News / USA

Elusive Deal With Iran Could Yield Foreign Policy Legacy for Obama

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with Iranian President Hassan in this official White House photo released Sept. 27, 2013.
U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with Iranian President Hassan in this official White House photo released Sept. 27, 2013.
Catherine Maddux

A 15-minute phone call made just under a year ago may be what historians say set the stage for a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran – if one is achieved by a November 24 deadline.

The call between Presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani marked the first direct contact between the United States and Iran since 1979.

The subject was Tehran’s disputed nuclear program, and it opened up the door to renewed talks between Iran and the so-called P5 + 1 countries — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, all members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany.

The resumption of talks last October led to an interim deal reached in January. The Joint Plan of Action (JPA) froze Iran's enrichment, in return granting Tehran some relief from Western-imposed economic sanctions.

The entire process is delicate as illustrated by the latest round of U.S. sanctions and Tehran's sharp response.  The penalties — which, according to media reports, are not new but meant to enforce existing sanctions —target businesses and inviduals the Obama administration says are involved in expanding in Iran's nuclear program.  Rouhani described them as a "crime against humanity," reflecting a comparatively tougher stance towards the United States. 

Still, the negotiations have raised the possibility of a historic agreement with Iran. Observers say that would provide a legacy moment for the president, whose approval ratings on foreign policy are dismally low.

From ‘rogue states’ to ‘outliers’

While the opening with Iran didn’t come until Obama’s second term in office, a shift in strategy toward Tehran began shortly after he was sworn in, said Robert Litwak, author of "Iran's Nuclear Chess: Calculating America's Moves.”

The president’s first administration “jettisoned the term 'rogue state,'” instead referring to countries such as Iran and North Korea as “outliers,” said Litwak, who directs security studies at Washington’s Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "And that really was the heart of the reset: reframing the challenge posed, in this case, particularly by Iran, not in terms of some unilateral American concept of rogue state, but rather in terms of conduct that violates established international norms."

The Obama reset was informed in part by a serious misstep by former President George W. Bush, said Peter Galbraith, a former ambassador to Croatia who also held several senior positions at the United Nations.

"Let's be clear with what happened with the Bush administration in Iran," said Galbraith, a senior diplomatic fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington. "In April of 2003, the Iranians made an offer to give up on their nuclear program in its entirety. And the Bush administration's response was 'we don't negotiate with evil.' "

Galbraith said that refusal gave the Iranian government eight years to perfect its uranium enrichment, allowing it to make what he described as "great strides" toward nuclear weapons capability.

But by the time the president began his first term, the option of diplomacy was already on the table, said Robert Einhorn, who participated in the P5 + 1 talks and served as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special adviser for non-proliferation and arms control.

"The Bush administration approach had evolved considerably," with representatives "prepared to take part in discussions with the Iranians in the P5 + 1 process," said Einhorn, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

A key part of the shift was allowing Iran to enrich uranium, a decision that critics say is a grave mistake.

FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.
FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.
FILE - Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is decidedly less hostile to the United States than his predecessor.

"Obama was prepared to participate in the P5 + 1 talks without making enrichment an issue,” Einhorn said. “He was willing to approach diplomacy in a more creative way.”  

With Rouhani’s June 2013 election, Obama could reach out to a decidedly less hostile and more moderate leader than former Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Enrichment saga

Iran is a signatory of the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  As such, it argues it retains the right to enrich low-level uranium for nuclear power plants.
But the United States and a long list of other countries suspect Tehran’s civil nuclear program is a cover for its real endgame: to acquire the capability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran’s leaders have repeatedly denied the charge.

"The Iranians have mastered the nuclear fuel cycle," putting the United States in a negotiating bind, Litwak said. "Those centrifuges that spin to create low-enriched uranium for reactors can keep spinning to generate highly rich uranium that could be used in a weapon."

So the focus for the Obama administration has been on bounding, or limiting, Iran’s nuclear program and allowing some enrichment.
That negotiating position has critics – including Hillary Clinton, Obama’s former secretary of state.

During an interview with The Atlantic, widely scrutinized after publication, Clinton made it clear she supported a far harder line with Iranians in the current negotiations.

"I’ve always been in the camp that held that they did not have a right to enrichment," she was quoted as saying. "Contrary to their claim, there is no such thing as a right to enrich. This is absolutely unfounded. There is no such right."

Clinton went on to tell The Atlantic that no enrichment is "not an unrealistic position. I think it’s important that [the P5 + 1 negotiators] stake out that position."

FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.
FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.
FILE - A security officer guards Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, April 7, 2007.

Others, like Galbraith, argue that approach is a nonstarter. "Of course, there should be no enrichment," he said. "But the question is, how do you get there?"

Galbraith points out that though sanctions have imposed real economic hardships on Iranians, they haven’t led Iran’s government or its ultimate power holder, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to abandon enrichment. 

A military option is not realistic, in Galbraith’s view.

"If you produce a deal that allows for some enrichment, that also allows for clear inspection to demonstrate that Iran is not breaking out and going ahead and making a nuclear weapon, I think that is a significant achievement," he said. "Is it perfect? Absolutely not."

Breaking out

There remains a major roadblock that could easily derail reaching an agreement by the November deadline, which was extended from July.

The Obama administration is acutely aware that Iran may try to stall for time to build a bomb while appearing to scale back its enrichment capacity, according to Einhorn.

He and other non-proliferation experts say the amount of time Iran would need to "break out" a nuclear weapon – that is, to switch gears from energy production – is a crucial concern.

"Iran says it wants a fairly large enrichment capacity to supply its Russian-built reactor at Bushehr" nuclear power plant by 2021, Einhorn said. "The United States worries that that level of capacity would give Iran a rapid breakout."

So, negotiators are making the case that Iran's enrichment capacity must be limited for a long time.

The ideal would be making sure the window for a possible breakout for Iran doesn’t exist, Litwak said. Or, failing that, making sure there is enough time to do something about it.

"You want to have confidence that the amount of time Iran would need to generate highly enriched uranium for a bomb would [also] … provide ample time for the U.S. to generate a collective response," he said.  "The rule of thumb is that we need at least one year."
Identity crisis

The very tough and challenging details aside, experts say the talks reveal an existential struggle inside Iran – a kind of identity crisis.

"The real question is whether Iran wants to be counted as a non-nuclear power," said Daniel Serwer, a senior professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

"Why would it want to do that? Well, because a nuclear Iran is a very dangerous place where there is a lot risk to Iranians. A non-nuclear Iran is a much safer place for Iran," Serwer said. "… But ultimately, that [comes] down to what the Iranians think."

From Litwak's point of view, the talks represent a proxy for Iran’s continued and, up to now, unresolved debate over whether it wants to be a revolutionary state or merely an ordinary country.

"It is an identity crisis and it's not one that they have been able to resolve now 35 years after the revolution," Litwak said.

Furthermore, Litwak points out, it’s unclear whether supreme leader Khamenei – pressured by sanctions on Iranian society and the resulting economic dislocations – will agree to nuclear limitations that ensure it’s "not a military program masquerading as a civil program."

Most policy experts said the odds for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran are 50-50. Einhorn, who recently wrote an open letter to Iranian negotiators, said the fast-approaching deadline  simply does not allow enough time to sort out all the remaining disputes.
"I think a deal is going to be hard to reach because the gaps are so large," he said. "It will be an uphill effort."

You May Like

Guatemala Mudslide Death Toll Rises to 86

Death toll is expected to continue to rise as emergency crews dig through tons of earth for an estimated 350 people still missing More

Debris Found in Search for Missing Ship

Objects located Sunday have not yet been confirmed to be from the 240 meter container ship, El Faro, which disappeared in the eye of Hurricane Joaquin, according to US Coast Guard More

Survivor: Gunman Spared 'Lucky One' to Give Police Message

Law enforcement official says a manifesto of several pages was recovered; contents not revealed More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
by: Lawrence Bush from: Houston, USA
August 31, 2014 2:30 PM
The elusive n-deal with the Iranian govt. may give some additional pluses to the Obama administration but the steady move by the P 5 plus Germany have moved a long, strenuous path. Albeit president Bush had rebuffed in 2003 not to negotiate with a component of the evil axis(Iran) over the n-issue;still he had given the positive signal as our govt. to sit along with the P4 plus Germany.......Always; after a phase of scorching heats, the rains to come down for the cooling purpose. Pariter, the phase of president Bush and president Ahemedinejad had been a scorching one over the Iranian n-issue; but the moderate phase started with our president Obama and the Iranian president Rouhani. Two constructive minded presidents have been acting harmonically ....... so, if a final deal can be reached over the Iranian n-issue officially, verifiably labelling it as a truly civil n-program, it's unquestionably a great achievement that's contributed by the hon'ble heads of the state, foreign ministers and the top diplomats of P5 plus Germany along with Iran.......... In the cross-roads of the world history, when'er surges a strategic crisis, cauchemarish significance even,....... many efforts do remain to solving it.......but that persists on until the the right time comes up to be resolved. The malficience of the Iranian n-program undeclarably had been eyeing Israel as the first degree rivalry. There's no slightest polemics in it. And, if that would've been possible for Iran, that would've added another n-equation of rivalry in this world to the existing ones. So, as the Iranian govt. tells it's their civil n-program, the efforts of the P5( Five permanent members of the UNSC) plus Germany
have been to verifiably, officially cap the n-weapon part only. If historic n-agreement finalizes between the P5 plus Germany in one side and Iran on the other; it's really a great politico-diplomatic successful exercise. And, as per the treaty to be signed with Iran in next November, it must be technologically verifiable as per a civil n-program as the Iranian side does say.

by: RobertMorris from: US
August 31, 2014 10:06 AM
It is hard to believe that President Obama's appeasement efforts will work. Selling out the Kurds to force them under the Ayatollah dominated Baghdad government hasn't worked and neither will lifting the current relatively tame embargo work - except to gather a meaningless promise without full inspections and some photo opportunities.

It is probably significant that the Chamberlain Society just awarded Secretary of State Kerry its highest rating - five umbrellas.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Russia’s Syria Involvement Raising Concerns in Europei
Luis Ramirez
October 02, 2015 4:45 PM
European nations are joining the United States in demanding that Russia stop targeting opposition groups other than the Islamic State militants as Russian warplanes continue to conduct raids in Syria. The demand came in a statement from Britain, France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States Friday. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports.

Video Russia’s Syria Involvement Raising Concerns in Europe

European nations are joining the United States in demanding that Russia stop targeting opposition groups other than the Islamic State militants as Russian warplanes continue to conduct raids in Syria. The demand came in a statement from Britain, France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States Friday. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports.

Video First Self-Driving Truck Debuts on European Highways

The first automated semi-trailer truck started its maiden voyage Friday, Oct. 2, on a European highway. The Daimler truck called 'Actros' is the first potentially mass-produced truck whose driver will be required only to monitor the situation, similar to the role of an airline captain while the plane is in autopilot mode. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Video Nano-tech Filter Cleans Dirty Water

Access to clean water is a problem for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Now, a scientist and chemical engineer in Tanzania (in East Africa) is working to change that by creating an innovative water filter that makes dirty water safe. VOA’s Deborah Block has the story.

Video Demand Rising for Organic Produce in Cambodia

In Cambodia, where rice has long been the main cash crop, farmers are being encouraged to turn to vegetables to satisfy the growing demand for locally produced organic farm products. Daniel de Carteret has more from Phnom Penh.

Video Migrant Influx Costs Europe, But Economy Could Benefit

The influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants is testing Europe’s ability to respond – especially in the poorer Balkan states. But some analysts argue that Europe will benefit by welcoming the huge numbers of young people – many of them well educated and willing to work. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.

Video Botanists Grow Furniture, with Pruning Shears

For something a bit out of the ordinary to furnish your home, why not consider wooden chairs, crafted by nature, with a little help from some British botanists with an eye for design. VOA’s Jessica Berman reports.

Video New Fabric Helps Fight Dust-Related Allergies

Many people around the world suffer from dust-related allergies, caused mainly by tiny mites that live in bed linen. Polish scientists report they have successfully tested a fabric that is impenetrable to the microscopic creatures. VOA’s George Putic has more.

Video Burkina Faso's Economy Deeply Affected by Political Turmoil

Political turmoil in Burkina Faso over the past year has taken a toll on the economy. The transitional government is reporting nearly $70 million in losses in the ten days that followed a short-lived coup by members of the presidential guard earlier this month. The crisis shut businesses and workers went on strike. With elections on the horizon, Emilie Iob reports on what a return to political stability can do for the country's economic recovery.

Video Fleeing Violence, Some Syrians Find Refuge in Irbil

As Syrians continue to flee their country’s unrest to seek new lives in safer places, VOA Persian Service reporter Shepol Abbassi visited Irbil, where a number Syrians have taken refuge. During the religious holidy of Eid al-Adha, the city largely shut down, as temperatures soared. Amy Katz narrates his report.

Video Nigeria’s Wecyclers Work for Reusable Future in Lagos

The streets and lagoons of Africa's largest city - Lagos, Nigeria - are often clogged with trash, almost none of which gets recycled. One company is trying to change that. Chris Stein reports for VOA from Lagos.

Video Sketch Artist Helps Catch Criminals, Gives a Face to Deceased

Police often face the problem of trying to find a crime suspect based on general descriptions that could fit hundreds of people in the vicinity of the crime. In these cases, an artist can use information from witnesses to sketch a likeness that police can show the public via newspapers and television. But, as VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from Houston, such sketches can also help bring back faces of the dead.

Video Thailand Set to Build China-like Internet Firewall

Thai authorities are planning to tighten control over the Internet, creating a single international access point so they can better monitor content. VOA Correspondent Steve Herman reports from Bangkok on what is being called Thailand’s own "Great Firewall."

Video Croatian Town’s War History Evokes Empathy for Migrants

As thousands of Afghanistan, Iraqi and Syrian migrants pass through Croatia, locals are reminded of their own experiences with war and refugees in the 1990s. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from the town of Vukovar, where wartime scars still are visible today.

Video Long Drought Affecting California’s Sequoias

California is suffering under a historic four-year drought and scientists say even the state's famed sequoia trees are feeling the pain. The National Park Service has started detailed research to see how it can help the oldest living things on earth survive. VOA’s George Putic reports.

VOA Blogs