: One other very important factor here: the leader of the PPP is Asif Zardari, a very controversial figure inside and outside the party any deal the party makes, he will have to sell to the party faithful and he has neither Bhutto's charisma nor her grip on the levers of party power. So it would be much more difficult for Asif to line up support within the party than it would have been for Bhutto
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Dr. A K Mehta, India (email): Why is it so difficult for democratic institutions to grow roots in Pakistan?
Gary: very simple, the military Pakistan is democracy interrupted every time it was starting to develop democratic institutions the military stepped in and took power so it never had the time for democratic institutions such as real political parties, to take hold, unlike in India where it had that long period of time so that's the major difference the major reason democracy has never taken hold no elected Pakistani government has ever finished its term
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Subhash: Do you see this election as a key milestone for Pakistan for transition from military to civilian rule?
Gary: it's too early to tell yet milestones are best recognized from the distance of time so it's going to depend on what the military does, how these scenarios play out before we really know Pakistan has had elections before and in the end the system failed the Pakistani people elections alone do not make a democracy, people do
Razi: while I'm in agreement with Gary, at the same time I would like to take an optimistic view of the whole situation given the background of the whole movement that in my opinion also forced Musharraf to hold apparently a free and fair election and I know that this was also possible because of international pressure but the will of the people should also be taken into account and it was evident when a very popular movement was seen when Musharraf dismissed the chief justice of Pakistan so this time what I foresee is that military has also realized that it has to rebuild its tarnished image and the present chief of staff has already asked the military to stay away from politics which is very significant and he has also recalled about 150 or so military officials from their civilian posts, so this is a very significant thing that there is a realization on the part of the military leadership that things are changing that they cannot take things for granted at the same time, what I believe is that political leaders, political parties, they also have to show some maturity that is very important because in the past their performance has also been disturbing on that count they have to show tolerance and understanding of the issues in the context of situation on the ground and the geopolitical realities
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Erin: Are you surprised by the results?
Razi: No because the scenario that was building before the elections suggested in clear terms about the outcome of the polls and that became very evident particularly after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto because the frustration and anger of the people reached its height which also resulted in the sympathy vote for Bhutto's party as for the Nawaz league, it was already being predicted it would have a strong showing in Punjab because of the falling popularity of Musharraf so there were a number of factors which contributed to the present election results, namely the falling popularity of Musharraf, the deteriorating law and order situation, and rising prices of essential goods and increasing unemployment and above all the higher number of incidents of terrorism and suicide bombings that spilled into urban areas so the results are not surprising in the context of all this
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N.Sundararajan, India (email): Does the low voter turnout sufficiently represent the general population and is it enough for a democratic government to be formed?
Razi: in the given situation, if we look at the figures provided by the election commission of Pakistan, it shows that 45.67% of the population turned out to cast their vote which is more than the voters percentage of the elections in 2002 so I think in view of the existing situation and the fear of the people about possible terrorist activities and untoward incidents of violence, I believe the turnout is quite credible and impressive in this context I would also like to add that the participation by women voters was also very encouraging and was described as quite high in most parts of the country so this means that despite all apprehensions, people exercised their right to vote and came out in quite substantial numbers to elect their representatives i should point out that during the pre-election activities all over the country there was a series of violent incidents with many killed and wounded and that had created a sense of fear among the voters but then it seems the people ignored all those fears and went to the polls
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Erin: Now that the elections are over, is Mr. Musharraf likely to lift the restrictions on the media?
Razi: I think that he has to because all the political parties that have won most of the seats in parliament, it is one of their key demands and I'm pretty sure that Musharraf will have to meet their demands and lift whatever restrictions that have been enforced lately on the media, particularly the private television channels
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Erin: I need to make a final request to participants who joined our live web chat on February 13th. We need email and mailing addresses from Rana Hanan in UK, Ibrahima Diop and Abrar Malik in Ireland. We want to send you some fun T2A stuff so please send your information to us at chat@voanews.com Thanks. That wraps today’s T2A web chat about Pakistan’s elections, Cuba and Kosovo. Our thanks to VOA National Security Correspondent Gary Thomas, VOA Urdu Service Managing Editor Razi Rizvi and to you for joining us today. We hope you can come back tomorrow, Wednesday, February 20th at 1800 UTC. We’re going to Hollywood for a preview of film’s biggest award night. The 80th annual Academy Awards will be presented in Hollywood this Sunday, February 24th. Entertainment reporter Alan Silvman joins us to discuss one of the most-watched events around the world each year. The Academy Awards – commonly known as Oscars – are the American film industry’s highest honors. That’s tomorrow, Wednesday, February 20th at 1800 UTC right here on voanews.com See you then!
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