News / Asia

    Analysts Downplay US Report on N. Korean Missiles

    A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control center in Cholsan county, North Pyongang province, Dec. 13, 2012.A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control center in Cholsan county, North Pyongang province, Dec. 13, 2012.
    x
    A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control center in Cholsan county, North Pyongang province, Dec. 13, 2012.
    A video grab from KCNA shows the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket launching at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site, at the satellite control center in Cholsan county, North Pyongang province, Dec. 13, 2012.
    Analysts and officials are cautioning against drawing too many conclusions from the partial disclosure of a U.S. intelligence report that suggests North Korea has succeeded in being able to place a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.

    The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon's spy wing, has "moderate confidence" that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by a ballistic missile, according to an unclassified portion of the report disclosed Thursday.

    The partial report, unexpectedly revealed by U.S. Congressman Doug Lamborn during a routine budget hearing in Washington, was cautious, noting that U.S. defense officials still view the North Korean weapons technology as unreliable.

    But the report is still significant because it marks the first time U.S. officials have publicly suggested that North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear weapon, a development that would represent an important new threat in Pyongyang's arsenal.

    Still untested

    Tensions Rising on Korean Peninsula

    • February 12: North Korea carries out third nuclear test
    • March 27: North Korea cuts military hotline with South Korea
    • March 28: U.S. B-2 bombers fly over Korean peninsula
    • March 30: North Korea says it has entered a "state of war" with South Korea
    • April 3: North Korea blocks South Korean workers from Kaesong
    • April 4: North Korea moves a missile to its east coast
    • April 9: North Korea urges foreigners to leave the South.  The U.S. and South Korea raise alert level
    • April 14: US Secretary of State John Kerry offers talks with Pyongyang if it moves to scrap nuclear weapons
    • April 16: North Korea issues threats after anti-Pyongyang protests in Seoul
    • April 29: North Korea holds back seven South Koreans at Kaesong
    • April 30: North Korea sentences American to 15 years hard labor for hostile acts
    • May 20: North Korea fires projectiles for a consecutive third day
    • May 24: North Korean envoy wraps up China visit for talks on Korean tensions
    • June 7: South Korea accepts Pyongyang's offer of talks on Kaesong and other issues
    U.S. defense and intelligence officials immediately downplayed the leaked contents of the report, making clear that Washington still does not consider North Korea a nuclear weapons state.

    “It would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed, or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in the passage," said Pentagon spokesperson George Little in a statement.

    The U.S. director of national intelligence, James Clapper, cautioned the DIA assessment does not reflect the consensus of the U.S. intelligence community. "North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear-armed missile," he said.

    North Korea has so far conducted three nuclear tests. The latest, in February, used what Pyongyang called a "smaller and lighter" atomic bomb. In December, it also succeeded in using a long-range rocket to place a satellite into orbit.

    Both tests were seen as key steps toward North Korea's stated goal of being able to strike the U.S. mainland with a nuclear weapon. But many analysts say North Korea needs years of additional research, development, and tests before this goal can be realized.

    Not only does North Korea need to make a nuclear device small enough to be placed on a missile, analysts say it also must develop reliable long-range missiles and a guidance system able to bring the missile back to earth once it has reached orbit.

     Not much known

    The DIA assessment highlights how much U.S. intelligence officials do not know about the advancements of North Korea's nuclear weapons program, says Cedric Leighton, a retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer.

    "I think what the report indicates is that the intelligence community is continuing its assessment of North Korean capabilities," says Leighton, who now runs his own intelligence management consultancy.

    "They are not conclusive in their statements," he says. "When you talk about 'moderate confidence' and things of that nature, those are careful terms and are deliberately chosen," he says.

    Leighton also warns against focusing on just one portion of a much larger, classified report. He says the entire analysis likely portrayed a much more complex picture of the situation.

    But Bruce Bennett of the RAND Corporation believes the North's nuclear program is likely more advanced than many Western intelligence agencies assume.

    "Certainly North Korea hasn't tested putting a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile," says Bennett. "But for some time there have been reports in Korea that North Korea has already had or will shortly have that kind of capability."

    Bennett says there is reason for heightened concern, especially since North Korea has threatened to conduct yet another weapons test with the mid-range missiles that intelligence agencies say have been moved to its east coast.

    Many expect the test to take place during the run-up to Monday's birthday celebration of North Korea's late founding leader, Kim Il Sung.

    VOA's Victor Beattie contributed to this report

    You May Like

    Video As Refugees Perish, Greek Graveyards Fill

    Before burial at overflowing cemeteries, unidentified dead being swapped for DNA, in case some day relatives come to learn their fate

    Russian Opposition Leader Sues Putin for Conflict of Interest

    Alexei Navalny tells VOA in exclusive interview why transfer of $2 billion from country’s wealth fund to company with ties to President Putin’s son-in-law triggered lawsuit

    Clinton, Sanders Fight for African American Votes

    Some African American lawmakers lining up to support Clinton in face of perceived surge by Sanders in race for Democratic nomination in presidential campaign

    This forum has been closed.
    Comment Sorting
    Comments
         
    by: NVO from: USA
    April 12, 2013 1:19 PM
    The USA so-called "Government" is to blame re who supplied NK with the very nukes that they threaten us with now. Your own government!!! In September 2005 it emerged that the Amsterdam court which sentenced Khan to four years imprisonment in 1983 had lost the legal files pertaining to the case. The court’s vice-president, Judge Anita Leeser, accused the CIA of stealing the files. “Something is not right, we just don’t lose things like that,” she told Dutch news show NOVA. “I find it bewildering that people lose files with a political goal, especially if it is on request of the CIA. It is unheard of.”

    In 2005, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf acknowledged that Khan had provided centrifuges and their designs to North Korea.

    Through their policies in aiding North Korea to build light water reactors, and via the CIA asset AQ Khan who was protected at every step of the way while he helped provide North Korea with the means to build a nuclear arsenal, the U.S. government itself was directly complicit in providing North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il and now his successor Kim Jong-un with the nuclear weapons that have now caused an international crisis with the Korean peninsula on the brink of war.

    Given the documented history of the United States’ role in arming North Korea with the very weapons the reclusive state is now threatening to use against Americans, the constant drumbeat of fearmongering by the US media about North Korea’s intentions is missing a huge part of the story.

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    NATO to Target Migrant Smugglersi
    X
    Jeff Custer
    February 11, 2016 4:35 PM
    NATO has announced plans to send warships to the Aegean Sea to target migrant smugglers in the alliance's most direct intervention so far since a wave of people began trying to reach European shores.
    Video

    Video NATO to Target Migrant Smugglers

    NATO has announced plans to send warships to the Aegean Sea to target migrant smugglers in the alliance's most direct intervention so far since a wave of people began trying to reach European shores.
    Video

    Video Russia's Catholics, Orthodox Hopeful on Historic Pope-Patriarch Meeting

    Russia's Catholic minority has welcomed an historic first meeting Friday in Cuba between the Pope and the Patriarch of Russia's dominant Orthodox Church. The Orthodox Church split with Rome in 1054 and analysts say politics, both church and state, have been driving the relationship in the centuries since. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Moscow.
    Video

    Video Used Books Get a New Life on the Streets of Lagos

    Used booksellers are importing books from abroad and selling them on the streets of Africa's largest city. What‘s popular with readers may surprise you. Chris Stein reports from Lagos.
    Video

    Video After NH Primaries All Eyes on South Carolina

    After Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire, US presidential candidates swiftly turned to the next election coming up in South Carolina. The so-called “first-in-the-South” poll may help further narrow down the field of candidates. Zlatica Hoke reports.
    Video

    Video US Co-ed Selective Service Plan Stirs Controversy

    Young women may soon be required to register with the U.S. Selective Service System, the U.S. government agency charged with implementing a draft in a national emergency. Top Army and Marine Corps commanders told the Senate Armed Services Committee recently that women should register, and a bill has been introduced in Congress requiring eligible women to sign up for the military draft. The issue is stirring some controversy, as VOA’s Bernard Shusman reports from New York.
    Video

    Video Lessons Learned From Ebola Might Help Fight Zika

    Now that the Ebola epidemic has ended in West Africa, Zika has the world's focus. And, as Carol Pearson reports, health experts and governments are applying some of the lessons learned during the Ebola crisis in Africa to fight the Zika virus in Latin America and the Caribbean.
    Video

    Video Smartphone Helps Grow Vegetables

    One day, you may be using your smartphone to grow your vegetables. A Taipei-based company has developed a farm cube — a small, enclosed ecosystem designed to grow plants indoors. The environment inside is automatically adjusted by the cube, but it can also be controlled through an app. VOA's Deborah Block has more on the gardening system.
    Video

    Video Illinois Voters Have Mixed Emotions on Obama’s Return to Springfield

    On the ninth anniversary of the launch of his quest for national office, President Barack Obama returned to Springfield, Illinois, to speak to the Illinois General Assembly, where he once served as state senator. His visit was met with mixed emotions by those with a front-row seat on his journey to the White House. VOA's Kane Farabaugh reports.
    Video

    Video Exhibit Turns da Vinci’s Drawings Into Real Objects

    In addition to being a successful artist, Renaissance genius Leonardo da Vinci designed many practical machines, some of which are still in use today, although in different forms. But a number of his projects were never realized — until today. VOA’s George Putic reports.
    Video

    Video Heated Immigration Debate Limits Britain’s Refugee Response

    Compared to many other European states, Britain has agreed to accept a relatively small number of Syrian refugees. Just over a thousand have arrived so far -- and some are being resettled in remote corners of the country. Henry Ridgwell reports on why Britain’s response has lagged behind its neighbors.
    Video

    Video Russia's Car Sales Shrink Overall, But Luxury and Economy Models See Growth

    Car sales in Russia dropped by more than a third in 2015 because of the country's economic woes. But, at the extreme ends of the car market, luxury vehicles and some economy brands are actually experiencing growth. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Moscow.
    Video

    Video Jordanian Theater Group Stages Anti-Terrorism Message

    The lure of the self-styled “Islamic State” has many parents worried about their children who may be susceptible to the organization’s online propaganda. Dozens of Muslim communities in the Middle East are fighting back -- giving young adults alternatives to violence. One group in Jordan is using dramatic expression a send a family message. Mideast Broadcasting Network correspondent Haider Al Abdali shared this report with VOA. It’s narrated by Bronwyn Benito
    Video

    Video Civil Rights Pioneer Remembers Struggle for Voting Rights

    February is Black History Month in the United States. The annual, month-long national observance pays tribute to important people and events that shaped the history of African Americans. VOA's Chris Simkins reports how one man fought against discrimination to help millions of blacks obtain the right to vote
    Video

    Video Helping the Blind 'See' Great Art

    There are 285 million blind and visually impaired people in the world who are unable to enjoy visual art at a museum. One New York photographer is trying to fix this situation by making tangible copies of the world’s masterpieces. VOA correspondent Victoria Kupchinetsky was there as visually impaired people got a feel for great art. Joy Wagner narrates her report.