Egypt's Economic Numbers Look Good, but Approach of Ramadan Tells a Different Story

Sundown at Cairo’s Al-Sayeeda Zainab Mosque. The run-up to Ramadan is a time when shoppers rush to get ready and gather ingredients for the nightly Iftar feast at the end of each day of fasting.

Bread vendor keeps President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi’s campaign flyer on his counter in central Cairo. With Egypt's economic growth expected surpass a whopping 5 percent this year, el-Sissi sailed to victory uncontested in this year’s election with many voters crediting him with improving an economy compared to the one he inherited in 2014.

Shoppers at a fruit stall in Cairo complain of rising prices. IMF and government figures project robust growth and, at 13.3 percent, the lowest inflation in two years – down from more than 30 percent last year. However, the removal of energy and other subsidies have been followed by the continuing rise of food products for Ramadan shoppers this year.

For Amr, a date vendor, the statistics mean nothing on the ground. He complains of poor sales this year. “The prices are double, for any goods, there are lots of food still in stores.”

Anter, another date vendor says the quality of this year’s crop is “better than last year, but no one has the money for it.”

Mohamed, a father of five, shows his largely empty refrigerator. “We use the refrigerator for practically just cooling water these days.”

Analysts like Mohsen Abdulrazik, chief economics editor at Al-Masry newspaper, warn the hardships that average Egyptians are facing could threaten el-Sissi's grip. “The Egyptian government should provide an additional package for social securing, and find a solution for the negative effects on those with limited income because of the financial measures they have taken,” he said.

A campaign poster left over from the March election hangs over a café in central Cairo. El-Sissi ran largely uncontested and secured an easy victory thanks in part to good economic numbers.