Some Sudanese are reportedly expressing optimism after the
new chief mediator visited the country yesterday with a new mission to finding
a solution to the Darfur crisis. Djibril Bassole, who is Burkina Faso’s foreign
minister, is expected to begin what some are describing as a Herculean task of
reigniting the stalled peace talks and ensuring a cessation of hostilities
between the rebels and Khartoum. Bassole reportedly said his mission and
priorities would be defined by Sudanese, adding that there was need to
encourage dialogue that would lead to finding a comprehensive political
solution to the Darfur crisis. But some political analysts say Bassole’s lack
of knowledge of any Sudanese language or of the area would be challenging.
Rashid
Abdi is political analyst with the International Crisis Group in Kenya. He
tells reporter Peter Clottey from the capital Nairobi that the standoff between
Khartoum and the International Criminal Court would play a significant part in
the negotiations.
“The
first thing I would say about the visit is it comes at a very interesting time,
when there is a standoff between the ICC and the Sudanese government over the
plan by the ICC to indict General Bashir for war crimes in Darfur. Now we have
been seeing the Sudanese very angry beginning a diplomatic offensive in the
Arab-League, at the African Union (AU), and I think the fact that there is now
a new envoy for the Darfur peace process who probably has a linguist problem,
he doesn’t t know the country very well. I think it is highly optimistic to
argue that much would come out with this new initiative,” Abdi pointed out.He
said the new dynamics of the talks would be challenging.
“The
process is now changed on a new factor, which has actually become I think the
biggest complicating factor in the whole Darfur issue, which is the current
indictment, which hangs over general Bashir. I think the Sudanese would be
inclined to not actually make any headway or any progress in the peace process
in Darfur. They would be solely paying for more time in order to either have
the indictment lifted or something,” he said.Abdi
said it would be intricate to predict the success of the new mediator.
“It
is really difficult to see how Mr. Bassole’s mission can really succeed or even
make progress in the light of the current standoff between the international
community and the Sudanese government,” Abdi noted.He
said Khartoum does not want to be seen as antagonistic towards the
international community.
“The
Sudanese basically wouldn’t want to antagonize the international community.
They are playing with caution. If you hear the language of their diplomats in
the AU and the Arab-League, the message is that we are still engaged in the
process of finding a political settlement in Darfur, despite our unhappiness
with the possibility of President Bashir being indicted. Yet in the country
itself, throughout the media and on the street level, you would find a great
level of anti-UN feelings and generally an Anti-Western atmosphere being
whipped up,” he said.Abdi
said there seems to be lack of cohesion with Khartoum’s diplomacy and the
internal political dynamics.
“There
is disconnect between the discourse of diplomacy and the internal discourse.
So, I think unless that problem of the ICC indictment is somehow resolved
amicably for both sides, things would be challenging,” Abdi noted. He
said the ICC wouldn’t want allegations of crimes against humanity to go
unpunished.
“I
can see the dilemma. There was an issue of impunity of Darfur. And justice has
to at least be seen to be done in case of Darfur. But at the same time that has
to be tempered by the reality that Khartoum has to be brought on board for the
peace process in Darfur to work. And the ICC policy looks like it is on a
collision course, and there is a possibility that it can unravel the whole
process,” he pointed out.
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