News / Africa

Poll Shows Kenyan PM Holds Small Lead in Presidential Race

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga addresses the foreign journalists in Nairobi, Kenya, June 12, 2012.
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga addresses the foreign journalists in Nairobi, Kenya, June 12, 2012.
Gabe Joselow
A new poll shows Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga holding a narrow lead over his rivals in the country’s presidential race.  With five  months to go until the election, it is still anybody’s race.

The newest survey from the U.S.-based polling agency Gallup shows 28.6 percent of Kenyans over the age of 18 support Prime Minister Odinga in his bid for the presidency.  His closest rival, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has 21.5 percent support.

Gallup Regional Research Director Bob Tortora, speaking in Nairobi Friday, said among more likely voters, the race is even tighter.

“But what happens if you now restrict it to those Kenyans who are telling us that they are registered to vote now?  Then the picture changes a little bit and the prime minister and the deputy prime minister are statistically tied,” said Tortora.

In third place is member of parliament William Ruto, who has the support of 14 percent of eligible and registered voters.

Both Ruto and Kenyatta are facing trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of instigating the violence that followed the disputed presidential election in 2007, in which over one thousand people were killed.

The poll found that 69 percent of Kenyans who are aware of the ICC approve of using the court to investigate the post-election violence, though there was no mention of what impact, if any, that perception will have on the election.

The poll also found that one out of every four Kenyans believes there will be a repeat of violence after next year’s vote.

Looking beyond politics, Gallup also surveyed Kenyans on something called Life Evaluation, asking participants to rank their well-being from a scale of one to ten, with ten being what they imagine to be the best possible life.

The survey showed Kenyans ranked their well-being at 4.3, up from 4.0 in 2006.

Respondents were also asked to rank how they expect to feel about their lives in five years time - a measure of hope. Kenyans ranked their hope at about 6.6.

Tortola said rankings for Life Evaluation and Hope are similar across the continent.

“If you look at Africa in general and begin to compare that to the rest of the world, Africa has a fairly low life evaluation when you look at other regions of the world.  Northern Europe has the highest life evaluation around the world.  And if you look at hope - there is a lot of hope in Africa,” he said.

Gallup’s polling is based on face-to-face interviews with 2,400 Kenyans across the country over the course of three weeks, ending in August.

The survey was funded by a research institution called the East Africa Index.  Gallup plans to conduct three more surveys before the election.

You May Like

Arab League Delays Forming Joint Force

Delay grows out of one of original obstacles facing pan-Arab force, analysts say: 'They may agree on the principle, but they continue to argue about how to implement the project' More

Pakistan Demands Afghanistan Protect Its Kabul Mission, Staff

Officials in Islamabad say Afghan agents are harassing Pakistani embassy personnel, particularly those living outside of mission’s compound More

US Survey: Trump Lead Grows in Republican Presidential Contest

Quinnipiac University poll shows brash billionaire real estate mogul with 28 percent support among Republican voters More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Paul Gesimba from: Nairobi
October 08, 2012 10:50 AM
The major question is if the local courts will allow the two closest challengers to run or vie for the forthcoming polls Since the new constitution has set up a very high bar for leadership and integrity and will they team up against the main challenger .What if there will be a run -Off those are the key questions at the heart and mind of every Kenyan who has the interests of the Country at heart

by: James Ruei Majok from: Unity state Bentiu
October 05, 2012 12:30 PM
Let kenya do whatever they want but let them do it peacefully with out death like 2008 election .Iam afeeling to kenya Authority to take care with life of is people in kenya

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Colombians Flee Venezuela as Border Crisis Escalatesi
X
August 27, 2015 2:08 AM
Hundreds of Colombians have fled Venezuela since last week, amid an escalating border crisis between the two countries. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered the closure of a key border crossing after smugglers injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian. The president also ordered the deportation of Colombians who are in Venezuela illegally. Zlatica Hoke reports.
Video

Video Colombians Flee Venezuela as Border Crisis Escalates

Hundreds of Colombians have fled Venezuela since last week, amid an escalating border crisis between the two countries. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered the closure of a key border crossing after smugglers injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian. The president also ordered the deportation of Colombians who are in Venezuela illegally. Zlatica Hoke reports.
Video

Video Is China's Economic Data Accurate?

Some investors say China's wild stock market gyrations have been made worse by worries about the reliability of that nation's economic data. And some critics say the reports can mislead investors by painting an unrealistically-strong picture of the economy. A key China scholar says Beijing is not fudging ((manipulating)) the numbers, but that the economy is evolving quickly from smoke-stack industries to services, and the ways of tracking new economic activity are falling behind the change. V
Video

Video Next to Iran, Climate at Forefront of Obama Agenda

President Barack Obama this week announced new initiatives aimed at making it easier for Americans to access renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Obama is not slowing down when it comes to pushing through climate change measures, an issue he says is the greatest threat to the country’s national security. VOA correspondent Aru Pande has more from the White House.
Video

Video Shipping Containers Provide Experimental Housing

Housing prices around the San Francisco Bay area are out of reach for many people, so some young entrepreneurs, artists and tech industry workers are creating their own houses using converted shipping containers. But as VOA's Mike O’Sullivan reports from Oakland, the effort requires ingenuity and dealing with restrictive local laws.
Video

Video Arctic Draws International Competition for Oil

A new geopolitical “Great Game” is underway in earth’s northernmost region, the Arctic, where Russia has claimed a large area for resource development and President Barack Obama recently approved Shell Oil Company’s test-drilling project in an area under U.S. control. Greg Flakus reports.
Video

Video Philippine Maritime Police: Chinese Fishermen a Threat to Country’s Security

China and the Philippines both claim maritime rights in the South China Sea.  That includes the right to fish in those waters. Jason Strother reports on how the Philippines is catching Chinese nationals it says are illegal poachers. He has the story from Palawan province.
Video

Video Technique May Eliminate Drill-and-Fill Dental Care

Many people dread visiting dentists because they're afraid of drills. Now, however, a technology developed by a British firm promises to eliminate the need for mechanical cleaning of dental cavities by speeding a natural process of tooth repair. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video China's Spratly Island Building Said to Light Up the Night 'Like A City'

Southeast Asian countries claim China has illegally seized territory in the Spratly islands. It is especially a concern for a Philippine mayor who says Beijing is occupying parts of his municipality. Jason Strother reports from the capital of Palawan province, Puerto Princesa.
Video

Video Ages-old Ice Reveals Secrets of Climate Change

Ice caps don't just exist at the world's poles. There are also tropical ice caps, and the largest sits atop the Peruvian Andes - but it is melting, quickly, and may be gone within the next 20 years. George Putic reports scientists are now rushing to take samples to get at the valuable information about climate change locked in the ice.
Video

Video French Experiment in Integrating Roma Under Threat

Plans to destroy France’s oldest slum have sparked an outcry on the part of its Roma residents. As Lisa Bryant reports from the Paris suburb of La Courneuve, rights groups argue the community is a fledgling experiment on integrating Roma who are often outcasts in many parts of Europe.
Video

Video Kenyans Turn to Agriculture for Business

Each year Kenyan universities continue to churn out graduates for the job market despite the already existing high rate of unemployment among youth in the country. Some of these young men and women have realized that agriculture can be as rewarding as any other business or job, and they are resorting to agribusiness in large numbers as a way of tackling unemployment. Rael Ombuor reports for VOA.
Video

Video First Women Graduate Elite Army Ranger School

Two women are making history for the U.S. Army by proving they are among the toughest of the tough. VOA's Carla Babb reports from Fort Benning, Georgia as 94 men and those two women rise as graduates of the difficult Ranger school.

VOA Blogs