News / Middle East

Experts: Iran-GCC Rapprochement Remains Elusive

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks with Kuwait's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Sabah al Khalid al Sabah during a working luncheon in Kuwait City December 1, 2013. REUTERS/Stephanie McGehee (KUWAIT - Tags: POLITICS) - RTX15ZJX
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks with Kuwait's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Sabah al Khalid al Sabah during a working luncheon in Kuwait City December 1, 2013. REUTERS/Stephanie McGehee (KUWAIT - Tags: POLITICS) - RTX15ZJX
Cecily Hilleary
Following its recent nuclear agreement with the six world powers, analysts say Iran is actively looking to mend fences with its Gulf neighbors. Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif recently completed a whirlwind tour of four of the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and secured promises of reciprocal visits.  But mistrust of Iran runs high in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and experts say Tehran’s recently diplomatic initiative is unlikely to sway its wary neighbors. 

Thomas Mattair who is Executive Director of the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, D.C., says suspicion of Iran among the Gulf Arab starts with the fact that Iran is a revolutionary state whose agenda is in conflict with both Western nations and its Gulf neighbors.
Thomas MattairThomas Mattair
x
Thomas Mattair
Thomas Mattair

“It’s also a regime that has instigated unrest in the Arab Gulf states,” Mattair said.  “It has cultivated Shia communities that are minorities and encouraged their protests and it has engaged in terror in these states—not recently, but recently enough to be remembered and to be a concern.”

Mattair points out that Iran took advantage of the U.S. intervention in Iraq to infiltrate Revolutionary Guards into Iraq, challenge U.S. forces, shape Iraqi militias and, he says, ultimately gain influence over the government of Nouri al-Maliki. 

“And that is a very big potential threat to the Gulf Arab leaders, to see Iran in such a position of power in Iraq,” Mattair said. 

Iran, he says, is helping fuel sectarian conflict in Syria by siding with the Syrian government in what has increasingly become a sectarian conflict between Bashar al-Assad’s largely Alawite army and Sunni rebels.

“And so when the Sunni Arab leaders see Sunni Arabs being slaughtered in Syria by an Alawite regime - an offshoot of Shi’ism, supported by Iran - they face domestic pressure from their own Sunni populations to do something about this," he said.

Mattair also says Gulf Arab states view Iran as a geopolitical threat in terms of its conventional and covert capabilities. “It’s a big, looming powerful country from the perspective of the Gulf Arab regimes,” he said, “and that is why they also spend so much time and money building their defenses."

Majid Rafizadeh is an American political scientist, analyst and commentator on the Middle East and Iran. He says Iran is unlikely to fundamentally change its behavior  toward its regional Gulf neighbors because, as he puts it, “from the perspective of Iranian leaders and particularly Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, Iran's supreme leader, any change would lessen Iran's influence and diminish Tehran's power and leverage, regionally and internationally.”

Majid RafizadehMajid Rafizadeh
x
Majid Rafizadeh
Majid Rafizadeh
Rafizadeh says the GCC states are generally suspicion of Tehran's intention to halt its nuclear program, as demonstrated in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables which reported that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah called on the U.S. to “cut off the head of the snake” by destroying Iran’s nuclear sites in a military strike.

“It is also crucial to point out that this is not the first time that Iran reaches a first temporary deal with the P5+1,” Rafizadeh said. “Eagerness and pressure from both sides usually have contributed to broad first agreements. However, it is less likely that the provisional agreement will lead to an enduring one.”

Rafizadeh says previous agreements have failed over Tehran’s objections to site inspections or when Tehran has disputed the interpretation of the text of an agreement previously agreed to by all parties.

“Iran's stand on its nuclear program and the P5+1 and the West's position seem to be too deep to bridge,” Rafizadeh said.

While Tehran’s recently diplomatic flurry might improve relations with its GCC neighbors in small ways, Rafizadeh believes that the underlying geopolitical, ideological, sectarian, and strategic tensions with Gulf Arab neighbors are too deep and complex to resolve anytime soon.

You May Like

Karzai's Legacy: Missed Opportunities?

Afghanistan's president leaves behind a much different nation than the one he inherited, yet his legacy from 13 years in power is getting mixed reviews More

US Urges Restraint in Hong Kong Protests

Protesters angered by Beijing's decision to only approve candidates that it sanctions for Hong Kong's leadership elections in 2017 More

Archive of Forgotten UCLA Speeches Offers Snapshot of History

Recordings of prominent voices in social change, politics, science and literature from 1960s, early 1970s now available on YouTube More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Godwin from: Nigeria
December 11, 2013 9:08 AM
Don't understand what is driving the Obama administration's suicidal trust in Iran when its gulf neighbors who understand Iran in-depth have been sensing nothing but danger in it. Again Ed Royce argued in the House about Iran's history of deceit and so not be trusted. Yet Obama and Kerry think otherwise. While I see in Obama the the desire to hurt someone by the action of gratuitous support to Iran, I see in Kerry someone who wants to keep his job having been out of job by accepting to serve someone he earlier rubbed shoulders with in the lead up to the presidential primaries - he is both deceived and subjugated; quite a pity.

But once again I see US politicians placing self before the country, as happened during the shutdown. Add to this that Iran is moving forward with the 1992 plans with Russia building more new nuclear plants in the gulf despite the interim deal with so-called world powers. Add also to it that the Iranians have vowed to not give up the entirety of uranium enrichment inside the country - which is the source of fear in Iran's nuclear program, the bone of contention. So what is the trust? Do Mr. Obama and Kerry think they will make the Ayatollah Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani and other hardliners change their minds on the issue?

Do they first want to see Iran meet its target of reaching nuclear warhead? What do they want to achieve seeing that everything they are doing right now will be a waste in the end because at the end of six months, the whole negotiation will enter reverse gear and neuter whatever they think has been achieved earlier. It's all exercise in futility. Question is, why should both Kerry and Obama waste both time and resources in it knowing it is going to end in failure, as every indication points to?

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Treasure Hunters Seek 'Hidden Treasure' in Central Kenyai
X
Gabe Joselow
September 29, 2014 6:20 PM
Could a cave in a small village in central Kenya be the site of buried treasure? A rumor of riches, left behind by colonialists, has some residents dreaming of wealth, while others see it as a dangerous hoax. VOA's Gabe Joselow has the story.
Video

Video Treasure Hunters Seek 'Hidden Treasure' in Central Kenya

Could a cave in a small village in central Kenya be the site of buried treasure? A rumor of riches, left behind by colonialists, has some residents dreaming of wealth, while others see it as a dangerous hoax. VOA's Gabe Joselow has the story.
Video

Video Iran's Rouhani Skeptical on Syria Strikes

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani expressed skepticism Friday that U.S.-led airstrikes in Iraq and Syria could crush Islamic State militants. From New York, VOA’s Margaret Besheer reports the president was also hopeful that questions about Iran’s nuclear program could be resolved soon.
Video

Video US House Speaker: Congress Should Debate Authorization Against IS

As wave after wave of U.S. airstrikes target Islamic State militants, the speaker of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives says he would be willing to call Congress back into session to debate a formal, broad authorization for the use of military force. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports from Washington, where legislators left town 10 days ago for a seven-week recess.
Video

Video Ebola Patients Find No Treatment at Sierra Leone Holding Center

At a holding facility in Makeni, central Sierra Leone, dozens of sick people sit on the floor in an empty university building. They wait in filthy conditions. It's a 16-hour drive by ambulance to Kailahun Ebola treatment center. Adam Bailes was there and reports on what he says are some of the worst situations he has seen since the beginning of this Ebola outbreak. And he says it appears case numbers may already be far worse than authorities acknowledge.
Video

Video Identifying Bodies Found in Texas Border Region

Thousands of immigrants have died after crossing the border from Mexico into remote areas of the southwestern United States in recent years. Local officials in south Texas alone have found hundreds of unidentified bodies and buried them in mass graves in local cemeteries. Now an anthropologist and her students at Baylor University have been exhuming bodies and looking for clues to identify them. VOA’s Greg Flakus has more from Waco, Texas.
Video

Video Ebola Robs Liberians of Chance to Say Good-Bye to Loved Ones

In Liberia, where Ebola has killed more than 1,500 people, authorities have worked hard to convince people to allow specialized burial teams to take away dead bodies. But these safety measures, while necessary, make it hard for people to say good bye to their loved ones. VOA's Anne Look reports on the tragedy from Liberia.
Video

Video Reconstruction? What Reconstruction? Life After War in Gaza

It’s been a month since Israel and the Palestinians agreed to a ceasefire to end 52 days of an air and tank war that left 60,000 homes in Gaza damaged or destroyed and 110,000 homeless. Sharon Behn reports that lack of reconstruction is leading to despair.
Video

Video US, Saudi Arabia and UAE Hit Islamic State's Oil Revenue

The United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have bombed oil facilities operated by Islamic State militants in Syria. It was a truly collaborative effort, with the two Arab countries dropping the majority of the bombs. The 12 refineries targeted were estimated to generate as much as $2 million per day for the terrorist group. VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb has the story.
Video

Video Russia's Food Sanctions Raise Price Worries, Hopes for Domestic Production

Russia retaliated against Western sanctions imposed for its actions in Ukraine by halting food imports from the West. The temporary import ban on food from Australia, the European Union, Norway and North America has Russian consumers concerned that they could face a sharp increase in food prices. But in an ironic twist, the restrictions aimed at the Kremlin have made Russia's domestic food producers hopeful this can boost their business. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Moscow.
Video

Video Washington to Pyongyang: 'Shut This Evil System Down'

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is calling on North Korea to shut down prison camps and other human rights abuses following a United Nations Commission of Inquiry into "widespread and systematic human rights violations." VOA State Department Correspondent Scott Stearns reports from the United Nations.
Colonel Steve ‘Spiros’ Pisanos left Greece and came to the U.S. to learn to fly. He flew fighters for the Allies in World War II, narrowly escaping death multiple times.Colonel Steve ‘Spiros’ Pisanos left Greece and came to the U.S. to learn to fly. He flew fighters for the Allies in World War II, narrowly escaping death multiple times.

AppleAndroid