News / Middle East

Analysts Discuss Impact on Assad From Syria Strike

Analysts Discuss Impact on Assad From Syria Strikei
X
August 30, 2013 11:26 PM
As U.S. officials took to the U.S. airwaves, insisting that the Assad government was responsible for last week's chemical attack in Syria, a U.S. military response seemed increasingly likely. The White House and the State Department have insisted that any U.S. response will be aimed only at preventing President Basahr al-Assad from using weapons of mass destruction again. But the question many are asking is where will that U.S. response leave the embattled Syrian president.

Analysts Discuss Impact on Assad From Syria Strike

— As U.S. officials took to the U.S. airwaves, insisting that the Assad government was responsible for last week's chemical attack in Syria, a U.S. military response seemed increasingly likely. The White House and the State Department have insisted that any U.S. response will be aimed only at preventing President Basahr al-Assad from using weapons of mass destruction again. But the question many are asking is where will that U.S. response leave the embattled Syrian president.

On Friday, President Barack Obama was clear about a possible US strike against Syria. He said it would not be about bringing down the government in Damascus.

"We're not considering any boots-on-the-ground approach. What we will do is consider options that meet the narrow concern around chemical weapons, understanding that there's not going to be a solely military solution to the underlying conflict and tragedy that's taking place in Syria," said Obama.

Last week's chemical weapons attack east of Damascus has the international community in a quandary in terms of how to react. The president's decision matters in real ways to U.S. security, said Secretary of State John Kerry.



"It matters because if we choose to live in a world where a thug and a murderer like Bashar al-Assad can gas thousands of his own people with impunity, even after the United States and our allies said no, and then the world does nothing about it, there will be no end to the test of our resolve and the dangers that will flow from those others who believe that they can do as they will," said Kerry.

If Assad remains in power following a narrow U.S. strike, however, the Syrian leader will have even less incentive to negotiate an end to the country's civil war, said Brookings Institution analyst Michael O'Hanlon.

"Right now President Assad believes he’s winning. And there’s no reason that I can imagine that he would change his mind about giving up power or meaningfully sharing power when he thinks he’s winning," said O'Hanlon.


More than two years into the conflict, Assad forces have reversed some of the earlier gains by rebels with help from Iran and Hezbollah. A limited U.S. attack could even bolster Assad, said Cato Institute analyst Doug Bandow.

"He might gain some credibility being the nationalist who stood up to the Americans. Who knows? To the extent that people think he used chemical weapons, it kind of hurts him. But to the extent that they think he is willing to be tough and stand up, that may help him," said Bandow.

Bandow said Assad is holding on to power not only for himself. "One can imagine Bashar al-Assad getting on an airplane and flying somewhere - Moscow maybe - and enjoying his ill-gotten riches. But there's a whole regime around him. There's a whole lot of people who have really invested in this."

U.S. Military Assets - August 30, 2013U.S. Military Assets - August 30, 2013
x
U.S. Military Assets - August 30, 2013
U.S. Military Assets - August 30, 2013
The Assads belong to Syria's Alawite minority and his government is fighting a largely sectarian war against Sunni Muslims, the majority. It's a battle for control of the country.

Adam Ereli, a former U.S. ambassador, said, "That guy is a hunted, caged lion with sharp teeth and claws, but he's not going anywhere."

While some experts believe Assad ultimately will yield power, for the moment he said he will not be intimidated by any outside aggression.

  • In this citizen journalism image provided by Edlib News Network, ENN, Syrians search under rubble to rescue people from houses that were destroyed by a Syrian government warplane in Idlib province, August 30, 2013.
  • In this citizen journalism image provided by Edlib News Network, ENN, smoke rises after explosives were dropped by a Syrian government warplane in Idlib province, August 30, 2013.
  • In this image taken from video obtained from the Shaam News Network, U.N. investigators gather potential evidence in a Damascus suburb, August 28, 2013.
  • This citizen journalism image provided by the United media office of Arbeen shows Syrians moving a man who was allegedly exposed to chemical weapons to show him to U.N. investigators in a Damascus suburb, August 28, 2013.
  • This citizen journalism image provided by the United media office of Arbeen shows U.N. investigators in a suburb of Damascus, August 28, 2013.
  • Free Syrian Army fighters carry their weapons as they escort U.N. vehicles carrying chemical weapons experts at the site of an alleged chemical weapons attack in a Damascus suburb, August 28, 2013.
  • Free Syrian Army fighters deploy in Aleppo's town of Khanasir after seizing it, August 26, 2013.
  • Free Syrian Army fighters inspect munitions and a tank that belonged to forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad after they seized Khanasir, August 26, 2013.
  • A U.N. chemical weapons expert gathers evidence at site of an alleged poison gas attack in a southwestern Damascus suburb, August 26, 2013.
  • An image grab taken from a video posted by Syrian activists purportedly shows a U.N. inspector speaking to a man in a Damascus suburb, August 26, 2013.
  • U.N. chemical weapons experts visit a hospital where wounded people affected by a suspected gas attack are being treated, in a southwestern Damascus suburb, August 26, 2013.

You May Like

Mali's Female Basketball Players Rebound After Islamist Occupation

Islamist extremists ruled northern Mali for most of 2012, imposing strict Sharia law, and now some 18 months later, the region is slowly getting back on its feet More

Video Vietnamese Staging Chinese Product Boycott After Oil Rig Spat

Many Chinese-made products go unsold, for now, with numerous Vietnamese consumers still angry over recent dispute More

Koreas Mark 61st Anniversary of War Armistice

Muted observances on both sides of heavily-armed Demilitarized Zone that separates two decades-long enemies More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Markt
August 31, 2013 3:46 PM
There is no understanding men of this mindset, Assad will hold onto power even if his power crumbles around his very feet. Hitler held on stubbornly in a bunker for months while Berlin and most of Germany was being blown to bits. Even when Russian soldiers were only yards from the bunker entrance, he never let power go, Hitler still dreamed of a victorious Germany rising from the ashes with him at the helm.
You cannot understand the minds of madmen. Assad will laugh at our 'narrow strike' and do whatever he wants anyway. There is only one way to deal with these types; a bullet to the head.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Students in Business for Themselvesi
X
Mike O'Sullivan
July 26, 2014 11:04 AM
They're only high school students, but they are making accessories for shoes, fabricating backpacks and doing product photography - all through their own businesses. It's the result of a partnership between a non-profit organization that teaches entrepreneurship and their schools. VOA's Mike O'Sullivan and Deyane Moses met the budding entrepreneurs near Los Angeles.
Video

Video Students in Business for Themselves

They're only high school students, but they are making accessories for shoes, fabricating backpacks and doing product photography - all through their own businesses. It's the result of a partnership between a non-profit organization that teaches entrepreneurship and their schools. VOA's Mike O'Sullivan and Deyane Moses met the budding entrepreneurs near Los Angeles.
Video

Video Astronauts Train in Underwater Lab

In the world’s only underwater laboratory, four U.S. astronauts train for a planned visit to an asteroid. The lab - called Aquarius- is located five kilometers off Key Largo, in southern Florida. Living in close quarters and making excursions only into the surrounding ocean, they try to simulate the daily routine of a crew that will someday travel to collect samples of a rock orbiting far away from earth. VOA’s George Putic has more.
Video

Video Not Even Monks Spared From Thailand’s Junta-Backed Morality Push

With Thailand’s military government firmly in control after May’s bloodless coup, authorities are carrying out plans they say are aimed at restoring discipline, morality and patriotism to all Thais. The measures include a crackdown on illegal gambling, education reforms to promote students’ moral development, and a new 24-hour phone hotline for citizens to report misbehaving monks. Steve Sandford reports from Bangkok.
Video

Video Virtual Program Teaches Farming Skills

In a fast-changing world beset by unpredictable climate conditions, farmers cannot afford to ignore new technology. Researchers in Australia are developing an online virtual world program to share information about climate change and more sustainable farming techniques for sugar cane growers. As VOA's Zlatica Hoke reports, the idea is to create a wider support network for farmers.
Video

Video Airline Expert: Missile will Show Signature on Debris

The debris field from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 is spread over a 21-kilometer radius in eastern Ukraine. It is expected to take investigators months to sort through the airplane pieces to learn about the missile that brought down the jetliner and who fired it. VOAs Carolyn Presutti explains how this work will be done.
Video

Video Treatment for Childhood Epilepsy Heats up Medical Marijuana Debate

In the United States, marijuana is classed as an illegal drug by the federal government. But nearly half the states have legalized it, to some degree. Proponents say some strains of marijuana might have exceptional health benefits, for treating pain or inflammation in chronic conditions such as cancer, multiple sclerosis and epilepsy. Shelley Schlender reports on a strain of medical marijuana developed in Colorado that is reputed to reduce seizures in childhood epilepsy
Video

Video Airbus Adds Metal 3D Printed Parts to New Jets

By the end of this year, European aircraft manufacturing consortium Airbus plans to deliver the first of its new, extra-wide-body passenger jets, the A350-XWB. Among other technological innovations, the new plane will also incorporate metal parts made in a 3-D printer. VOA's George Putic has more.
Video

Video AIDS Conference Welcomes Exciting Developments in HIV Treatment, Prevention

Significant strides have been made in recent years toward the treatment and prevention of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. This year, at the International AIDS Conference, the AIDS community welcomed progress on a new pill that may prevent transmission of the deadly virus. VOA’s Anita Powell reports from Melbourne, Australia.
Video

Video IAEA: Iran Turns its Enriched Uranium Into Less Harmful Form

Iran has converted its stockpiles of enriched uranium into a less dangerous form that is more difficult to use for nuclear weapons, according to the United Nations’ Atomic Energy Agency. The move complies with an interim deal reached with Western powers on Iran's nuclear program last year, in exchange for easing of sanctions. Henry Ridgwell reports for VOA from London.

AppleAndroid