News / Africa

Poll Shows Kenyan PM Holds Small Lead in Presidential Race

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga addresses the foreign journalists in Nairobi, Kenya, June 12, 2012.
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga addresses the foreign journalists in Nairobi, Kenya, June 12, 2012.
Gabe Joselow
A new poll shows Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga holding a narrow lead over his rivals in the country’s presidential race.  With five  months to go until the election, it is still anybody’s race.

The newest survey from the U.S.-based polling agency Gallup shows 28.6 percent of Kenyans over the age of 18 support Prime Minister Odinga in his bid for the presidency.  His closest rival, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has 21.5 percent support.

Gallup Regional Research Director Bob Tortora, speaking in Nairobi Friday, said among more likely voters, the race is even tighter.

“But what happens if you now restrict it to those Kenyans who are telling us that they are registered to vote now?  Then the picture changes a little bit and the prime minister and the deputy prime minister are statistically tied,” said Tortora.

In third place is member of parliament William Ruto, who has the support of 14 percent of eligible and registered voters.

Both Ruto and Kenyatta are facing trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of instigating the violence that followed the disputed presidential election in 2007, in which over one thousand people were killed.

The poll found that 69 percent of Kenyans who are aware of the ICC approve of using the court to investigate the post-election violence, though there was no mention of what impact, if any, that perception will have on the election.

The poll also found that one out of every four Kenyans believes there will be a repeat of violence after next year’s vote.

Looking beyond politics, Gallup also surveyed Kenyans on something called Life Evaluation, asking participants to rank their well-being from a scale of one to ten, with ten being what they imagine to be the best possible life.

The survey showed Kenyans ranked their well-being at 4.3, up from 4.0 in 2006.

Respondents were also asked to rank how they expect to feel about their lives in five years time - a measure of hope. Kenyans ranked their hope at about 6.6.

Tortola said rankings for Life Evaluation and Hope are similar across the continent.

“If you look at Africa in general and begin to compare that to the rest of the world, Africa has a fairly low life evaluation when you look at other regions of the world.  Northern Europe has the highest life evaluation around the world.  And if you look at hope - there is a lot of hope in Africa,” he said.

Gallup’s polling is based on face-to-face interviews with 2,400 Kenyans across the country over the course of three weeks, ending in August.

The survey was funded by a research institution called the East Africa Index.  Gallup plans to conduct three more surveys before the election.

You May Like

UN: 1 Million Somalis at Risk of Hunger

Group warns region is in dire need of humanitarian aid, with at least 200,000 children under age of five acutely malnourished as drought hits southern, central part of nation More

Human Rights Groups Allege Supression of Freedoms in Thailand

Thailand’s military, police have suppressed release of independent report assessing human rights in kingdom during first 100 days of latest coup More

Jennifer Lawrence Contacts FBI After Nude Photos Hacked

'Silver Linings Playbook' actress' photos were posted on image-sharing forum 4chan; Federal Bureau of Investigations is looking into matter More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Paul Gesimba from: Nairobi
October 08, 2012 10:50 AM
The major question is if the local courts will allow the two closest challengers to run or vie for the forthcoming polls Since the new constitution has set up a very high bar for leadership and integrity and will they team up against the main challenger .What if there will be a run -Off those are the key questions at the heart and mind of every Kenyan who has the interests of the Country at heart


by: James Ruei Majok from: Unity state Bentiu
October 05, 2012 12:30 PM
Let kenya do whatever they want but let them do it peacefully with out death like 2008 election .Iam afeeling to kenya Authority to take care with life of is people in kenya

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Ukraine Schools Resume Classes, Donate to Government Forcesi
X
September 02, 2014 12:58 PM
A new school year has started in Ukraine but thousands of children in the war-torn east are unable to attend because of ongoing clashes with pro-Russia rebels. In Ukraine's capital, patriotic education has become the norm along with donations to support injured security forces fighting to take back rebel-held areas. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Kyiv.
Video

Video Ukraine Schools Resume Classes, Donate to Government Forces

A new school year has started in Ukraine but thousands of children in the war-torn east are unable to attend because of ongoing clashes with pro-Russia rebels. In Ukraine's capital, patriotic education has become the norm along with donations to support injured security forces fighting to take back rebel-held areas. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Kyiv.
Video

Video US Detainees Want Negotiators for Freedom in North Korea

The three U.S. detainees held in North Korea were permitted to speak with foreign media Monday. The government of Kim Jong Un restricted the topics of the questions, and the interviews in Pyongyang were limited to five minutes. Each of the men asked Washington to send a representative to Pyongyang to secure his release. VOA’s Carolyn Presutti has our story.
Video

Video Internet, Technology Offer New Tools for Journalists

The Internet and rapidly evolving technology is quickly changing how people receive news and how journalists deliver it. There are now more ways to tell a story than ever before. One school in Los Angeles is teaching the next generation of journalists with the help of a state-of-the-art newsroom. Elizabeth Lee has this report.
Video

Video Turkmen From Amerli Describe Survival of IS Siege

Over the past few weeks, hundreds of Shi'ite Turkmen have fled the town of Amerli seeking refuge in the northern city of Kirkuk. Despite recent military gains after U.S. airstrikes that were coordinated with Iraqi and Kurdish forces, the situation remains dire for Amerli’s residents. Sebastian Meyer went to Kirkuk for VOA to speak to those who managed to escape.
Video

Video West Africa Ebola Vaccine Trials Possible by Early 2015

A U.S. health agency is speeding up clinical trials of a possible vaccine against the deadly Ebola virus that so far has killed more than 1,500 people in West Africa. If successful, the next step would be a larger trial in countries where the outbreak is occurring. VOA's Carol Pearson has more.
Video

Video Survivors Commemorate 70th Anniversary of Nazi Liquidation of Jewish Ghetto

When the German Nazi army occupied the Polish city of Lodz in 1939, it marked the beginning of a long nightmare for the Jewish community that once made up one third of the population. Roughly 200,000 people were forced into the Lodz Ghetto. Less than 7,000 survived. As VOA’s Kane Farabaugh reports, some survivors gathered at the Union League Club in Chicago on the 70th anniversary of the liquidation of the Lodz Ghetto to remember those who suffered at the hands of the Nazi regime.
Video

Video Cost to Raise Child in US Continues to Rise

The cost of raising a child in the United States continues to rise. In its latest annual report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says middle income families with a child born in 2013 can expect to spend more than $240,000 before that child turns 18. And sending that child to college more than doubles that amount. VOA’s Deborah Block visited with a couple with one child in Alexandria, Virginia, to learn if the report reflects their lifestyle.
Video

Video Chaotic Afghan Vote Recount Threatens Nation’s Future

Afghanistan’s troubled presidential election continues to be rocked by turmoil as an audit of the ballots drags on. The U.N. says the recount will not be completed before September 10. Observers say repeated disputes and delays are threatening the orderly transfer of power and could have dangerous consequences. VOA correspondent Meredith Buel reports.

AppleAndroid