News / Asia

Experts Split on Bo Xilai's Fate

Bo Xilai (March 11, 2012)
Bo Xilai (March 11, 2012)
VOA News
A former Chinese police chief at the center of a major Communist Party political scandal has been charged with defection, taking bribes, and abuse of power.

But experts are split on what the charges against Wang Lijun mean for Bo Xilai, the once-powerful ex-party boss whose career has seemingly been shattered by the crisis.

The incident began in February, when Wang fled to the U.S. consulate in Chongqing to inform American diplomats that Bo's wife, Gu Kailai, was involved in the murder of a British businessman.

Where's Bo?

Timeline of the Bo Xilai Scandal

  • February 2: Bo's key ally and Chongqing police chief, Wang Lijun, is demoted.
  • February 6: Wang visits U.S. consulate in Chengdu, reportedly to seek asylum.
  • March 2: Xinhua reports Wang is under investigation.
  • March 9: Bo defends himself and his wife, Gu Kailai, at a press conference.
  • March 15: Bo dismissed as Chongqing party chief.
  • March 26: Britain asks China to investigate November death of Briton Neil Heywood in Chongqing.
  • April 10: Bo suspended from Politburo and top Communist Party posts. China announces Gu is being investigated for Heywood's death.
  • July 26: Gu charged with Heywood's murder.
  • August 10: Four Chinese police go on trial for allegedly helping cover up the Heywood murder.
  • August 20: Gu given suspended death sentence after confessing to Heywood's murder.
  • September 18: Two day trial of Wang for defection and abuse of power ends without him contesting the charges.
     
But while Bo's wife was convicted last month for the murder, Bo himself has not been heard from. Although he was stripped of his party posts and placed under investigation for unspecified "disciplinary violations," it is not clear whether he will face criminal charges.

Some analysts expect the party to be lenient with Bo, pointing out that his name was not even mentioned during Gu's tightly orchestrated murder case or in the official charges against Wang. They say this suggests he will not be accused of direct involvement in the crime.

But Bonnie Glaser, a China analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the silence about Bo could also mean Beijing has not yet made a decision on his future.

"Bo Xilai's fate has not yet been determined," says Glaser. "It remains to be seen whether Bo Xilai will be charged, whether he will be charged in public, or whether he will just be dealt with through the parallel party system, and it is my guess that it will be the latter."

Glaser points to the case of former Chinese premier Zhao Ziyang, who fell out of favor with the party following the Tiananmen Square protests. Zhao was dealt with internally and spent the rest of his life under house arrest. Glaser says Bo could receive the same fate.

Possible punishment

It is also unclear as to when Beijing will make any announcement regarding possible punishment for Bo. Glaser says it is in the interest of the Communist Party to wrap up the embarrassing scandal before a sensitive leadership transition later this year.

"I think these are issues that the Chinese leadership would like to get out of the way prior to the opening of the 18th Party Congress, which now is likely to be in mid-October." she says, adding: "I think they will probably do so."

Others are not so sure. International Studies Chairman Baogang He of Australia's Deakin University says he does not expect to hear much news on Bo's fate before the leadership transition.

"They do have an incentive to try Bo Xilai before the 18th Party Congress," he says. "But it is probably unlikely."

He adds that it is unlikely that Bo's trial would be conducted in private, saying this could undermine public confidence in China's legal system.

Although there are more questions than answers surrounding the whole scandal, Chinese state media - when they have spoken on the sensitive topic - have put a positive spin on the controversy.

An editorial in the Communist Party-controlled Global Times  newspaper said Thursday that the charges against Wang show a "certainty of justice," and declared that "the stir has already passed."

  • In this photo released by the Jinan Intermediate People's Court, Bo Xilai is handcuffed and held by police officers as he stands at the court in Jinan, in eastern China's Shandong province, Sept. 22, 2013.
  • A minivan believed to be carrying Bo Xilai arrives at the Jinan Intermediate People's Court ahead of the fifth day of Bo's trial, August 26, 2013. 
  • In this image taken from video, Bo Xilai addresses a court at Jinan Intermediate People's Court in eastern China's Shandong province, Aug. 24, 2013.
  • A woman protests outside the Jinan Intermediate People's Court, eastern China's Shandong province, August 21, 2013.
  • Gu Kailai, wife of Bo Xilai, is seen in a still image taken from an August 10, 2013 video provided by the Jinan Intermediate People's Court.
  • Policemen are seen at a court building where the trial for Bo Xilai was held in Jinan, Shandong province.
  • Former police chief Wang Lijun speaks during a court hearing in Chengdu, China, in this still image taken from CCTV video, Sept. 18, 2012.
  • This video image taken from CCTV shows Gu Kailai, wife of Bo Xilai, being taken into the Intermediate People's Court in the eastern Chinese city Hefei, August 9, 2012.
  • Police officers stand guard at the Hefei City Intermediate People's Court for the murder trial of Gu Kailai, Anhui Province, China, August 9, 2012.
  • A  combonation photo showing Neil Heywood and Gu Kailai.
  • Bo Xilai, walks past Communist Party leaders at the National People's Congress in Beijing, March 9, 2012.
  • Bo Xilai, right and his son, Bo Guagua, 2007.

You May Like

IS Militants Release 49 Turkish Hostages

Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency reports that no ransom was paid and no conditions accepted for the hostages' release; few details of the release are known More

Photogallery IS Attacks Send Thousands of Syrian Kurds Fleeing to Turkey

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says more than 300 Kurdish fighters crossed into Syria from Turkey to defend a Kurdish area from attack by the Islamic militants More

Sierra Leone's Ebola Lockdown Continues

Thousands of health workers are going door to door in the West African country of 6 million, informing people of how to avoid Ebola, handing out soap More

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Migrants Caught in No-Man's Land Called Calaisi
X
Lisa Bryant
September 19, 2014 5:04 PM
The deaths of hundreds of migrants in the Mediterranean this week has only recast the spotlight on the perils of reaching Europe. And for those forunate enough to reach a place like Calais, France, only find that their problems aren't over. Lisa Bryant has the story.
Video

Video Migrants Caught in No-Man's Land Called Calais

The deaths of hundreds of migrants in the Mediterranean this week has only recast the spotlight on the perils of reaching Europe. And for those forunate enough to reach a place like Calais, France, only find that their problems aren't over. Lisa Bryant has the story.
Video

Video Westgate Siege Anniversary Brings Back Painful Memories

One year after it happened, the survivors of the terror attack on Nairobi's Westgate Shopping Mall still cannot shake the images of that tragic incident. For VOA, Mohammed Yusuf tells the story of victims still waiting for the answer to the question 'how could this happen?'
Video

Video Militant Assault in Syria Displaces Thousands of Kurds

A major assault by Islamic State militants on Kurds in Syria has sent a wave of new refugees to the Turkish border, where they were stopped by Turkish border security. Turkey is already hosting about 700,000 Syrian refugees who fled the civil war between the government and the opposition. But the government in Ankara has a history of strained relations with Turkey's Kurdish minority. Zlatica Hoke reports Turkey is asking for international help.
Video

Video CERN Accelerator Back in Business

The long upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider is over. The scientific instrument responsible for the discovery of the Higgs boson -- the so-called "God particle" -- is being brought up to speed in time for this month's 60th anniversary of the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. Physicists hope the accelerator will help them uncover more secrets about the origins of the universe. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video Whaling Summit Votes to Uphold Ban on Japan Whale Hunt

The International Whaling Commission, meeting in Slovenia, has voted to uphold a court ruling banning Japan from hunting whales in the Antarctic Ocean. Conservationists hailed the ruling as a victory, but Tokyo says it will submit revised plans for a whale hunt in 2015. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
Video

Video Russian Economy Reeling After New Western Sanctions

A new wave of Western sanctions is hitting Russia’s economy hard. State-owned energy firms continue to bleed profits and Russia’s national currency plunged to a new low this week after the U.S. and the European Union announced new sanctions to punish Russia's aggressive stance in eastern Ukraine. But as Mil Arcega reports, the sanctions could also prove costly for European and American companies.
Video

Video Belgian Researchers Discover Way to Block Cancer Metastasis

Cancer remains one of the deadliest diseases, despite many new methods to combat it. Modern medicine has treatments to prevent the growth of primary tumor cells. But most cancer deaths are caused by metastasis, the stage when primary tumor cells change and move to other parts of the body. A team of Belgian scientists says it has found a way to prevent that process. Zlatica Hoke has more.
Video

Video Mogadishu's Flood of Foreign Workers Leaves Somalis Out of Work

Unemployment and conflict has forced many young Somalians out of the country in search of a better life. But a newfound stability in the once-lawless nation has created hope — and jobs — which, some say, are too often being filled by foreigners. Abdulaziz Billow reports from Mogadishu.
Video

Video A Dinosaur Fit for Land and Water

Residents and tourists in Washington D.C. can now examine a life-size replica of an unusual dinosaur that lived almost a hundred million years ago in northern Africa. Scientists say studying the behemoth named Spinosaurus helps them better understand how some prehistoric animals adapted to life on land and in water. The Spinosaurus replica is on display at the National Geographic museum. VOA’s George Putic has more.
Video

Video Iraqi Kurdistan Church Helps Christian Children Cope find shelter in churches in the Kurdish capital, Irbil

In the past six weeks, tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians have been forced to flee their homes by Islamic State militants and find shelter in churches in the Kurdish capital, Irbil. Despite U.S. airstrikes in the region, the prospect of people returning home is still very low and concerns are starting to grow over the impact this is having on the displaced youth. Sebastian Meyer reports from Irbil on how one church is coping.
Video

Video NASA Picks Boeing, SpaceX to Carry Astronauts Into Space

The U.S. space agency, NASA, has chosen Boeing and SpaceX companies to build the next generation of spacecraft that will carry U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station by the year 2017. The deal with private industry enables NASA to end its dependence on Russia to send space crews into low Earth orbit and back. Zlatica Hoke has more.
Video

Video Future of Ukrainian Former President's Estate Uncertain

More than six months after Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych fled revolution to Russia, authorities have yet to gain control of his palatial estate. Protesters occupy the grounds and opened it to tourists but they are also refusing to turn it over to the state. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Mezhigirya, just north of Kyiv.


Carnage and mayhem are part of daily life in northern Nigeria, the result of a terror campaign by the Islamist group Boko Haram. Fears are growing that Nigeria’s government may not know how to counter it, and may be making things worse. More

AppleAndroid