News / Economy

IMF Sees Continued Growth for China, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Asia Pacific Director Anoop Singh, October 2009. (File)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Asia Pacific Director Anoop Singh, October 2009. (File)
The Eurozone crisis continues to weigh heavily on the global economy. But there are relative bright spots, such as China and sub-Saharan Africa, as reported at the annual joint meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Tokyo.

The IMF predicts China's growth will return to above eight percent next year.

The IMF's Asia-Pacific region director, Anoop Singh, acknowledges there are concerns China's real estate bubble could burst and water down such growth.

"Obviously that is a downside risk. But our sense is that is a remote possibility. China is not having a hard landing," said Singh.

The troubles in single-currency Europe are hurting demand for exports from China and India, as well as other countries in the Asia region.

Overall, growth in Asia is expected to be 5.9 percent next year, down from an earlier IMF forecast of 6.6 percent. But that is still high enough for Asia's economy to remain the world's fastest growing.

Another region, known more for its poverty than robust economic growth, is also enjoying a brighter outlook. It is sub-Saharan Africa, where the IMF reports the near-term outlook  “remains broadly positive” with growth projected above five percent over the next year.

It would be at least one percent higher if not for the shock from the Eurozone, says the director of the IMF's Africa department, Antoinette Monsio Sayeh.

“International commodity prices have remained relatively strong to date providing, of course, support for natural resource exporters in the region," she said. "And, secondly, domestic demand has provided solid support to growth, helped by both public and private investments. And private investments have been linked to the natural resource production in the region which has been expanding in a number of countries."

But Sayeh warns rising food prices pose a serious threat in some countries, such as Malawi, Zimbabwe and Lesotho.

Nigerian development economist Edith Jibunoh, a director at the advocacy group One (co-founded by the rock star Bono), says sub-Saharan Africa's growth is not inclusive and a lot of people are getting left behind.

"So when you disaggregate the numbers you start to see some very disheartening situations," she said. "Infrastructure deficits on the continent are still humongous. There's not even a third of the amount of money that needs to be invested in infrastructure getting spent on an annual basis."

That gap every year, Jibunoh says, totals $40 billion.

The IMF, meanwhile, is suggesting African policy makers reduce national budgets, especially household subsidies for fuel and electricity, and use that money to help sustain growth amid the international economic slowdown.

Benno Ndulu, governor of the Bank of Tanzania,  says the 45-nation region can buffer itself from a recession caused by the second-wave of the Euro shock by building inter-regional trade.

Ndulu also is floating another idea he acknowledges is controversial.

“Let's still look at the possibility of reserve pooling options to exploit the differences in the exposure to risks across our countries," said Ndulu. "Not all of us suffer the same type of risks. Not all commodities suffer price declines at the same time. And we should  be able, I think, to pool risks. It takes probably very strong political decisions to get to that stage."

The region's largest nation, South Africa, which is more integrated with the global economy than its neighbors, is forecast to experience growth of just 1.6 percent next year. The nation is struggling with labor unrest and high unemployment.

Steve Herman

A veteran journalist, Steven L Herman is the Voice of America Asia correspondent.

You May Like

Video VOA Reporter Tours Devastated Peshawar School

Islamist militants wearing military uniforms and strapped with explosives attacked a military run school Tuesday in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar. At least 141 people were killed in the horrific attack, most of them young students. More

Video Sudan School Becomes Target of Aerial Attacks

Dropout rate at an all-time high in South Kordofan state because many schools have been destroyed during 3-year civil war More

Tennessee Songbirds Fly Coop Long Before Tornadoes Arrive

Researchers say birds apparently alerted to danger by sounds at frequencies below range of human hearing More

This forum has been closed.
Comments
     
There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Sudan School Becomes Target of Aerial Attacksi
X
December 19, 2014 12:45 AM
The school dropout rate is at an all-time high in Sudan's South Kordofan state because many schools have been destroyed during the three-year civil war between the government and SPLA-N rebel forces. Adam Bailes visited Sudan's Nuba Mountains' region and reports many children are simply too scared to go to school
Video

Video Sudan School Becomes Target of Aerial Attacks

The school dropout rate is at an all-time high in Sudan's South Kordofan state because many schools have been destroyed during the three-year civil war between the government and SPLA-N rebel forces. Adam Bailes visited Sudan's Nuba Mountains' region and reports many children are simply too scared to go to school
Video

Video VOA Reporter Tours Devastated Peshawar School

Islamist militants wearing military uniforms and strapped with explosives attacked a military run school Tuesday in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar. At least 141 people were killed in the horrific attack, most of them young students. VOA reporter Ayaz Gul visited the devastated school and attended the funeral of the principal who courageously tried to save her students from the deadly attack.
Video

Video Nigerians Fleeing Boko Haram Languish in Camp Near Capital

In its five-year effort to impose Islamic law in northeastern Nigeria, the Boko Haram extremist group has killed thousands of people and forced hundreds of thousands to flee. Some of those who ran for their lives now live in squalor on the edges of the capital, Abuja. Chris Stein reports for VOA.
Video

Video Putin Says Russian Economy Will Emerge Stronger

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his country's sinking economy will not only recover but also become stronger, despite falling oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports.
Video

Video Detained Turkish Journalists Follow Teachings of US-Based Preacher

The Turkish government’s jailing of critical journalists has sparked international condemnation and is being seen as an effort to undermine the followers of an ailing Turkish preacher based in the United States. VOA religion reporter Jerome Socolovsky has more.
Video

Video ‘Anti-Islamization’ Marches Increase Tensions In Germany

Anti-immigrant rallies in Germany have been building in recent weeks, peaking Monday night in the city of Dresden where tens of thousands of people turned out to demonstrate against what they call the ‘Islamization’ of the West. Germany has offered asylum to more Syrian refugees than any other country, and this appears to have set off the protests. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
Video

Video Aceh Rebuilt Decade After Tsunami, But Scars Remain

On December 26, 2004 there was an earthquake in the Indian Ocean so powerful it caused the Earth’s axis to wobble a few centimeters. Onshore on the island of Sumatra, the resulting tsunami was devastating. A decade later, VOA Correspondent Steve Herman reports from Banda Aceh, Indonesia, where although there is little remaining evidence of the physical devastation, the psychological scars among survivors remain.
Video

Video Refugees Living in Kenya Long for Peace in the Home Countries

Kenya is host to numerous refugees seeking safe haven from conflict. Immigrants from Somalia face challenges in their new lives in Kenya. Ahead of International Migrants Day (December 18) Lenny Ruvaga has more for VOA News from the Kenyan capital.

All About America

AppleAndroid

World Currencies

EUR
USD
0.8140
JPY
USD
118.81
GBP
USD
0.6402
CAD
USD
1.1597
INR
USD
63.066

Rates may not be current.