News / USA

Elusive Deal With Iran Could Yield Foreign Policy Legacy for Obama

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with Iranian President Hassan in this official White House photo released Sept. 27, 2013.
U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with Iranian President Hassan in this official White House photo released Sept. 27, 2013.
Catherine Maddux

A 15-minute phone call made just under a year ago may be what historians say set the stage for a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran – if one is achieved by a November 24 deadline.

The call between Presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani marked the first direct contact between the United States and Iran since 1979.

The subject was Tehran’s disputed nuclear program, and it opened up the door to renewed talks between Iran and the so-called P5 + 1 countries — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, all members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany.

The resumption of talks last October led to an interim deal reached in January. The Joint Plan of Action (JPA) froze Iran's enrichment, in return granting Tehran some relief from Western-imposed economic sanctions.

The entire process is delicate as illustrated by the latest round of U.S. sanctions and Tehran's sharp response.  The penalties — which, according to media reports, are not new but meant to enforce existing sanctions —target businesses and inviduals the Obama administration says are involved in expanding in Iran's nuclear program.  Rouhani described them as a "crime against humanity," reflecting a comparatively tougher stance towards the United States. 

Still, the negotiations have raised the possibility of a historic agreement with Iran. Observers say that would provide a legacy moment for the president, whose approval ratings on foreign policy are dismally low.

From ‘rogue states’ to ‘outliers’

While the opening with Iran didn’t come until Obama’s second term in office, a shift in strategy toward Tehran began shortly after he was sworn in, said Robert Litwak, author of "Iran's Nuclear Chess: Calculating America's Moves.”

The president’s first administration “jettisoned the term 'rogue state,'” instead referring to countries such as Iran and North Korea as “outliers,” said Litwak, who directs security studies at Washington’s Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "And that really was the heart of the reset: reframing the challenge posed, in this case, particularly by Iran, not in terms of some unilateral American concept of rogue state, but rather in terms of conduct that violates established international norms."

The Obama reset was informed in part by a serious misstep by former President George W. Bush, said Peter Galbraith, a former ambassador to Croatia who also held several senior positions at the United Nations.

"Let's be clear with what happened with the Bush administration in Iran," said Galbraith, a senior diplomatic fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington. "In April of 2003, the Iranians made an offer to give up on their nuclear program in its entirety. And the Bush administration's response was 'we don't negotiate with evil.' "

Galbraith said that refusal gave the Iranian government eight years to perfect its uranium enrichment, allowing it to make what he described as "great strides" toward nuclear weapons capability.

But by the time the president began his first term, the option of diplomacy was already on the table, said Robert Einhorn, who participated in the P5 + 1 talks and served as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special adviser for non-proliferation and arms control.

"The Bush administration approach had evolved considerably," with representatives "prepared to take part in discussions with the Iranians in the P5 + 1 process," said Einhorn, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

A key part of the shift was allowing Iran to enrich uranium, a decision that critics say is a grave mistake.

FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.
x
FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.
FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.

"Obama was prepared to participate in the P5 + 1 talks without making enrichment an issue,” Einhorn said. “He was willing to approach diplomacy in a more creative way.”  

With Rouhani’s June 2013 election, Obama could reach out to a decidedly less hostile and more moderate leader than former Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Enrichment saga

Iran is a signatory of the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  As such, it argues it retains the right to enrich low-level uranium for nuclear power plants.
 
But the United States and a long list of other countries suspect Tehran’s civil nuclear program is a cover for its real endgame: to acquire the capability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran’s leaders have repeatedly denied the charge.

"The Iranians have mastered the nuclear fuel cycle," putting the United States in a negotiating bind, Litwak said. "Those centrifuges that spin to create low-enriched uranium for reactors can keep spinning to generate highly rich uranium that could be used in a weapon."

So the focus for the Obama administration has been on bounding, or limiting, Iran’s nuclear program and allowing some enrichment.
 
That negotiating position has critics – including Hillary Clinton, Obama’s former secretary of state.

During an interview with The Atlantic, widely scrutinized after publication, Clinton made it clear she supported a far harder line with Iranians in the current negotiations.

"I’ve always been in the camp that held that they did not have a right to enrichment," she was quoted as saying. "Contrary to their claim, there is no such thing as a right to enrich. This is absolutely unfounded. There is no such right."

Clinton went on to tell The Atlantic that no enrichment is "not an unrealistic position. I think it’s important that [the P5 + 1 negotiators] stake out that position."

FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.
x
FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.
FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.

Others, like Galbraith, argue that approach is a nonstarter. "Of course, there should be no enrichment," he said. "But the question is, how do you get there?"

Galbraith points out that though sanctions have imposed real economic hardships on Iranians, they haven’t led Iran’s government or its ultimate power holder, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to abandon enrichment. 

A military option is not realistic, in Galbraith’s view.

"If you produce a deal that allows for some enrichment, that also allows for clear inspection to demonstrate that Iran is not breaking out and going ahead and making a nuclear weapon, I think that is a significant achievement," he said. "Is it perfect? Absolutely not."

Breaking out

There remains a major roadblock that could easily derail reaching an agreement by the November deadline, which was extended from July.

The Obama administration is acutely aware that Iran may try to stall for time to build a bomb while appearing to scale back its enrichment capacity, according to Einhorn.

He and other non-proliferation experts say the amount of time Iran would need to "break out" a nuclear weapon – that is, to switch gears from energy production – is a crucial concern.

"Iran says it wants a fairly large enrichment capacity to supply its Russian-built reactor at Bushehr" nuclear power plant by 2021, Einhorn said. "The United States worries that that level of capacity would give Iran a rapid breakout."

So, negotiators are making the case that Iran's enrichment capacity must be limited for a long time.

The ideal would be making sure the window for a possible breakout for Iran doesn’t exist, Litwak said. Or, failing that, making sure there is enough time to do something about it.

"You want to have confidence that the amount of time Iran would need to generate highly enriched uranium for a bomb would [also] … provide ample time for the U.S. to generate a collective response," he said.  "The rule of thumb is that we need at least one year."
 
Identity crisis

The very tough and challenging details aside, experts say the talks reveal an existential struggle inside Iran – a kind of identity crisis.

"The real question is whether Iran wants to be counted as a non-nuclear power," said Daniel Serwer, a senior professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

"Why would it want to do that? Well, because a nuclear Iran is a very dangerous place where there is a lot risk to Iranians. A non-nuclear Iran is a much safer place for Iran," Serwer said. "… But ultimately, that [comes] down to what the Iranians think."

From Litwak's point of view, the talks represent a proxy for Iran’s continued and, up to now, unresolved debate over whether it wants to be a revolutionary state or merely an ordinary country.

"It is an identity crisis and it's not one that they have been able to resolve now 35 years after the revolution," Litwak said.

Furthermore, Litwak points out, it’s unclear whether supreme leader Khamenei – pressured by sanctions on Iranian society and the resulting economic dislocations – will agree to nuclear limitations that ensure it’s "not a military program masquerading as a civil program."

Most policy experts said the odds for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran are 50-50. Einhorn, who recently wrote an open letter to Iranian negotiators, said the fast-approaching deadline  simply does not allow enough time to sort out all the remaining disputes.
 
"I think a deal is going to be hard to reach because the gaps are so large," he said. "It will be an uphill effort."

You May Like

Unpaid Kurdish Fighters Sign of Economic Woes

Sharp cuts in Kurdistan's budget by Baghdad, falling oil revenue, coping with refugees, inflated public sector have hit regional economy hard More

Koreas Exchange List of Envoys for Family Reunion Talks

Officials will discuss date, venue and number of participants for reunion; Seoul hopes to hold event late this month More

China Targets 197 in Online Speech Crackdown

Nearly 200 punished for 'spreading rumors' online in ongoing crackdown on free speech More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Lawrence Bush from: Houston, USA
August 31, 2014 2:30 PM
The elusive n-deal with the Iranian govt. may give some additional pluses to the Obama administration but the steady move by the P 5 plus Germany have moved a long, strenuous path. Albeit president Bush had rebuffed in 2003 not to negotiate with a component of the evil axis(Iran) over the n-issue;still he had given the positive signal as our govt. to sit along with the P4 plus Germany.......Always; after a phase of scorching heats, the rains to come down for the cooling purpose. Pariter, the phase of president Bush and president Ahemedinejad had been a scorching one over the Iranian n-issue; but the moderate phase started with our president Obama and the Iranian president Rouhani. Two constructive minded presidents have been acting harmonically ....... so, if a final deal can be reached over the Iranian n-issue officially, verifiably labelling it as a truly civil n-program, it's unquestionably a great achievement that's contributed by the hon'ble heads of the state, foreign ministers and the top diplomats of P5 plus Germany along with Iran.......... In the cross-roads of the world history, when'er surges a strategic crisis, cauchemarish significance even,....... many efforts do remain to solving it.......but that persists on until the the right time comes up to be resolved. The malficience of the Iranian n-program undeclarably had been eyeing Israel as the first degree rivalry. There's no slightest polemics in it. And, if that would've been possible for Iran, that would've added another n-equation of rivalry in this world to the existing ones. So, as the Iranian govt. tells it's their civil n-program, the efforts of the P5( Five permanent members of the UNSC) plus Germany
have been to verifiably, officially cap the n-weapon part only. If historic n-agreement finalizes between the P5 plus Germany in one side and Iran on the other; it's really a great politico-diplomatic successful exercise. And, as per the treaty to be signed with Iran in next November, it must be technologically verifiable as per a civil n-program as the Iranian side does say.

by: RobertMorris from: US
August 31, 2014 10:06 AM
It is hard to believe that President Obama's appeasement efforts will work. Selling out the Kurds to force them under the Ayatollah dominated Baghdad government hasn't worked and neither will lifting the current relatively tame embargo work - except to gather a meaningless promise without full inspections and some photo opportunities.

It is probably significant that the Chamberlain Society just awarded Secretary of State Kerry its highest rating - five umbrellas.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Calais School Offers Another Face of Europe’s Migrant Crisisi
X
Lisa Bryant
September 02, 2015 6:19 PM
Europe is facing mounting criticism over how it’s handling its biggest migration crisis since World War II. But not all Europeans believe building walls or passing repressive policies are the answer. A school for migrants in the French port city of Calais, is opening doors and building bonds across nationalities. VOA's Lisa Bryant reports.
Video

Video Calais School Offers Another Face of Europe’s Migrant Crisis

Europe is facing mounting criticism over how it’s handling its biggest migration crisis since World War II. But not all Europeans believe building walls or passing repressive policies are the answer. A school for migrants in the French port city of Calais, is opening doors and building bonds across nationalities. VOA's Lisa Bryant reports.
Video

Video Russia-Japan Relations Cool as Putin Visits China for WWII Anniversary

Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Beijing for commemorations of the 70th anniversary of China's WWII victory over Japan. Putin is expected to visit Japan later this year, but tensions between Tokyo and Moscow over islands disputed since the war, and sanctions over Ukraine, could pour cold water on the plan. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports.
Video

Video Kurdish Fighters on IS Frontline Ready for Offensive

Finger on the trigger, the Kurdish Peshmerga soldier stared across the dust at a village taken over by Islamic State extremists. The Kurdistan’s Khazir frontline, just 45 minutes from the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul. And at this point, the militants were less than two kilometers away. VOA's Sharon Behn reports.
Video

Video Yemen ‘on Brink of Disaster’ as Medical Shortages Soar

Aid agencies warn Yemen is on the brink of humanitarian disaster – with up to half a million children facing severe malnutrition, and hospitals running out of basic medicines. There are fears Yemen's civil war could escalate as the coalition led by Saudi Arabia tries to drive back Houthi rebels, who seized control of much of the country earlier this year. Henry Ridgwell reports.
Video

Video Apps Helping Kenyan Businesses Stay Ahead of Counterfeiters

Counterfeit goods in Kenya cost the government as much as $1 billion each year in lost tax revenues. The fake goods also hurt entrepreneurs who find it hard to carve out a niche in the market and retain customers. But as Lenny Ruvaga reports from Nairobi, information technology is being used to try to beat the problem.
Video

Video Nobel Prize Winner Malala Talks to VOA

Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai met with VOA's Deewa service in Washington Sunday to talk about women’s rights and unveil a trailer for her new documentary. VOA's Katherine Gypson has more.
Video

Video War, Drought Threaten Iraq's Marshlands

Iraq's southern wetlands are in crisis. These areas are the spawning ground for Gulf fisheries, a resting place for migrating wildfowl, and source of livelihood for fishermen and herders. Faith Lapidus has more.
Video

Video Colombians Flee Venezuela as Border Crisis Escalates

Hundreds of Colombians have fled Venezuela since last week, amid an escalating border crisis between the two countries. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered the closure of a key border crossing after smugglers injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian. The president also ordered the deportation of Colombians who are in Venezuela illegally. Zlatica Hoke reports.
Video

Video Rebuilding New Orleans' Music Scene

Ten years after Hurricane Katrina inundated New Orleans, threatening to wash away its vibrant musical heritage along with its neighborhoods, the beat goes on. As Bronwyn Benito and Faith Lapidus report, a Musicians' Village is preserving the city's unique sound.
Video

Video In Russia, Auto Industry in Tailspin

Industry insiders say country relies too heavily on imports as inflation cuts too many consumers out of the market. Daniel Schearf has more from Moscow.
Video

Video Scientist Calls Use of Fetal Tissue in Medical Research Essential

An anti-abortion group responsible for secret recordings of workers at a women's health care organization claims the workers shown are offering baby parts for sale, a charge the organization strongly denies. While the selling of fetal tissue is against the law in the United States, abortion and the use of donated fetal tissue for medical research are both legal. VOA’s Julie Taboh reports.
Video

Video Next to Iran, Climate at Forefront of Obama Agenda

President Barack Obama this week announced new initiatives aimed at making it easier for Americans to access renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Obama is not slowing down when it comes to pushing through climate change measures, an issue he says is the greatest threat to the country’s national security. VOA correspondent Aru Pande has more from the White House.
Video

Video Arctic Draws International Competition for Oil

A new geopolitical “Great Game” is underway in earth’s northernmost region, the Arctic, where Russia has claimed a large area for resource development and President Barack Obama recently approved Shell Oil Company’s test-drilling project in an area under U.S. control. Greg Flakus reports.
Video

Video Philippine Maritime Police: Chinese Fishermen a Threat to Country’s Security

China and the Philippines both claim maritime rights in the South China Sea.  That includes the right to fish in those waters. Jason Strother reports on how the Philippines is catching Chinese nationals it says are illegal poachers. He has the story from Palawan province.
Video

Video China's Spratly Island Building Said to Light Up the Night 'Like A City'

Southeast Asian countries claim China has illegally seized territory in the Spratly islands. It is especially a concern for a Philippine mayor who says Beijing is occupying parts of his municipality. Jason Strother reports from the capital of Palawan province, Puerto Princesa.

VOA Blogs