News / USA

Bush Versus Clinton in 2016?

Hillary Clinton / Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton / Jeb Bush
Could it really happen?  What are the odds?  Will voters really want to sign up for either a second Clinton presidency or a third Bush White House?  A quick glance at the latest public opinion polls suggests it is theoretically possible at the very least.  Hillary Clinton is far and away the favorite for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.  The sitting Vice President, Joe Biden, is not even close in the polls.  The only question seems to be, will she run?  It’s not likely we’ll know the answer to that question until late this year or early next.
 
As for possible Republican contenders for 2016, there has been a lot of talk and speculation of late about former Florida governor Jeb Bush.  Like Clinton, Bush says he will make a decision later this year.  But unlike Clinton, his path to the Republican Party’s presidential nomination is far less clear.
 
Bush has said he will only run for the presidency if he can do so “joyfully.”  But you have to wonder how much joy could there be in running the gauntlet of Republican primaries and debates if the last few primary campaigns are any guide.  Bush is a favorite of mainstream, establishment Republicans who worry that Tea Party conservatives have done serious damage to the Republican brand, especially in presidential election years when candidates need to appeal beyond the party base.
 
Pros and cons of a Bush candidacy
 
Jeb Bush would bring formidable political skills to a presidential run.  As a former two-term governor of the swing state of Florida, Bush has experience in winning votes from beyond his own party and in the art of compromise once in office.  He also has a track record of success in winning Hispanic votes probably unmatched by any other potential Republican contender not named Marco Rubio.  Bush won 61 percent of the Hispanic vote when he was first elected governor in 1998 and suffered only a small drop off in his re-election victory in 2002.
 
On the other hand, the Republican Party has changed since he last ran for office 12 years ago.  The rise of the Tea Party movement and the need for national candidates to be cautious about offending that group was on display in the Republican presidential primaries in 2012.  Mitt Romney finally emerged victorious but only after fending off a number of challengers who seemed suspicious that he was a core conservative.  Jeb Bush is already getting a taste of that following his recent comments about immigration reform that have sparked a conservative backlash within the party.
 
Bush spoke at George H.W. Bush’s presidential library and said many undocumented immigrants come to the U.S. out of what he called “an act of love” for their families.  He went on to say that many of those who came into the country illegally broke the law but have not, in his view, committed a felony.  “There should be a price paid, but it shouldn’t rile people up that people are actually coming to this country to provide for their families.”
 
He didn’t have to wait long for a conservative response.  Syndicated conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer called his comments “kind of bizarre.”  Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a likely White House contender in 2016, told CNN that it’s fine to celebrate the U.S. as a nation of immigrants, but “rule of law matters.”  Even Karl Rove, who President George W. Bush referred to as “the architect” of his two presidential victories, said Jeb Bush’s comments were “inartful” on Fox News.  “If he becomes a candidate this is going to be tossed back at him.”
 
This could portend a clash between Bush and the Tea Party should he run in 2016, something many mainstream Republicans would welcome.  They have been more aggressive of late in taking on the Tea Party since last October’s government shutdown, which was inspired by Tea Party favorites like Ted Cruz but wound up hurting the Republican brand nationally.  For those in the Republican Party establishment who want to push back on the Tea Party, a presidential run by Jeb Bush might give them the opportunity to make the case that the party can still appeal to moderate voters who wield big influence in presidential elections.
 
Beyond Bush’s potential problem with conservatives is another issue—the family name.  The public approval ratings for his brother, former President George W. Bush, have only recently started to inch up.  Some Republican strategists worry that ‘Bush fatigue’ remains a real issue for many voters and could hurt their chances in 2016.
 
 
Ready for Hillary
 
Hillary Clinton has been busy of late, giving paid speeches around the country and trying to duck the question of whether or not she’s running in 2016.  During a recent appearance in San Francisco, Clinton said the hard question was not “Do you want to be president?” but rather “Why would want to do this?” and “What could you offer that could make a difference?”
 
Despite her attempts to keep a low profile there are fresh signs that Clinton would be a formidable contender if she ran.  A recent poll in Iowa by Suffolk University found her winning the support of 63 percent of self-described Iowa Caucus goers.  Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren was a distant second with 12 percent followed by Vice President Joe Biden with 10 percent.
 
In addition, the independent political action committee known as Ready for Hillary announced it has raised $1.7 million in the first three months of this year, another sign that Democrats would seem to be in a giving mood if Clinton decided to take the White House plunge.  Ready for Hillary is not officially sanctioned by the Clinton camp but has already raised a total of $5.75 million in hopes of luring her into the race.
 
The media scrutiny will only intensify in the months ahead.  Clinton’s new book on her time as President Obama’s secretary of state will be released on June 10th and publisher Simon and Schuster says it will include “candid reflections” about key moments during her tenure at the State Department and some “thoughts about how to navigate the challenges of the 21st Century.”  Presuming the usual round of network TV interviews and media hype, it will vault Hillary Clinton back into the public spotlight and keep alive that favorite political parlor game known as, ‘Will she or won’t she?’
 
So what are the odds of a Clinton-Bush matchup in 2016?  Clinton would seem to have an easier path to her party’s nomination that Jeb Bush.  But don’t forget that Clinton was the clear favorite to be the party’s standard-bearer in 2008, only to be upset by a rookie senator from Illinois who captured the heart and soul of the Democratic Party and then went on to win a convincing victory that November over Republican John McCain.

You May Like

Video Genome Initiative Urgently Works to Freeze DNA Before Species Go Extinct

Smithsonian senior research botanist Vicki Funk says ultimate goal is 'trying to get one-half of the diversity of plant life on Earth at the genus level in two years' More

Video Russia Accused of Abusing Interpol to Pursue Opponents

Report from member of British think tank says Russian extradition requests keep targets from traveling More

US Lawmakers Weigh Turkish Anti-terror Moves

Turkey’s two-pronged campaign against Islamic State militants, Kurdish PKK forces provokes mixed reactions on Capitol Hill More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: ali baba from: new york
April 11, 2014 12:59 AM
The eight years for Obama administration has made several set back to democrat . the unemployment is high. people has to work two jobs for making a living. drugs problem is getting worst because local police is not aggressive enough to enforce the law. Foreign policy is getting worst .radical Islam in control of turkey ,Pakistan and Afghisstan, Syria ,Somali .Mali. and very soon Nigeria . the foreign policy of democrat has not stopped radical Islam because they believe that Islam is a peaceful religion. the economy is not getting better even we have the largest sources in natural gas that could say good bye to Arab oil. health care is going to bankrupt the country by greedy doctors and hospital. for all this reason the country need a change and that change is democratic approach

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Russia Accused of Abusing Interpol to Pursue Opponentsi
X
Henry Ridgwell
July 28, 2015 9:53 PM
A British pro-democracy group has accused Russia of abusing the global law enforcement agency Interpol by requesting the arrest and extradition of political opponents. A new report by the group notes such requests can mean the accused are unable to travel and are often unable to open bank accounts. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
Video

Video Russia Accused of Abusing Interpol to Pursue Opponents

A British pro-democracy group has accused Russia of abusing the global law enforcement agency Interpol by requesting the arrest and extradition of political opponents. A new report by the group notes such requests can mean the accused are unable to travel and are often unable to open bank accounts. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
Video

Video Genome Initiative Urgently Moves to Freeze DNA Before Species Go Extinct

Earth is in the midst of its sixth mass extinction. The last such event was caused by an asteroid 66 million years ago. It killed off the dinosaurs and practically everything else. So scientists are in a race against time to classify the estimated 11 million species alive today. So far only 2 million are described by science, and researchers are worried many will disappear before they even have a name. VOA’s Rosanne Skirble reports.
Video

Video Scientists: One-Dose Malaria Cure is Possible

Scientists have long been trying to develop an effective protection and cure for malaria - one of the deadliest diseases that affects people in tropical areas, especially children. As the World Health Organization announces plans to begin clinical trials of a promising new vaccine, scientists in South Africa report that they too are at an important threshold. George Putic reports, they are testing a compound that could be a single-dose cure for malaria.
Video

Video Special Olympics Athletes Meet International Friends

The Special Olympics are underway in Los Angeles, California, with athletes from 165 countries participating in an event that gives people with intellectual disabilities the chance to take part in an international competition. VOA's Mike O'Sullivan reports that for athletes and their families, it's also an opportunity to make new friends in an international setting.
Video

Video 'New York' Magazine Features 35 Cosby Accusers

The latest issue of 'New York' magazine features 35 women who say they were drugged and raped by film and television celebrity Bill Cosby. The women are aged from 44 to 80 and come from different walks of life and races. The magazine interviewed each of them separately, but Zlatica Hoke reports their stories are similar.
Video

Video US Calls Fight Against Human Trafficking a Must Win

The United States is promising not to give up its fight against what Secretary of State John Kerry calls the “scourge” of modern slavery. Officials released the country’s annual human trafficking report Monday – a report that’s being met with some criticism. VOA’s National Security correspondent Jeff Seldin has more from the State Department.
Video

Video Iran Nuclear Pact Wins Few New US Congressional Backers

Later this week, President Barack Obama returns from a trip to Africa to confront a U.S. Congress roiled by the nuclear accord with Iran, an agreement that has received the blessing of the U.N. Security Council. Days of intensive lobbying and testimony by top administration officials have won few new congressional supporters of the pact. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports.
Video

Video Washington DC Underground Streetcar Station to Become Arts Venue

Abandoned more than 50 years ago, the underground streetcar station in Washington D.C.’s historic DuPont Circle district is about to be reborn. The plan calls for turning the spacious underground platforms - once meant to be a transportation hub, - into a unique space for art exhibitions, presentations, concerts and even a film set. Roman Mamonov has more from beneath the streets of the U.S. capital. Joy Wagner narrates his report.
Video

Video Europe’s Twin Crises Collide in Greece as Migrant Numbers Soar

Greece has replaced Italy as the main gateway for migrants into Europe, with more than 100,000 arrivals in the first six months of 2015. Many want to move further into Europe and escape Greece’s economic crisis, but they face widespread dangers on the journey overland through the Balkans. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
Video

Video Stink Intensifies as Lebanon’s Trash Crisis Continues

After the closure of a major rubbish dump a week ago, the streets of Beirut are filling up with trash. Having failed to draw up a plan B, politicians are struggling to deal with the problem. John Owens has more for VOA from Beirut.
Video

Video Paris Rolls Out Blueprint to Fight Climate Change

A U.N. climate conference in December aims to produce an ambitious agreement to fight heat-trapping greenhouse gases. But many local governments are not waiting, and have drafted their own climate action plans. That’s the case with Paris — which is getting special attention, since it’s hosting the climate summit. Lisa Bryant takes a look for VOA at the transformation of the French capital into an eco-city.
Video

Video Racially Diverse Spider-Man Takes Center Stage

Whether it’s in a comic book or on the big screen, fans have always known the man behind the Spider-Man mask as Peter Parker. But that is changing, at least in the comic book world. Marvel Comics announced that a character called Miles Morales will replace Peter Parker as Spider-Man in a new comic book series. He is half Latino, half African American, and he is quite popular among comic book fans. Correspondent Elizabeth Lee reports from Los Angeles.
Video

Video Critics of Japan Defense Policy Focus on Okinawa

In Okinawa, many locals have long complained that Tokyo places an unfair burden on the tiny island by locating most of Japan's U.S. military bases there. As Japan's government moves toward strengthening and expanding the country's defense policies, opponents of those plans are joining local protesters in Okinawa, voicing concern about where the country is headed. VOA’s Brian Padden reports from Okinawa.
Video

Video IS Uses Chemical Weapons in Syrian Attack

Islamic State militants have added a new weapon in their arsenal of fear: chemical weapons. VOA Kurdish service reporter Zana Omer was on the scene within hours of a recent attack in Hasakah, Syria, and has details of the subsequent investigation, in this report narrated by Miguel Amaya.
Video

Video Historic Symbol Is Theme of Vibrant New Show

A new exhibit in Washington is paying tribute to the American flag with a wide and eclectic selection of artwork that uses the historic symbol as its central theme. VOA’s Julie Taboh was at the DC Chamber of Commerce for the show’s opening.

VOA Blogs