The people of Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, will head to the polls Saturday (Nov. 23) to decide whether to seek independence and become the world's newest country.
It's a referendum that has been 20 years in the making, since the end of a brutal civil war.
Analysts predict strong support for independence among voters, but the final decision would be out of their hands.
"It was a crazy war. It started out with a few Bougainvilleans fighting a mining company. Then they took on the PNG army, but after forcing the army out they fought themselves."
Bougainville's civil war lasted from 1988 to 1997. Up to 15,000 people died — or about 5% of the region's population. The conflict was brutal and fueled by anger over a huge gold and copper mine. Locals felt dispossessed and exploited.
A promised referendum on independence was at the heart of a 2001 peace agreement.
The peace process has been mostly successful. There has been some reconciliation between the victims and the perpetrators of violence, and large-scale weapons disposal.
Many on Bougainville have long had secessionist ambitions, and the signs are they will vote to break away.
Annmaree O'Keeffe from the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based research organization, says becoming a new country would be a monumental challenge.
"It is going to be an ongoing struggle to find the funding and human resources needed to establish that usual raft of administrative structures that sovereign nations need,” O’Keeffe said. “Things like treasury, judiciary, defense, immigration, and, of course, the country needs to keep rebuilding education, health, policing, and transport — all of which were badly destroyed during the conflict."
Voting will take place over two weeks. The result is expected next month.
Bougainville has its own government, but it still depends on national authorities for most of its income.
Any vote for independence would need to be approved in time by the PNG National Parliament. There is, however, no timetable for this.
