Erin: It's Election Night here in the United States where we're watching polls close and results start to come in. T2A has political experts and international students here in Washington joining the discussion and providing perspective as the country choose new leadership in an historic election that will end with either the first African-American President or with the first female Vice President. Our guests are Scot Faulkner, a former Reagan Administration official and author of 'The Naked Emperors: The Failure of the Republican Revolution' -- Solon Simmons, a political scientists from George Mason University near Washington -- Julie Germany directs the George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. GWU students will join us. They are Ricardo Amado from Venezuela and Yanate Banigo from Nigeria.
-------------------------------
Erin: We've had some interesting comments come to us via email so I'll post a couple before we get started.
-------------------------------
|
Thaw Reh: As an observer of the campaign, I feel Obama will able to do a better job. If I could vote, I would vote for Obama. I think the rest of the world would love to see Obama as president like I do.
-------------------------------
|
Bondy Carrenand: Hello would you tell me which candidate has more voters for now?
Erin: Thanks for joining T2A. Yes, you can get the latest statistics on results here: www.usavotes2008.com You'll find the latest official information when you click on the large U.S. map. And stay with T2A as our political expert guests provide perspective on the election and its implications. Solon Simmons of George Mason University is here in our News Centre and is walking over to our chat studio. Perhaps you have a question for Solon?
-------------------------------
|
Jan: Now perhaps you have a black president in America, but what about Native Americans?
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Solon before we get to the questions and comments already posted, give us a sense of the historic nature of this campaign and election, beyond what we already know -- that the United States will have its first African-American President or first female Vice President -- what have you observed about the electorate?
Solon: Although we do know that there are many firsts in this election, those that you mention cannot be discounted. I would suggest that if Barack Obama wins this election he will not only be the first African-American president, but he will, in fact, be the first mixed race president. This blending of the cultures of Africa and Europe has always been among the historic quests of the United States and has been among its most disappointing failures. The symbolic value of an Obama win would be more than dramatic around the world. In the case of a McCain victory, we will witness the political redemption of one of America's favorite heroes, but also the crushing disappointment of those who would finally resolve the American Dilemma on race. This disappointment would be felt as much abroad as here in a way that is rather unfair to John McCain, who recognizes himself that life is unfair.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Scot, let's get to the question about the political influence of various ethnic groups and the politicians who represent them. An earlier question asks about the possibility the United States might see a Native American President...talk about the impact of our rich cultural heritage on the political scene.
Scot: It has been said many times that America is a 'nation of immigrants'. Ethnic and immigrant groups have been the foundation of successful political operations for decades. Irish Americans dominated many major U.S. cities, like New York and Boston going back to the early 20th Century. Scandinavians and German immigrants promoted the progressive era in the Midwest up through the 1920s. Today immigrants are key constituencies throughout America. They are well organized and hold the balance of vote in key states and key parts of states. Notably the Cuban-American community in Miami hold the balance for Florida, just like recent Mexican and South American immigrants play major roles in the politics of the American Southwest, especially in California and New Mexico. Lebanese Americans are a major force in Michigan, having elected one of their own as Senator in the 1990s. Newer immigrants are having a huge impact, for example Governor Jindal,whose parents are from India, was elected in Louisiana in 2007.
-------------------------------
|
Bjorn Socree: What is the meaning of Obama?
Erin: Interesting question...I went to Wikipedia and here is what Wiki says...with this caveat about this source -- it is not necessary THE definitive authority -- but here is what Wiki says: 'Obama is a name from the Luo ethnic group of southwestern Kenya, where Barack Obama Sr. was born. It was originally the given name of Barack Obama's great-grandfather. It is based on the Luo (technically, Dholuo, the name of the language of the Luo) word bam, which means 'crooked, slightly bending' . The prefix O- means 'he', and many Luo male names begin with it. Since most traditional Luo names were given by the baby's mother referring to something about the child's birth, the best guess is that when Obama's great-grandfather was born one of his arms or legs looked slightly bent.'
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Right now Yanat Banigo is joining T2A via telephone. She is watching the election results with other students at the student union at George Washington University, not far from VOA.
-------------------------------
|
Ern: Yanate, thanks for joining us. Give us your impressions of this very long campaign and election. What does it mean to you as an international student here in the United States?
Yanate: It's very different from how elections are held at home. Campaigning here in America is a much bigger deal, with the focus on the primary elections. At home, people just wait to hear who won because the elections are always skewed. Sometimes we will already know who is winning or is going to win because it would be the person that is in good standing with the previous president. Here in the U.S., it's legitimate Democracy in action, with efforts to make sure everyone has an equal and fair chance to vote. It's nothing like that at home in Nigeria.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Based on what you just said and feel, are you interested in returning to Nigeria and becoming involved in politics there?
Yanate: Yes, definitely. I hope that when I get home there's a better infrastructure. I would be involved more in grassroots efforts to educate the public on Democracy. More Nigerians need to be aware how things need to be changed.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Scot, you're watching from a Republican perspective and you've been commenting about how early exit polls (surveys of voters as they leave the polling station) show a very tight race. Explain why you think the final result could be perhaps not quite what many observers see.
Scot: This election is the first time many voters are casting their votes early. In some states over a third of registered voters voted before election day. These people are not being surveyed. There are many overseas ballots, especially from active duty military, that may not be counted for ten days. Therefore, it is difficult to project an accurate outcome. That said, polls in 2000 and 2004 showed sizable leads for the Democratic candidate only to be washed away by the actual vote tabulation. The tighter margins and high undecided in many states may mean McCain ultimately will do better than projected. In many tight races voters who say they are undecided are really for the 'underdog' candidate, but do not want to tell pollsters because they want to look like they are with the 'winner'. In these situations, pollsters needs to build in assumptions on how to allocate undecided voters. That is why some many polls differ so widely.
-------------------------------
|
Hio Tiao Lim: Good evening America : Whoever wins the race, I hope that your country will not remove the (quote) IN GOD WE TRUST (unquote)banner on the US DOLLAR bill!
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Good to hear from you Hio Tiao Lim, joining T2A from the Philippines as I recall. And good morning to you.
-------------------------------
|
Hio Tiao: TO YANATE : Can you help me locate Mr. Mike Akins? He is a Nigerian formerly based in Atlanta Georgia, migrated here in the Philippines.
Erin: Hio Tiao, we'll have Yanate join us shortly to take your question. We hope she can help you find your friend.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Jan and Thaw Reh emailed us...we hope if you're online you can join T2A and tell us where you are located.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: VOA Washington Correspondent Kent Klein is closely watching the election and joins T2A with an update.
-------------------------------
|
Bondy Carrenand: Kent, what's the latest and are you seeing any surprises -- would you say it's still early?
Kent: It is still early, and there don't seem to be any surprises so far. However, the polls have closed in several of the 'swing states,' where the election could be decided, and the results should be in fairly soon. Voters who were waiting in line at poll closing time were being allowed to cast their ballots, and with turnout so high this year, it may take a little longer than usual to count the ballots.
-------------------------------
|
Andrew: John MacCain = America
-------------------------------
|
Nintendo_Freak: So here's an important question about (quote) calling a state (unquote). What does it mean for a media outlet gathering exit poll data to call a state -- does that have any bearing on the results -- or does it just give an indication of how things could ultimately end with official results?
Solon: Calling a state is a network decision based on both exit poll results and on key returns from parts of the state that have provided returns. The networks have a heavy responsibility in making these decisions in that they help to shape expectations of those voters who have not yet made a decision, and so they now refuse to call states prior to the close of the polls in a state. There is an argument to the effect that calls should be made after all polls have closed nationwide to prevent contamination, but the folkways are such that we balance the demand for knowledge with that of fairness. There is nothing official in such calls and networks can easily end the night with egg on their face. In fact the votes cast in an election select a slate of electors for each state, who are designed such that they have independence from the voters. These final decisions are made on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of the month in December. Because of this, the most conservative calls would not be made until these votes are cast. This is clearly excessive and so we follow the conventions and call states as they come.
-------------------------------
|
Laurence Baer: Erin, Are you and Scot on a live broadcast or only this chat. I'm trying to find the live coverage online. Is there a url that I can go to?
Erin: Hi Laurence. Scot has joined VOA's LIVE radio broadcast and he's with T2A right now. VOA's LIVE television broadcast starts in one and half hours from now, at 0300 UTC, which is the same as 10 PM Washington time. You'll be able to go to www.usavotes2008.com at that time. VOA television election reporter Carolyn Presutti will provide LIVE drop in interviews during the television-radio simulcast and Scot likely is to be a part of those drop-ins. Thanks for joining T2A. We look forward to some more questions and or comments from you Laurence.
-------------------------------
|
Andrew: Obama is socialist and will make America live like Europe - old stinking Europe. Americans don't let it happen!!! Remain Americans, powerful, clever, leading
-------------------------------
|
Solon: Socialism has never had a happy home in the United States and was staved off in the great era of socialism in the 1930s by what we call liberalism (a term that we use in ways different from the rest of the world). There have been accusations that Obama is a strong liberal, but he embrace of socialist policies (state ownership of the means of production) is quite weak. The main attack behind the socialist charge comes from his desire to return the marginal tax rate at the top bracket to the levels of the Clinton era. This is not really socialism, but rather limited support for progressive taxation. In this vein, keep in mind that the average marginal rate for taxation on the top bracket in the U.S. is around 60%. These rates would seem confiscatory by today's standards. In sum, Obama may be a liberal, but he is no socialist.
-------------------------------
|
Scot: The 'Obama is a socialist' attack was used in the final days of the McCain campaign. This has some validity as the National Journal (an objective magazine covering government issues) declared Obama the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate. This placed him more liberal than Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who was elected as a socialist. However, it is difficult for any President, no matter how ideological, to take America onto a radical course. The founding fathers made sure divided government (states versus federal level; and legislative, judicial, executive branches at the national level) would moderate any dramatic shift from either party.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: We're back with Yanata who wants Hio Tiao Lim in Philippines to know she does not think she can help find his friend who moved from Atlanta, Georgia to the Philippines...Sorry we can't help you but hope you can find him.
-------------------------------
|
Blondy Carrenand: Yanata, we're further into the evening and more polls are closing with more preliminary results becoming available...what's the mood like there at George Washington University's student union? What are you and your friends talking about?
Yanate: Everybody's very excited. One of my friends is closely watching North Carolina. I'm with a pro Obama group so we're pretty optimistic right now. I know it's important to wait until it's all over and if McCain wins, it's important for America to come together.
-------------------------------
|
Bob the builder: Why is the news reporting states won by candidates when voting isnt even finished?
Erin: We hope you can check out an earlier section of the chat where we talked about media outlets (quote) calling states (unquote) and why that action is not an official result. Take a look and if that does not adequately address your question, come back to us.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Right now I just reached Ricardo Amado on the phone. He's also at George Washington University, a graduate student from Venezuela.
-------------------------------
|
Andrew: Ricardo, where are you watching the results come in and how do you feel about what you're seeing -- who do you want to win even though you cannot vote here.
Ricardo: I'm at the DuPont Circle area of Washington, at a party with other political science students. It's been very exciting to watch this process. I have to say that I want Obama to win. I think he can be a better leader and inspire Americans and deal effectively with some of the country's problems.
-------------------------------
|
Blondy Carrenand: Let me ask you about how you would see U.S. - Venezuelan relations if Senator Obama were to win -- but also if Senator McCain were to win?
Ricardo: I'm not a complete fan of the President of Venezuela. I see Obama leading better U.S. relations with Latin America, better than what we have had the past eight years. I'm concerned if McCain were to win. I don't like his approach to immigration. Back to Obama, I hope he takes a more moderate approach on Free Trade.
-------------------------------
|
Mo: Who is the winner?
Erin: Hi Mo, as I recall, you're joining us from Baghdad. Good to have you joining T2A. Right now we're watching projections only so there is nothing official to report. Stay tuned to voanews.com and to usavotes2008.com to get the latest. usavotes2008.com has a really cool map that shows how things are looking after exit poll results come in.
-------------------------------
|
Ardeshir: What is the latest result?
Erin: Hello Ardeshir, wish we had something official for you right now but we do not yet. Go to www.usavotes2008.com to get the latest information on this historic election. Thanks for joining T2A. We have political expert guests with us who can take your questions. Or comment and tell us what you're thinking.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: I'm calling our Congressional Correspondent Dan Robinson on Capitol Hill to get a sense of how that election is going.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Earlier, Solon was telling me about the voting experiences he and his wife had in Arlington, Virginia, near Washington. Solon said his Wife was turned away at the polling station because records did not show she was registered to vote. Solon said his wife had worked very hard in the weeks leading up to the election to ensure she would be able to cast a ballot. She registered her experience with a twitter group called Vote Watch and she hopes her vote will be counted. VOA is twittering at twitter.com and the usernam is usavotes2008
-------------------------------
|
Jan Erik Olsson: Hello, I live in Stockholm, Sweden. Perhaps you have a black president now, but what about all the Indians that you took the country from! Regards Jan Erik Olsson
Erin: Jan, thank you for letting us know where you are and we hope you can check out our earlier discussion about your question. If it does not satisfy you, please come back.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Jan, here is an answer to your question from one of our political expert guests, Scot Faulkner. (quote) It has been said many times that America is a 'nation of immigrants'. Ethnic and immigrant groups have been the foundation of successful political operations for decades. Irish Americans dominated many major U.S. cities, like New York and Boston going back to the early 20th Century. Scandinavians and German immigrants promoted the progressive era in the Midwest up through the 1920s. Today immigrants are key constituencies throughout America. They are well organized and hold the balance of vote in key states and key parts of states. Notably the Cuban-American community in Miami hold the balance for Florida, just like recent Mexican and South American immigrants play major roles in the politics of the American Southwest, especially in California and New Mexico. Lebanese Americans are a major force in Michigan, having elected one of their own as Senator in the 1990s. Newer immigrants are having a huge impact, for example Governor Jindal,whose parents are from India, was elected in Louisiana in 2007. (unquote) Hope this helps, Jan.
-------------------------------
|
Mother: Obama is not a socialist, he’s a communist. He wants a new bill of rights: the right to a job (even if you never show up to do it, your employer couldn’t fire you), the right to education (even if you never make the grade), & the right to own your own home (even if you have no job). These things would be provided for you by the government. I personally don’t want to have a government job, education or live in government housing. My family left all of that behind to enjoy the opportunities of a free country. We can’t give up our freedoms because there is no place else to go.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Right now we're joined by Julie Germany, who studies the internet and politics. Earlier we were talking about the votewatch twitter group. Julie was saying how impressed she is that VOA is twittering the election.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Julie, talk about the impact of the internet on this political season and the election -- and visa versa.
Julie: The Internet has played a major role in this election. Both the Obama and McCain campaigns have used the Internet as a 'central nervous system' or 'backbone' to make every campaign activity (fundraising, persuasion, rapid response, organization, and mobilization) run more efficiently and effectively. They are using web video, social networking tools, search engine marketing, online advertising, blogs, and so many more tools to engage and organize voters.
-------------------------------
|
Ali: This is a question for VOA Congressional Correspondent Dan Robinson, who's watching the Senate and House elections and reporting on them. Dan, talk about the significance of the Congressional election and the pressure on the next Congress to meet the demands of its constituents.
Dan: While most of the attention is on the presidential result, the balance of power that will exist in Congress is probably just as important from the standpoint of what the new president will be able to accomplish over the short and long run. Since 2006, when Democrats took control of Congress, Democrats have been unable to accomplish all that they intended because of a required 60 vote majority in the 100 member Senate, without which the opposition can block legislation. Notably, Democrats were unable to take any action since 2006 on setting a specific timetable to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, although House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders faced sharp pressure from the left of their party to do so. And President Bush wielded the veto pen, another block to Democratic intentions stated after the 2006 election. Although Democrats are not likely to achieve that 60 vote point in this election, they could get significantly closer. In the House, meanwhile, Democrats are given an excellent chance of picking up 20 to 25 seats, possibly more, greatly expanding their current majority and weakening Republicans even further who will be pushed down to a level of 175 or lower -- they are currently at 199. With Democratic leaders vowing to take strong action in the new 111th Congress to deal with the financial crisis, immigration, and other issues, the balance of power in the House and Senate will be a crucial factor.
-------------------------------
|
Bondy Carrenand: Want to get back to the votewatch twitter group on election night here in the United States, with Julie Germany. Julie, why is this a big deal in your view?
Julie: Programs like votewatch, which uses the #votewatch 'hashtag' on Twitter, is another way to get people to interact while the wait in line to vote and report back on what is going on -- specifically, looking for voter suppression and voter fraud. People report in real time, connecting their experiences to the experiences of millions of others, constructing a collective narrative and helping keep elections clean.
-------------------------------
|
Hannah: IF Obama wins the election, what will he do for Kenya?
Erin: Hannah, thanks for joining T2A and where are you located? I just spoke with one of our Correspondents who just returned to Washington from Africa. He says the press reports from Africa that he has been reading and the residents he has been talking with seem to indicate there is more of a feeling of pride that an African-American could be President, but the VOA Correspondent has not detected any specific expectations that the situation in Africa would be directly impacted by an Obama victory. Thanks to Nico!
-------------------------------
|
Erin: Want to get back to Julie Germany and what you were saying earlier about a cool blogspot, Blogspot538 -- and about twittering that you're watching -- really putting themselves out front...
Julie: Tonight I've personally received election news faster online than by watching television. A polling blog called FiveThirtyEight called the election for Obama at 8:47 pm this evening. I've monitored twitter as well, and received breaking updates on which states Obama and McCain win minutes before seeing it on any of the mainstream media sites or on television. I follow a lot of reporters on Twitter, and many of them of posting the results their first before the results make it on the websites of their media organizations.
-------------------------------
|
Erin: VOA Senate Correspondent Deborah Tate joins us to discuss the implications of a Democratic majority in the Senate. Debby, what are expectations?
Debby: It's a big night for Democrats in Congress. While they probably won't achieve a 60-seat majority in the Senate, which would allow them to overcome Republican efforts to block legislation, they have made significant gains. Among their victories is a win in North Carolina. Democrat Kay Hagan won the seat held by incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole, a key name in the Republican party. Dole is also a former Cabinet Secretary and wife of former Senate Majority Leader and presidential candidate Bob Dole. Democrats also expanded their majority in the House. In the likely event that Senator Barack Obama is elected president, an expanded Democratic majority could swiftly implement his ambitious agenda, including improving the economy, reforming health care and bringing home U.S. combat troops from Iraq. The presidential race has been particularly exciting for me to watch over the past year or so because so many of the candidates have come from the Senate, which is the beat I cover on a daily basis. I have been fortunate to have had a unique perspective on these candidates -- Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama and his running mate Joe Biden, and former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton,, as I have watched them on the Senate floor and interacting with each other in the U.S. Capitol before they became presidential candidates.
-------------------------------
|
Jan Erik Olsson: Hello Again, You talk about Irish and Cuban people. But I mean really Native Americans like Sioux, Commanche, Apache, Cheyenne, Crow and Cherokee and so on. Before the Europeans came to America.
Erin: Hi again Jan, my political expert friends are telling me many Native Americans are focused on their tribal efforts on casino businesses and alternative energy as well as tourism. We'll have to wait to see what the future brings for this important ethnic community. I encourage you to go online to find more specific information about Native American political initiatives.
-------------------------------
|
Mahta: Scot Faulkner, we're watching Senator McCain's concession speech in Phoenix, Arizona...give us your thoughts on what went wrong for the McCain campaign and what went right for the Obama campaign and talk about the job facing Barack Obama when he takes office January 20, 2009...
Scot: As a lifelong Republican I am disappointed at the outcome, but not surprised. This was an impossible year for Republicans. Bush and Republican incumbents have spent eight years disappointing their core supporters by growing government, eroding individual freedoms, promoting foreign adventurism, tolerating corruption, and incompetently running the federal government. The Republican Party has become a sad vivisected remnant of the great movement built by Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater. In light of the current circumstance, it is amazing that McCain-Palin did as well as they did. It is now up to the 'Grand Old Party' to reject its current leaders and policies and return to the libertarian, good government, enlightened foreign policy that led the GOP to winning 60 percent of its elections since its founding in 1854, and made it the most successful political party in American history. The set backs of 2006 and 2008 should serve as a 'wake-up call' for Republicans to return to their roots, promote new leaders, and repositioning their movement for the rapidly changing circumstances of the 21st Century. I wish President-elect Obama well, as he will soon be my President. I hope he governs wisely and for the good of all Americans. I also hope my party, the Republicans, rebuild and are able to offer a viable, and ultimately winnable, alternative to the Democratic Party. We came back from the wilderness in the 1952, 1968, 1980, and 2000. We will again.
-------------------------------
|
Julie: This has been a historic election for the Internet in American politics. Both campaign used the Internet very well to reach and market themselves to voters, but the Obama campaign far exceeded the McCain campaign in using the Internet to mobilize and organize voters. Volunteers were already using the Internet to organize themselves weeks and months before the Obama campaign sent paid campaign staffers into their areas during the primaries. Everything the Obama campaign did online and offline fed into its organization efforts. Over the next few years, the challenge for the Obama administration and the House and Senate changes. Now, elected officials must master using the Internet not just to talk to voters but also to listen to voters. As more Americans continue to use the Internet to communicate with each other, we will begin to demand listening, interaction, and interactivity from our elected officials. The same tools that helped the Obama campaign organize its get-out-the-vote effort can help elected officials listen better. Now, its up to them to actually do it.
-------------------------------
|
Diana Kasudi: Do you think americans are ready for a black president?
Scot: The most important aspect of the 2008 election is how little race was a factor. Obama was considered on his views and background, not his race. That was a huge step forward for America. Obama will be rated as a President, not because of his race, but by whether he successfully addresses the many issues facing America.
-------------------------------
|
Diana Kasudi: What is the difference between a democrat and a republican?
Scot: American political parties are coalitions of diverse interests. There are 'conservative' Democrats and 'liberal' Republicans. The 'center of gravity' of each party is where the basic differences can be defined. A 'Republican' supports the private sector taking the lead in most issues, and limited government involvement being used only as a last resort. When government needs to play a role, a Republican wants that role clearly defined, for a limited duration, and the activity governed as close to the local level as possible. In foreign policy, a Republican wants a strong defense, but this means America being able to respond to threats, not roaming the world looking for threats. At home, Republicans support protecting the victims of crime, instead of defending the rights of criminals. Republicans are more concerned about creating economic freedom and opportunity than distributing the results of that freedom. Democrats see government as the primary mechanism for resolving issues, righting wrongs, and reversing perceived injustice. Democrats want national solutions, not local solutions. Democrats think in broad frameworks and many times do not 'sweat the details'. Internationally Democrats are more idealistic. They can be naive, and sometime are slow to see and to respond to external threats. Democrats are more likely to work through international entities, even when those entities are also slow to recognize and respond to issues. Ironically, Democrats are opponents of 'free trade'. This is because they have less faith in free markets, and also are willing to screen American workers from the global economy.
-------------------------------
|
Jocelyn Omit: Who do you think will be a good president Obama or McCain?
Erin: We're about to watch President-elect Obama take office January 20, 2009.
-------------------------------
|
Diana Kasudi: According to your view, do you think Obama will make a difference?
Erin: The majority of American voters who chose President-elect Obama answered that question. They seem to think so.
-------------------------------
|
Yama: hello this is yama from afghanistan i am very glad to Mr obama win the election he is a very good guy according to saying of Mr Obama he brings some changes in afghanistan situation and I hope he help us more and more. thanks
-------------------------------
|
Erin: It's hard to suspend this conversation which has been rich with commentary and terrific questions from just about every continent. Historic. Diana, we hope you and others will join T2A in just a few hours as we break down the election and look to the challenges that lie ahead for the Obama Administration and the new Congress. Join us LIVE at 1800 utc on Wednesday, November 5th right here on voanews.com See you then! |
