News / USA

    Poll Shows Tight Races Just Ahead of Iowa Caucuses

    Workers take down a U.S. flag following a campaign stop by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at the Family Fun Center in Adel, Iowa, Jan. 27, 2016.
    Workers take down a U.S. flag following a campaign stop by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at the Family Fun Center in Adel, Iowa, Jan. 27, 2016.

    With only two days remaining until Iowa voters hold the first nominating contest of the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, a closely watched poll is suggesting tight and largely unchanged Democratic and Republican races.  

    The Iowa Poll, conducted by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics and released late Saturday, showed Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hanging on to their narrow leads in the Hawkeye State.  

    Trump, the billionaire businessman, came in first with 28 percent, compared with 23 percent for his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Since early January, Trump has risen 6 percentage points in the poll.  

    In keeping with most other recent polls, Florida Senator Marco Rubio came in third in the GOP with 15 percent, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson came in fourth with 10 percent. All other candidates polled in the single digits.

    Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.

    On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Clinton led the way with 45 percent. Her main challenger, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, was next with 42 percent. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley secured the support of just 3 percent of likely Democratic voters.

    Influential poll

    The poll is closely watched by experts and is seen as one of the most accurate indicators of whom voters will choose on Monday in Iowa.

    The survey famously predicted that then-U.S. Senator Barack Obama would win Iowa in 2008. He eventually did, defeating Clinton and going on to win the presidency.

    However, unlike previous election cycles, the poll this time did not appear to suggest any last-minute surprises, instead revealing too-close-to-call races on both sides.

    Final sprint

    Candidates from both parties on Saturday made a final sprint in Iowa, holding campaign events across the rural Midwestern state.  

    Trump returned to Iowa, after having held rallies the previous day in New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s next nominating contest on February 9.

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to supporters as he arrives at a campaign rally at Clinton Middle School in Clinton, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to supporters as he arrives at a campaign rally at Clinton Middle School in Clinton, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.

    “If a lot of people come, Trump wins by a lot. If they don’t come, I don’t win. And if I don’t win, bad things happen,” he said.

    Sanders offered a similarly blunt assessment of his chances. At a campaign event in Manchester, in the next primary state, he called the primary battle a “tossup.”

    “We will win the caucus on Monday night if there is a large voter turnout. And we will lose the caucus Monday night if there is a low voter turnout,” Sanders said.  

    Snowstorm coming?

    Turnout could be affected by a major snowstorm that forecasters expect to hit Iowa starting late Monday, as the voters are caucusing. Forecasters say the storm could dump nearly 12 inches (30 centimeters) of snow on parts of the state, along with strong winds that could create blizzard-like conditions.

    If the bad weather hits, experts say, candidates with better-organized ground campaigns or with more passionate supporters stand a better chance.

    Clinton focuses on guns

    Former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords sits on stage as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.Former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords sits on stage as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    x
    Former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords sits on stage as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    Former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords sits on stage as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a rally at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.

    Clinton spent Saturday trying to protect her narrow and apparently shrinking lead over Sanders. At a rally in Ames, she appeared with former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords of Arizona, who was the victim of a gun attack in 2011 and is now a gun control advocate.  

    "How can we continue to ignore the toll that this is taking on our children and our country?" Clinton said. "When you go to caucus Monday night, please think of this."

    Clinton has repeatedly tried to appeal to Democratic voters by saying she will enact tougher gun restrictions than Sanders.  

    Cruz mailer criticized

    Meanwhile, the Cruz campaign is taking heat in Iowa over one of its campaign mailers, which seems to threaten recipients.  

    The mailer appears to be designed to look like an official document and includes the names of the recipients, as well as those of their neighbors.

    Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas speaks during a campaign event in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas speaks during a campaign event in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    x
    Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas speaks during a campaign event in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.
    Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas speaks during a campaign event in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 30, 2016.

    “You are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area," it reads. "Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors’ are public record. Their scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well. CAUCUS ON MONDAY TO IMPROVE YOUR SCORE and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well. A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday’s caucuses.”

    Iowa’s secretary of state, Paul Pate, issued a statement calling the flier “misleading” and a “false representation of an official act.”

    “There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting,” Pate said. “Any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong, and I believe it is not in keeping with the spirit of the Iowa caucuses.”  

    Polls earlier this month showed Cruz closing in on Trump. But he now appears to be struggling, especially after this week’s shaky debate performance in Des Moines.

    Iowa is seen as a particularly crucial state for Cruz. It has a large number of evangelical Christians, which make up a significant part of Cruz’s base of support.

    Trump appeals to evangelicals

    Eager to gain some of those votes, Trump on Saturday made a last-minute appeal to evangelical voters with a video posted on his Facebook page.

    “I really appreciate the support given to me by the evangelicals. They’ve been incredible. Every poll shows how well I’ve been doing with them,” said Trump, holding up a Bible given to him by his mother. “I will never let you down.”

    You May Like

    Video Democrats Clinton, Kaine Offer 'Very Different Vision' Than Trump

    In a jab at Trump, Clinton says her team wants to 'build bridges, not walls'; Obama Hails Kaine's record; Trump calls Kaine a 'job-killer'

    Turkey Wants Pakistan to Close Down institutions, Businesses Linked to Gulen

    Thousands of Pakistani students are enrolled in Gulen's commercial network of around two dozen institutions operating in Pakistan for over two decades

    AU Passport A Work in Progress

    Who will get the passport and what the benefits are still need to be worked out

    This forum has been closed.
    Comment Sorting
    Comments
         
    by: MarkPl from: USA
    January 31, 2016 4:39 AM
    Hillary Clinton is a warmonger.

    Hillary Clinton lost her legitimacy when she said she supports a no-fly zone in Syria. Economically costly, technically almost impossible, politically wrong for creating a safe heaven for AQ Groups and siding with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey and their killer proxies and militarily useless for the civil war in Syria.

    An indication that she's in the pocket of the Turks and is willing to spend national resources to serve other countries' wrongful wishes.

    For Bernie Sanders, this can be a HUGE differentiating point:

    - Bernie Sanders will save resources, be it our sons and daughters and money and he will bring peace. Sanders has already proven that he's anti-war.

    - Clinton will wage wars for the benefit of other countries, and there's proof she's willing to do it. (e.g. her decision on a no-fly zone in Syria) or her vote to invade Iraq in 2003.

    The American society needs peace not another war by Saudi/Turkey puppets like Clinton.

    We need Bernie Sanders to win.

    by: Josh
    January 31, 2016 1:07 AM
    We have enough of Bushes and Clintons...
    But whoever win Fed will rob Social Security and Medicare, NSA will survey all of us, police will kill black and white, military will bomb the world all around.

    by: Michele Martinez Hopkins
    January 30, 2016 11:58 PM
    I'm a Democrat who is changing my party to Republican so I can vote for Donald Trump for President.

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    In State of Emergency, Turkey’s Erdogan Focuses on Spiritual Movementi
    X
    July 22, 2016 11:49 AM
    The state of emergency that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared is giving him even more power to expand a purge that has seen an estimated 60,000 people either arrested or suspended from their jobs. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports from Istanbul.
    Video

    Video In State of Emergency, Turkey’s Erdogan Focuses on Spiritual Movement

    The state of emergency that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared is giving him even more power to expand a purge that has seen an estimated 60,000 people either arrested or suspended from their jobs. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports from Istanbul.
    Video

    Video Scientists in Poland Race to Save Honeybees

    Honeybees are in danger worldwide. Causes of what's known as colony collapse disorder range from pesticides and loss of habitat to infections. But scientists in Poland say they are on track to finding a cure for one of the diseases. VOA’s George Putic reports.
    Video

    Video Wall Already Runs Along Parts of US-Mexico Border

    The Republican Party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, gained the support of many voters by saying he would build a wall to keep undocumented immigrants and drugs from coming across the border from Mexico. Critics have called his idea impractical and offensive to Mexico, while supporters say such a bold approach is needed to control the border. VOA’s Greg Flakus has more from the border town of Nogales, Arizona.
    Video

    Video New HIV Tests Emphasize Rapid Results

    As the global fight against AIDS intensifies, activists have placed increasing importance on getting people to know their HIV status. Some companies are developing new HIV testing methods designed to be quick, easy and accurate. Thuso Khumalo looks at the latest methods, presented at the International AIDS conference in Durban, South Africa.
    Video

    Video African Youth with HIV Urge More Support

    HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, is the top killer of teens in sub-Saharan Africa. But many youths say their experience with the virus is unique and needs to be addressed differently than the adult epidemic. VOA South African Correspondent Anita Powell reports.
    Video

    Video Poor Residents in Cleveland Not Feeling High Hopes of Republican Convention

    With the Republican Party's National Convention underway in Cleveland, Ohio, delegates and visitors are gathered in the host city's downtown - waiting to hear from the party's presidential candidate, Donald Trump. But a few kilometers from the convention's venue, Cleveland's poorest residents are not convinced Trump or his policies will make a difference in their lives. VOA's Ramon Taylor spoke with some of these residents as well as some of the Republican delegates and filed this report.
    Video

    Video Pop-Up Art Comes to Your Living Room, Backyard and Elsewhere

    Around the world, independent artists and musicians wrestle with a common problem: where to exhibit or perform? Traditional spaces such as museums and galleries are reserved for bigger names, and renting a space is not feasible for many. Enter ArtsUp, which connects artists with venue owners. Whether it’s a living room, restaurant, office or even a boat, pop-up events are bringing music and art to unexpected places. Tina Trinh has more.
    Video

    Video With Yosemite as Backdrop, Obama Praises National Parks

    Last month, President Barack Obama and his family visited some of the most beautiful national parks in the U.S. Using the majestic backdrop of a towering waterfall in California's Yosemite National Park, Obama praised the national park system which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year. He talked about the importance of America’s “national treasures” and the need to protect them from climate change and other threats. VOA’s Julie Taboh reports.
    Video

    Video Counter-Islamic State Coalition Plots Next Steps

    As momentum shifts against Islamic State in Iraq, discussions are taking place about the next steps for driving the terrorist group from its final strongholds. Secretary of State John Kerry is hosting a counter-IS meeting at the State Department, a day after defense ministers from more than 30 countries reviewed and agreed upon a course of action. VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb reports.
    Video

    Video Russia's Participation at Brazil Olympic Games Still In Question

    The International Olympic Committee has delayed a decision on whether to ban all Russian teams from competing in next month's Olympic Games in Brazil over allegations of an elaborate doping scheme. The World Anti-Doping Agency recently released an independent report alleging widespread doping by Russian athletes at the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. So far, only Russian track and field athletes have been barred from the Summer Games in Brazil. VOA's Zlatica Hoke has more.
    Video

    Video Scotland’s Booming Whisky Industry Fears Brexit Hangover

    After Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, Scotland’s government wants to break away from the United Kingdom – fearing the nation’s exports are at risk. Among the biggest of these is whisky. Henry Ridgwell reports on a time of turmoil for those involved in the ancient art of distilling Scotland’s most famous product.
    Video

    Video Millennials Could Determine Who Wins Race to White House

    With only four months to go until Americans elect a new president, one group of voters is getting a lot more attention these days: those ages 18 to 35, a generation known as millennials. It’s a demographic that some analysts say could have the power to decide the 2016 election. But a lot depends on whether they actually turn out to vote. VOA’s Alexa Lamanna reports.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora