Transcript

Host: This is “On The Line,” and I'm Eric Felten.

Changes to Venezuela's constitution will be put to a national popular referendum toward the end of this year. Voters will be asked to ratify a slate of amendments recently approved by Venezuela's National Assembly. The changes were proposed by President Hugo Chávez.

Along with articles that would extend social welfare benefits are changes that would extend the president's term in office and allow him to run for re-election. Mr. Chávez already controls the National Assembly through his Socialist Party as well as Venezuela's Supreme Court. And he has taken steps to undermine Venezuela's independent media and legitimate political opposition. By giving him the power to name vice presidents in charge of the country's provinces, the constitutional changes would also allow him to extend his control over local governments in Venezuela.

Opposition leader Manuel Rosales called the amendments “an attempted coup,” driven by what he said was Mr. Chávez's “narcissistic illness, his personal ambition.”

How is the consolidation of Hugo Chávez's rule affecting Venezuela and the rest of Latin America? What of his efforts to reach out to dictatorships in Iran and elsewhere? And how is the U.S. responding to these developments? I'll ask my guests: Eduardo Bertoni, Executive Director of the Due Process of Law Foundation and a former Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression at the Organization of American States; Daniel Erikson, Senior Associate for U-S Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue; and Ted Brennan, a former staff member on the Congressional Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere. Welcome and thanks for joining us today.

Let's start, Eduardo Bertoni, by talking about what's in this package of constitutional amendments in Venezuela.

Bertoni: There are many things. President Chávez says that he only intends to reform just ten percent of the constitution, but I believe that it’s not in terms of the percentage – It’s in terms of the content of the changes.

Host: By saying “ten percent” he means thirty-three articles out of three hundred articles in the constitution.

Bertoni: Exactly. And he said, “Don't worry. It's a very easy reform, so you are not going to work a lot.” He said that to the Assembly. But the problem -- You said something at the beginning about, “What are the important things that President Chávez is going to change?” But I would also highlight the process that he put in practice through this reform. This reform came up after many months of secret discussion by a panel of people appointed by President Chávez, who, including -- signed an agreement, some kind of confidential agreement. So they couldn’t speak about the changes in the constitution after they finished their job. So we are talking about a constitution of a country. We are talking about the main legal instrument that we have in any country, and the process to develop the changes was a secret process. So this is something that we have to pay attention [to]. And of course, the problem is what they did after the process.

Host: Daniel Erikson, what do you make of the proposed changes to the Venezuelan Constitution?

Erikson: I think there’s really one component that really grabs everyone’s attention, which is indefinite re-election of President Hugo Chávez. He's already due to be there until January 2013, if he runs out his current term. And the fact is that, if these changes go through, he could be there for quite a while. Now, he’s not the only president in Latin America that’s sought to change a constitution to get himself re-elected. It’s actually happened in a number of different cases. Chávez stands out in two ways, in addition to the process points that were mentioned. One is, is he wants a second bite at the apple. He already changed the constitution once in 2000, so if he thought it was that important, he should have tried to push through those changes then. And then the second is, he’s looking at indefinite re-election. And most of the constitutional changes we’ve seen in Latin America recently, whether it’s Colombia, Dominican Republic -- there are other cases -- have really been changing it from a one-term presidency to allowing someone to run for a second term. And so I think that is really -- There are other aspects in the constitutional changes having to do with greater state control over the economy and other components, but I think the fact that Chávez could be there for quite some time is what's causing a lot of concern.

Host: Ted Brennan, in a speech talking about these changes and talking about people being worried about this change to the limits on the presidential term, Hugo Chávez defended it by saying, “The Venezuelan people should be given the right to keep a president in power as long as they like, whether it be for five years, twelve years, or forty years.” Is he planning on forty years in office?

Brennan: Yes, actually, last time I was in Venezuela, you saw a lot of graffiti on the walls and the side of the highway. And some of them would say, “Hugo Chávez until 2031.” So, and I've heard him say that on a few occasions, in privacy, that he wanted to be president basically for life. I think the other thing that we need to worry about is not necessarily just the re-election, the indefinite re-election possibilities. And in the course of U-S history, that has been done before, as well, until, obviously the death of President Roosevelt. But in the context of Latin [American] history, that is the making of a dictator. Because then he’s controlling the National Assembly, he’s controlling the Supreme Court, and he’s controlling the presidency. And if you allow him to do that indefinitely without any kind of checks on that power, then you’re going to see some real changes go on in Venezuela. And the other thing, of course, is his centralization of power into the body of the national government. We talked about the vice presidents becoming leaders of federal districts. And that’s for him to overcome any opposition governors that may be elected or are sitting in power now, which would enable him to control basically the whole country from Miraflores [the palace] and I think that’s a real problem.

Host: Eduardo Bertoni, people in Venezuela who are supporters of Hugo Chávez will say, “These constitutional changes – they’re going to go to a vote of the people, and so this is just democracy in action.” How does that work in a context of media having been limited so dramatically in Venezuela over the last year? Will there be an opportunity for people who oppose these changes to have their voices heard in the lead-up to this vote?

Bertoni: I really don't -- I'm not sure about that. But let me go back for a minute to that kind of argument, that re-election is something positive or something good, because it is in the hands of the people. Just think about that argument. I don't buy that argument, but think about that argument. Why the change that Chávez is proposing -- it doesn't include the same two governors? I mean, it is an intrinsic -- It is a very big contradiction there. If you really believe that the power is in the hands of the people and the people should have the possibility to re-elect the people who are governing them forever, why don’t we do that for the governors in Venezuela?

Host: In other words, at the regional, the local level in Venezuela?

Bertoni: Exactly. So this is a benefit, as far as I understand the changes in the constitution -- this is a benefit just for President Chávez. And going to your point, in a society that is day by day afraid to raise their voice against the government, this kind of referendum could be some sort of fair threat, some kind of shame. I mean it is not going to be a real referendum. In the past, there were a list of people who voted against Chávez, and I personally know about many people that lost their jobs because they voted against the past referendum or Chávez last election. So to put these changes in the context and say, “Okay, but the people are going to decide,” in a country that has high control by many things coming from the government, it would be very, very, very risky.

Host: Ted Brennan.

Brennan: In the passage of time, we saw in Chávez's first elections -- We saw the new constitution right off the bat. And actually, it was a pretty good one. I mean, I got to read it, and I understood it. And as time went by, he took that constitution and he started kind of throwing pieces of it away so he could do whatever it was he needed to do or felt that he needed to do. And as time goes by, we're seeing an acceleration of these changes for the socialism of the 21st-century kind of thing, whereas, since his December re-election, all of a sudden now, we're seeing an acceleration of these reforms that are going through Venezuela. What would an election in six years look like? Or after an election in six years, what will that look like? What more will he do? Will he be completing his reforms by his next election, or does he have much more sinister things in mind? And that’s the question that even voters in Venezuela need to think about.

Host: Daniel Erikson, what’s your sense on the prospects for this referendum being a free and fair election?

Erikson: I think that the game table for Venezuela has changed so fundamentally that it’s very hard to have free elections in Venezuela today. And the reality is that Chávez has implemented a number of different policies that have really cracked down on the ability of minority political groups to have rights. I mean there's no opposition in the National Assembly. One of the main media outlets, as you noted in your opening comments, has been closed down very recently. And so I’m not sure that voters in Venezuela really are going to get the other side of the story. I think that Chávez has really effectively tilted the political landscape, where he can, within a certain range, pass any number of measures and have it look like there’s popular consent, but there, you don’t have a democratic framework to begin with.

Host: Eduardo Bertoni, what about other things that are being proposed by President Chávez? I mean, things such as moving the clocks ahead thirty minutes to benefit the metabolism of citizens?

Bertoni: Yes, I think that that change is more than anecdotal, that the real change -- I think that Chávez wants to be different from any other country, so he’s doing that. But going to the constitutional changes and then just mention -- Today is pending in the Assembly in Venezuela legislation relating to the regulation of the nongovernmental organizations. And in some way, what that legislation’s going to do is to ban the criticism of independent and nongovernmental organization by saying, “Okay, if you are a nongovernmental organization, you cannot receive funds from abroad. You cannot receive funds from the Ford Foundation. You cannot receive funds from the European Union. You cannot receive funds from abroad.” Something like this is going into the constitution -- not exactly in the same way, but there is a reform in the constitution that is saying something related to organizations that are receiving support from abroad. This is very, very important. And I think that we need to take into account these kinds of reforms. Just one month or less than two months ago, here in Washington, D.C., Transparency International -- the chapter in Venezuela of Transparency International presented --

Host: This is an anticorruption, nongovernmental group.

Bertoni: Yes, an anticorruption and nongovernmental international organization who has a chapter in all the countries, okay? They presented a report related to some convention against corruption and how Venezuela is implementing that convention. They presented that report to the Organization of American States. The Venezuelan government called to the Organization of American States and their report was taken out of the Website just because the Venezuelan government argued that the Transparency International Venezuelan chapter is receiving funding from abroad. And it is not considered, in Venezuela, a nongovernmental organization. So imagine if you really want an active civil society, a vibrant civil society that is controlling the government -- This is happening all around the world. N-G-Os are receiving funds from many kinds of organizations.

Host: Ted Brennan.

Brennan: And that goes back, also, to your first question, I think, about the referendum and whether or not there can be a fair one. In any really free and fair electoral process, there are nongovernmental organizations that are out there that kind of monitor, watch, send observers kind of thing to look at how these elections, or referenda, in this case, are performed. And we saw that previously with Súmate. They were out there, teaching people how to collect signatures of all things, and Chávez named them enemies of the state and, I guess, still intending on trying them for treason at some point. So you have people out there that are trying to expose, or shine light, on corruption in the Venezuelan government, which I believe there is, and it's becoming more obvious, but, also, in the tricks of the National Electoral Council that’s running these elections. And so, honestly, looking at it now -- and I’ve been an observer in Venezuela on a number of occasions. And while on the surface, it looks okay, if you get down into the weeds, you’re starting to see some real problems. And I think Chávez, if he wants to be president for life, as long as he controls the C-N-E, the Supreme Court, and the National Assembly, he will be president until he dies.

Host: Daniel Erikson, what is there for people in Venezuela to do at this point if that’s not the outcome they want?

Erikson: It’s a very good question. I think that the Venezuelan political scene is very complicated right now. You have an opposition that, on the one hand, is being repressed, but on the other hand, I mean, clearly hasn’t been very effective in getting their message across to people. And in terms of Chávez, Chávez does have a strong base of support in Venezuela. I don't think that can be doubted. You could argue that maybe he has it through manipulation or perhaps through populism that isn't sustainable over the long term, but it makes a very tricky political environment in the sense that, how do you get from here back towards a political system that will have greater tolerance for dissenting viewpoints and, also, have a greater space for opposition groups or minority parties? And I think that continued outside pressure from the United States and other governments could be very helpful in this -- also, trying to engage the Latin American governments. And I think that the U-S -- It’s important that the U.S. still remains very engaged with the Venezuelan people, as well.

Host: Eduardo Bertoni, on this point, what room is there for the U-S to push for transparency, to push for real democratic process in Venezuela? Hugo Chávez has made a lot of political hay out of claiming that anything that goes against him in the country is being driven by the U-S. So how does the U.S. try to push for a true democratic outcome in Venezuela without sort of playing into the role of the Yankee imperialists?

Bertoni: First of all, I think that the U-S foreign policy should pay attention to Hugo Chávez and the Venezuelan government. I am saying that because, in the past, sometimes, the U-S foreign policy was just confrontation with Chávez, which sometimes is needed, but on some occasions, is a need to see if it is -- I mean, to develop a complete foreign policy, try to engage, as Dan said, other countries in controlling this kind of expansion of the revolution that Hugo Chávez wants to expand to other countries in Latin America. And I mean this is something that the Venezuelan government denied, but this is something that happened in Latin America. There are a lot of comments about the Venezuelan government involvement in the Peruvian elections. There are a lot of comments about the Venezuelan involvement in the Bolivian elections. And just two weeks ago, Venezuelan people belonging to the private sector, but with very strong leanings with the government, arrived to Buenos Aires, to Argentina, in a private jet with a bag with eight hundred thousand dollars. Customs stopped him there, and in Argentina, there were some social movements saying, “That was money for us.” So, I mean, this is under investigation, but this is something very, very important that happened two weeks ago. I mean, for many, many months, many people were saying that there is a very big, important involvement of Venezuela in internal domestic politics in Latin America. This is the first time that we have a Venezuelan with money going to a country.

Host: We also see, Ted Brennan, after the recent tragic earthquake in Peru, countless nations sending aid to Peru, aid coming from Venezuela -- cans of tuna. And the cans had pictures of both Hugo Chávez and a Peruvian opposition leader on the can, together with a slogan on the can that says, “The Peruvian government acts in a an inefficient, slow, and heartless manner, notwithstanding the pain of the victims.” So is this sort of a use of a tragedy for political influence in the region?

Brennan: Of course it is. Of course it is. He's buying friends and he's done that all over the world, really, if you look at it, but certainly within Latin America. He's flush with money. He has more money than he knows what to do with.

Host: From the oil revenue, his high oil prices.

Brennan: From the oil revenue, and as long as that oil revenue stays around, he’ll stay around. Unfortunately, they’re having some economic problems now that will fruit at some point, and I think that we’ll see some changes in that country coming up soon. But getting back to your original point, yeah, I mean, he bought elections in Nicaragua. I know he attempted to buy the elections in Aruba recently, within the last two years or so. I know he spends money hand over fist, and I think he even said on “Alo Presidente” recently that, “We’ll give you as much money as you need, and we won’t put any strings on it, like the empire does.” So there’s no performance standards for Venezuelan money. He’ll give it to anybody that’s asking for it, but he never tells them what he’s going to want in return. And we see that occasionally in the O-A-S and the U-N.

Host: And, Daniel Erikson, we have about thirty seconds left. What do you think policy from the U-S and the West should be in dealing with this effort to compete with money in the region?

Erikson: I mean, I think that, obviously, it’s a very difficult problem for the U-S. One consolation, just going off the Peruvian sardine cans is there’s a lot of countries in Latin America that have a long history of accepting aid from outsiders, but don't necessarily do what they want when people come around to ask favors for them. I think we saw some evidence of that in the U-N Security Council vote in Venezuela. But I think that we need, in the short term, to maintain as much diplomatic relation as is feasible with the current Venezuelan government, to also maintain outreach programs with many people that are in the opposition in Venezuelan civil society, and try to show that the United States is a helpful neighbor to Venezuela and it's not just trying to somehow crack down on Chávez, but wants to remain very engaged with the Venezuelan people.

Host: I'm afraid that’s going to have to be the last word. That’s all the time we have for today. But I'd like to thank my guests -- Eduardo Bertoni of the Due Process of Law Foundation; Daniel Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue; and Ted Brennan, a former staff member for the Congressional Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere. Before we go, I'd like to invite you to send us your questions or comments. You can reach us through our Website at www.voanews.com/ontheline. For “On The Line,” I'm Eric Felten.