Text Only
Search

 
Experts Predict Lengthy Battles in US Presidential Nominating Contests


11 January 2008
Malone report - Download (916k) - Download (MP3) audio clip
Malone report - Download (916k) - Listen (MP3) audio clip

The unpredictable nature of this year's U.S. presidential election campaign suggests it will be some time before the nomination battles in both parties are resolved.  VOA national correspondent Jim Malone has a preview of the next important contests for both parties from Washington.

Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton takes the stage in Manchester, New Hampshire, 8 Jan. 2008
Supporters cheer as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton takes the stage in Manchester, New Hampshire, 8 Jan. 2008
The Democratic race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama now moves West and South.

Nevada will host party caucuses on January 19 and South Carolina holds a primary on January 26.

After that comes so-called Super Tuesday on February 5, when more than 20 states hold primaries or caucuses.

Obama's early victory in the Iowa caucuses and Clinton's stunning comeback win in the New Hampshire primary suggest an unpredictable battle ahead for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

"Well, I think it is going to be a much longer race than anybody anticipated," said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

Baker adds a Clinton defeat in New Hampshire would have been devastating for her campaign.

Sen. Barack Obama (l) waves to the crowd after being endorsed by former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (r) in Charleston, South Carolina, 10 Jan 2008
Sen. Barack Obama (l) waves to the crowd after being endorsed by former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (r) in Charleston, South Carolina, 10 Jan 2008
Baker adds that Clinton's last-minute reversal of what had been a big Obama lead in the polls had a lot to do with women voters rallying around her in the final hours of the campaign.

"I think the real miscalculation on the part of the pollsters in New Hampshire was not the support for Obama, but the support for Clinton, and particularly the support for Senator Clinton among women," he added.

If anything, the battle for the Republican Party's presidential nomination appears even more wide open.

Stuart Rothenberg publishes a political newsletter in Washington called the Rothenberg Political Report.

Republican presidential hopefuls, from left,Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Ron Paul pose prior to a Republican presidential debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C., 10 Jan 2008
From left, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Ron Paul pose prior to Republican presidential debate in South Carolina, 10 Jan 2008
"Like the Democratic race, the Republican contest is a toss-up," he explained.  "The big difference is the Republican field is much larger, which means it can fracture more ways than the Democratic contest."

Experts say an argument can be made for any one of five Republican contenders to eventually win the party's presidential nomination.  They include Senator John McCain, who won the New Hampshire primary, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who placed first in the Iowa caucuses.

Mitt Romney campaigns at the Timberland Corporate headquarters in Stratham, New Hampshire,07 Jan 2008
Mitt Romney campaigns at the Timberland Corporate headquarters in Stratham, New Hampshire,07 Jan 2008
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a huge stake in Tuesday's primary in Michigan while former Senator Fred Thompson is banking on a good showing in the South Carolina Republican primary on January 19.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is focused on winning the January 29 primary in Florida and using that as a springboard to gain momentum.

As in the Democratic race, the Super Tuesday contests involving more than 20 states on February 5 will be crucial.

But some experts speculate that for the first time in decades, the Republican nomination battle might not be resolved until the national nominating convention in early September in Minneapolis.

"All the way to the convention?  It is hard to imagine because somewhere along the line, even in the Republican race, someone is likely to build up some momentum,"  Stuart Rothenberg noted.  "But is it possible?  Yes, I think people are now saying it is at least theoretically possible where six months ago they were dismissing it out of hand."

Much of the conventional political wisdom last year said the earlier and more compressed primary schedule would make it likely that apparent nominees would emerge for both parties fairly early in the process.

Ross Baker says a lot of analysts are revising their election timetables this year.

"I think that informed opinion was generally arguing for a quick knock-out," he said.  "That is not going to happen and my guess is that we are not really going to have a clear picture until after the 5th of February when 22 states vote."

The primary and caucus votes continue until early June.  The Democrats hold their national nominating convention in late August in Denver.

The U.S. presidential election will be held November 4.

emailme.gif E-mail This Article
printerfriendly.gif Print Version

  Related Stories
Kerry Endorses Obama, Richardson Drops Out of US Presidential Race
Clinton, McCain Bounce Back After New Hampshire Victories
New Hampshire Results Open Up Presidential Race in Both Parties
 
  Top Story
North Korea Demands Apology After Naval Clash with South

  More Stories
Bomb Rocks Northwestern Pakistan
Tropical Storm Ida Hits US Gulf Coast
Obama to Visit Families of Fort Hood Shooting Victims
Obama Wants to Visit Hiroshima, Nagasaki in Future
Clinton Urges 'Compassion' for Americans Detained in Iran  Audio Clip Available
Berlin Wall Celebration Marked by Joy and Caution  Audio Clip Available
Obama Makes First China Tour as Economic Interdependence Grows  Video clip available
APEC Economies Report Improved Trade Finance, Discuss Free Trade  Audio Clip Available
Scientists Report Abnormal Sea Level Rises Off Western Australia  Audio Clip Available