News / Asia

China Predicted to Overtake US as Economic Power by 2030

A Chinese laborer works at a steel factory in Dalian, Liaoning province, December 4, 2012.
A Chinese laborer works at a steel factory in Dalian, Liaoning province, December 4, 2012.
VOA News
A new U.S. intelligence assessment says China is expected to surpass the United States as the leading economic power by 2030, but the U.S. will remain a top world leader.

The assessment was released Monday by the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.    

It predicts that Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in terms of indices of overall power - in gross domestic product, population size, military spending and technological investment.

The report says the world will see an expanding middle class by 2030, and for the first time a majority of the world's population will not be impoverished.

It notes an expected higher demand on resources, as the global population expands by about a billion to 8 billion people. It says nearly half of the world's population will live in areas with severe water stress. It says China and India are vulnerable to shortages of key resources, while limited resources such as water and arable land could increase the risks of intrastate conflict in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of the Middle East.

Dependence and volatility

It says the United States will likely be energy independent, while Russia, Europe and Japan are predicated to see slow economic declines.

The assessment anticipates that the Middle East will remain the world's most volatile region, and any future wars in Asia and the Middle East could include a nuclear component, making conflicts hard to contain and with global impact.

It also warns that countries including Afghanistan, Burundi, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen face a high risk of state failure.

The National Intelligence Council publishes a global trends report every four years. The report is an analysis of information from the U.S. intelligence community and experts in the U.S. and abroad.

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by: S
December 12, 2012 12:21 PM
These look less like predictions and more like the plan the top 1% of the USA want executed for their investments to gain enough to satisfy their greed. Best to tell them what they want to hear if they want that massive US military budget to expand I suppose.

by: Mhee from: Philippines
December 11, 2012 6:29 PM
Made in China,CHEAP!!!!!!(low quality
) almost all products in the Philippines are made in China and not just in the Phils. its everywhere how it will it not bloom,lol

by: Anonymous
December 11, 2012 9:02 AM
That's impossible, the features lead Chinese economic growth are still in the low level.

by: Walter Johnson
December 11, 2012 5:30 AM
China has before long been the world's largest economic power, but that has not resulted in much improvement in the life of its peasants compared to the average American. We have nothing to fear from a capitalistic or socialistic China as long as their ultimate goal is to improve the lives of all their people.

The basic fact is that military spending is always at the expense of a nation's economy, and China has so far shown no inclination to compete militarily with the USA, perhaps because either they recognize how big a challenge that will be or because they want to keep the USA population as important consumers of Chinese exports.

by: Sun from: Taipei
December 11, 2012 2:48 AM
Congratulations, China mainland! However, I can't believe that this prediction is correct, but think that this US assessment is based on such an uncertain hypothesis as PRC persists after 2030. The current big income divide will sure break PRC before 2030.

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