News / Middle East

Column: Iran Deal Won't Be a North Korea Report

A screen grab of the Nuclear Test Facility site in North Korea via Google Maps satellite view.A screen grab of the Nuclear Test Facility site in North Korea via Google Maps satellite view.
x
A screen grab of the Nuclear Test Facility site in North Korea via Google Maps satellite view.
A screen grab of the Nuclear Test Facility site in North Korea via Google Maps satellite view.
In the aftermath of the Geneva accords constraining Iran’s nuclear program, some critics of the deal have compared it to the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea that fell apart in 2002 and ended with the North building and testing nuclear weapons.
 
The criticism ignores major differences between Iran – a large, influential country that relies on exporting oil and pays at least some attention to popular sentiment – and North Korea – a small, hereditary totalitarian dictatorship kept afloat by neighboring China.
 
It also ignores key differences in how various U.S. administrations have crafted foreign policy.  While the Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations have all had to deal with an at times obstreperous Congress, the Agreed Framework collapsed in large part because of internecine warfare within the executive branch of the Bush administration.
 
Under Bush “I never felt as though there was a coherent plan to solve the problem,” Charles “Jack” Pritchard, a former senior official dealing with North Korea in both the Clinton and Bush administrations, said in a recent interview.
 
Infighting between professional diplomats in the State Department and hawkish political appointees in the department, as well as in the vice president’s office, National Security Council (NSC) and Pentagon, complicated the U.S. response to reports that North Korea was importing components for a uranium enrichment program – a potential second path to a bomb – while keeping a plutonium reactor mothballed under the terms of the Agreed Framework. When an inter-agency U.S. delegation confronted the North Koreans with this information in October 2002 and the North Koreans admitted it, the Bush administration had not gamed how North Korea would react or what to do.
 
U.S. diplomats wanted to keep negotiating, but among the hawks – many of whom had opposed the Agreed Framework before they came into office – “there was a desire to punish North Korea and publicize how bad it was and that it couldn’t be trusted,” Pritchard said.
 
The White House decided to stop supplying North Korea with heavy fuel oil – a significant carrot in the Agreed Framework – and refused North Korean overtures to continue to talk, arguing that to do so would “reward bad behavior.”  The Pyongyang government responded by throwing out international arms inspectors and quitting the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In 2006, months after the U.S. blacklisted a Macau bank where North Korea had $24 million in deposits, North Korea staged the first of three nuclear tests, using plutonium reprocessed from its reactor at Yongbyon.
 
Bush administration officials such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Undersecretary of State and later UN Ambassador John Bolton argued that there was no option but to confront North Korea with evidence of its cheating. Both men and their supporters also doubted that North Korea could be trusted to keep any nonproliferation agreement. According to Washington Post reporter Glenn Kessler, Cheney in late 2003 is said to have told participants in a high-level White House meeting on North Korea that “We don’t negotiate with evil. We defeat it.” Bolton focused on creating a proliferation security initiative to interdict North Korean contraband and decried the Pyongyang regime for its infamous abuses of human rights – a view that Bush shared.
 
In the Bush administration, particularly its first term, “there was a lack of trust and collegiality” in the foreign policy apparatus, Pritchard said. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s opponents in the bureaucracy used backdoor channels to undermine him, reduce flexibility and leak negative information when multilateral negotiations finally took place.
 
In the Obama administration, in contrast, the NSC, State Department, Treasury Department and Pentagon, as well as the vice president’s office, appear to have worked harmoniously to produce the November 24 agreement with Iran. The Treasury Department has been particularly important as the agency responsible for implementing sanctions against Iran and crafting sanctions relief in return for a deal.
 
President Obama set the tone from the start, beginning his first term in office by reaching out to Iran – a step that helped unify the international community behind unprecedented sanctions when Iran backed out of a 2009 confidence-building deal. In the second term, says Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council and author of two books on Iran, “personnel changes in the last year have made the ideological cohesion in the administration even greater.” There have been no reports of dissension about Iran policy from the NSC, Pentagon or Treasury Department.
 
To the extent that the comparisons between the North Korea and Iran cases have merit, it mostly has to do with Congress. A Republican-led House of Representatives was repeatedly late in appropriating money in the mid-late 1990s to pay for the fuel oil shipments to North Korea. The U.S. and its partners also lagged in constructing two light-water nuclear reactors that were supposed to replace the more proliferation-prone facility at Yongbyon. “The implementation was messed up,” said Joel Wit, a former U.S. official dealing with North Korea.
 
Congress could now try to blow up the Geneva agreement with Iran by imposing new sanctions, which would violate the accords. The Obama administration is trying to convince Congress to hold off on any new sanctions, at least until the interim agreement runs its course in six months.
 
It remains unclear whether the Iran deal will have any impact on North Korea, which seems to have become even more unpredictable since the death two years ago of leader Kim Jong-il and the succession of his son, Kim Jong-un. Kim’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, the apparent power behind the throne, has reportedly just been deposed. “Now I don’t know who’s running the show,” Pritchard said.
 
Pritchard complained that the Obama administration has put North Korea on the back burner, perhaps because “the toothpaste is out of the tube” and North Korea already has nuclear weapons. Plus China is there to prevent the North Koreans from going too far “across the line,” he said.
 
Still, a nuclear deal that sticks with Iran might give even the North Koreans reason to recalculate. As Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, has noted: “Iran and North Korea are the last ripples of the nuclear wave that began with Hiroshima.”
 
If Iran can be persuaded not to build nuclear weapons and North Korea to give them up, there are no other countries likely to take their place in the nuclear wannabe line anytime soon.

Barbara Slavin

Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

You May Like

Obama: Alaskans Feel Signs of Climate Change

Alaskans experiencing bigger storm surges as sea ice melts, more frequent and extensive wildfires, deteriorating glaciers, and swift shoreline erosion More

Katrina Brought Enduring Changes to New Orleans

The city’s recovery is the result of the people and culture the city is famous for, as well as newcomers and start-up industries More

Magical Photo Slides Show Native Americans in Late 1800s

Walter McClintock spent 20 years photographing the Blackfoot Indians and their vanishing culture at the dawn of the modern age More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Change Iran Now from: USA
December 06, 2013 4:28 PM
Iran saw how North Korea fooled the world about its nuclear ambitions (and got away with it). And Iran's just repeating what works.

by: JKF from: Great North (Canada)
December 06, 2013 1:20 PM
The arguments presented are collateral in nature, and do not directly address the fact that- in all these type of agreements the parties to such could/have/may withdraw and continue their negative activities. They can continue because their capabilities, hardware and software, remain in place.
It is not in the nature of absolute governments to stick to agreements, that negate their perceptions, strategic ambitions and self image. The central issue is that depending who the next dictator is, all may change once again, even if the current dictator signs his life away. The best that can be achieved is a roll-back and control of hardware, with clear benefits if the country sustains its committments, and the extreme measures that will be taken if the country transgresses in its committments, need to be enunciated.

Given the current position of Iran = a nuclear threashold state, how far back the capability is rolled, under the agreement, will be the most clear indicator of committment by the Iranian gvmt. At the same time the rolling back of delivery systems, ICBM capability, will be needed. All of it can easily be restarted; so the need exists to deal with the long term security issues, including such as human rights and well beyond just cosmetic changes- and that will be the key to some reasonable confidence in a better future. Lastly there are the regional strategic issues that Iran faces, especially with an unstable nuclear power right on its borders, in which the Sunni/Shia conflict is ongoing.

by: Steve
December 06, 2013 10:43 AM
A rewrite of history we know where his politics lie

by: Godwin from: Nigeria
December 06, 2013 9:45 AM
If you bank on Iran's purported attention to plurality of opinion, I will tell you that Iran is averse to dissidence. 2009 re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a case in point. If North Korea can renege on agreement for any reason, there is no guarantee that Iran, under the same conditions and opportunities, will not take advantage of same to fool both the US and the UN. Already every condition has been present for Iran to make a nuclear bomb. Whatever anyone does or says to make Iran temporarily suspend work on the program does not guarantee a reversal within the shortest time possible. No one should be deceived, if Iran is to be disarmed of nuclear power, enrichment capability should be withdrawn completely under a comprehensive agreement - if it were possible - that will ensure a non-return to prohibited steps.

Nothing should be taken for granted, and nothing should be left on trust. Everything should be done on concrete, verifiable and binding conditions. The six months should be period of courtship during which both parties should find out whether they will live out their parts of the agreement. But it seems the fear of nuclear capability has become the beginning of wisdom so that when a nation wants to pose a stranglehold on the West, it simply goes to launch nuclear program. A way must be found round this to ensure that rogue regimes do not continue to threaten world peace through the possession of nuclear programs. To say it is the right of every nation and country that desires it, seeing its importance or otherwise to peace, security, health and well being of the world does not augur well for the world as presently constituted. In the interim, a total ban on further keying into nuclear possession should be the answer, until there is a way of controlling its usage worldwide. That should be part of the functions of the UN.

by: Change Iran Now from: USA
December 05, 2013 8:41 PM
Oh really? Iran saw how North Korea fooled the world about its nuclear ambitions (and got away with it). And Iran's just repeating what works.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Colombians Flee Venezuela as Border Crisis Escalatesi
X
August 27, 2015 2:08 AM
Hundreds of Colombians have fled Venezuela since last week, amid an escalating border crisis between the two countries. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered the closure of a key border crossing after smugglers injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian. The president also ordered the deportation of Colombians who are in Venezuela illegally. Zlatica Hoke reports.
Video

Video Colombians Flee Venezuela as Border Crisis Escalates

Hundreds of Colombians have fled Venezuela since last week, amid an escalating border crisis between the two countries. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered the closure of a key border crossing after smugglers injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian. The president also ordered the deportation of Colombians who are in Venezuela illegally. Zlatica Hoke reports.
Video

Video Is China's Economic Data Accurate?

Some investors say China's wild stock market gyrations have been made worse by worries about the reliability of that nation's economic data. And some critics say the reports can mislead investors by painting an unrealistically-strong picture of the economy. A key China scholar says Beijing is not fudging ((manipulating)) the numbers, but that the economy is evolving quickly from smoke-stack industries to services, and the ways of tracking new economic activity are falling behind the change. V
Video

Video Next to Iran, Climate at Forefront of Obama Agenda

President Barack Obama this week announced new initiatives aimed at making it easier for Americans to access renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Obama is not slowing down when it comes to pushing through climate change measures, an issue he says is the greatest threat to the country’s national security. VOA correspondent Aru Pande has more from the White House.
Video

Video Shipping Containers Provide Experimental Housing

Housing prices around the San Francisco Bay area are out of reach for many people, so some young entrepreneurs, artists and tech industry workers are creating their own houses using converted shipping containers. But as VOA's Mike O’Sullivan reports from Oakland, the effort requires ingenuity and dealing with restrictive local laws.
Video

Video Arctic Draws International Competition for Oil

A new geopolitical “Great Game” is underway in earth’s northernmost region, the Arctic, where Russia has claimed a large area for resource development and President Barack Obama recently approved Shell Oil Company’s test-drilling project in an area under U.S. control. Greg Flakus reports.
Video

Video Philippine Maritime Police: Chinese Fishermen a Threat to Country’s Security

China and the Philippines both claim maritime rights in the South China Sea.  That includes the right to fish in those waters. Jason Strother reports on how the Philippines is catching Chinese nationals it says are illegal poachers. He has the story from Palawan province.
Video

Video Technique May Eliminate Drill-and-Fill Dental Care

Many people dread visiting dentists because they're afraid of drills. Now, however, a technology developed by a British firm promises to eliminate the need for mechanical cleaning of dental cavities by speeding a natural process of tooth repair. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video China's Spratly Island Building Said to Light Up the Night 'Like A City'

Southeast Asian countries claim China has illegally seized territory in the Spratly islands. It is especially a concern for a Philippine mayor who says Beijing is occupying parts of his municipality. Jason Strother reports from the capital of Palawan province, Puerto Princesa.
Video

Video Ages-old Ice Reveals Secrets of Climate Change

Ice caps don't just exist at the world's poles. There are also tropical ice caps, and the largest sits atop the Peruvian Andes - but it is melting, quickly, and may be gone within the next 20 years. George Putic reports scientists are now rushing to take samples to get at the valuable information about climate change locked in the ice.
Video

Video French Experiment in Integrating Roma Under Threat

Plans to destroy France’s oldest slum have sparked an outcry on the part of its Roma residents. As Lisa Bryant reports from the Paris suburb of La Courneuve, rights groups argue the community is a fledgling experiment on integrating Roma who are often outcasts in many parts of Europe.
Video

Video Kenyans Turn to Agriculture for Business

Each year Kenyan universities continue to churn out graduates for the job market despite the already existing high rate of unemployment among youth in the country. Some of these young men and women have realized that agriculture can be as rewarding as any other business or job, and they are resorting to agribusiness in large numbers as a way of tackling unemployment. Rael Ombuor reports for VOA.
Video

Video First Women Graduate Elite Army Ranger School

Two women are making history for the U.S. Army by proving they are among the toughest of the tough. VOA's Carla Babb reports from Fort Benning, Georgia as 94 men and those two women rise as graduates of the difficult Ranger school.

VOA Blogs