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Commercial Real Estate Could Be Next Economic Threat

03 September 2009

This is the VOA Special English Economics Report.

The American housing collapse was a major cause of the recession. The housing market is showing new life after three years of falling prices and too much supply. But now there are worries that banks could face big losses next on business properties.

Better times: Workers build a Manhattan high-rise in 2006. Now, lending has tightened in the commercial real estate market. 
Better times: Workers build a Manhattan high-rise in 2006. Now, lending has tightened.
For example, one effect of a weak economy is less demand for office space. As a result, property owners earn less and charge less in rent. This puts pressure especially on owners who borrowed a lot money.

Easy credit helped fuel an explosion of development.  The market hit a high point in two thousand seven.

Now, late payments are growing. Almost three percent of commercial mortgages were reported at least ninety days late between April and June. That was double a year earlier.

One major lender lost more than a billion and a half dollars in the second quarter. Capmark Financial Group said it might seek bankruptcy protection from its creditors. Medium and small banks also face a growing risk.

Banks hold one and a half of the three and a half trillion dollars in debt that supports the commercial real estate market. Housing debt is much higher. Still, around two trillion dollars in commercial mortgages are expected to come due for payment within the next five years.

Commercial properties face two serious problems. One is falling prices -- down by one-fourth since two thousand seven. The other is refinancing.

Most commercial real estate loans have terms of ten years or less. They often end with a large payment, a balloon payment, which owners usually refinance. But lower property values and tighter lending requirements mean a harder time getting new loans.

One way to make capital available for new loans is to sell mortgage-backed securities. But since last year there has been little activity in the seven hundred fifty billion dollar market for commercial mortgage securities.  The Federal Reserve recently extended into next year a loan program designed to get investors to buy more securities like these.

The United States is not alone. Commercial rents in Moscow, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mumbai have fallen thirty percent or more.

American housing sales, though, have improved in recent months, helped by lower prices and a tax credit for first-time buyers. The S&P/Case-Shiller national index of home prices rose in April, May and June. That was the first three-month increase in three years.

And that's the VOA Special English Economics Report, written by Mario Ritter. I'm Steve Ember.



Comments:

1.

I really agree with what is said in the news All nations should be careful of this and avoid worse shrinking
Submitted by: ROGER (China)
09-24-2009 - 09:07:27

2. recession

recession is a cycle that we can't avoid.
Submitted by: tuan (Vietnam)
09-15-2009 - 09:04:01

3. Bubbly mood never go out

Rich people, especially bankers, have too much money and they are using it for real estate. In Japan almost 20 years ago, excessively hot real estate investment triggared by too much money supply resulted in collapse of bubble and left enormous debt. History repeats itsself.
Submitted by: Matsuda Shuichiro (Japan)
09-13-2009 - 03:05:30

4. is it good?

I'll quote one sentence from the article. They often end with a large payment, a balloon payment, which owners usually refinance. Is it all right? I mean that the current economic system is unhealthy.
Submitted by: code (Japan)
09-07-2009 - 12:26:10

5. Serious problem

Maybe there would be the second recession,if the bank and government did not find the way for the substantive debt of housing.
Submitted by: Clark Shang (China)
09-04-2009 - 10:36:58

6. How long will the recession last?

Before I arrived in Philadelphia I had been a staff of AIA which mother's company is AIG. When I quitted my job, the HR probably felt a little ease because they would lay off about 10 percent of staffs, but the company would pay a lot of money to whom did not quit by self. I think the Ametican situation is better than Chinese when I decide to go to America because my wife study in the University of Pennsylvania. But it is a wrong idea. Many graduate students are worried about that they could not find a job including my wife. So they decide to delay to graduate or apply for PHD or come back their countries and so on. We do not know how long the recession will last, but I think that most of people hope that the economy could recover as soon as possible. But it is seem to be a far-out idea.
Submitted by: Jingxian (China)
09-04-2009 - 04:02:06

7. Civil Engineering

Tanks.
Submitted by: Soroosh Ahmadi (Iran)
09-04-2009 - 03:43:39

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