Turkish president-elect Tayyip Erdogan looks set to maintain his influence on daily politics after he is sworn in next week, with close allies likely to take on cabinet posts in a new government and his economic team expected to remain largely intact.
Outgoing president Abdullah Gul said on Tuesday that Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was likely to take over as chairman of the party and become the next prime minister, rekindling speculation about the shape of the new cabinet.
Davutoglu, an academic who has served as Erdogan's foreign minister for the past five years, is expected to be confirmed as the ruling AK Party's nominee for chairman on Thursday before being formally voted in at an AK general assembly on August 27.
Senior AK officials told Reuters that ministers responsible for the economy would remain in place under Davutoglu, and that close Erdogan allies including his top aide Yalcin Akdogan and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan might be given cabinet positions.
Investors have been particularly concerned about the fate of Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, who have guided the Turkish economy toward unprecedented stability in recent years.
“The decision will be up to Erdogan and Davutoglu, but in the new cabinet which is expected to be formed at the beginning of September, no changes are expected with Babacan and Simsek or other economic portfolios,” one senior AK official said.
Erdogan, who co-founded the AK Party and has dominated Turkish politics for more than a decade as prime minister, won the country's first national presidential election on Aug. 10 with more than 51 percent of the vote.
Senior officials had told Reuters before the vote that economic ministers would be retained at least until a parliamentary election next June if Erdogan won.
Erdogan will step down as leader of the AK Party when he is inaugurated on Aug. 28, as required by the constitution, but has made clear that he wants the party he co-founded with Gul more than 10 years ago to remain loyal and unified.
“Davutoglu is certainly someone that Erdogan can control, because he doesn't have his own constituency. Erdogan made him. He's about the most amenable prime minister that could be chosen,” one European diplomat said.
Erdogan wants a strong and loyal party leader to boost the AK's majority in next June's election, a result which would help him to change the constitution and strengthen the powers of the presidency.
While Davutoglu is likely to back him in this, he lacks strong support among the AK's core voters, meaning Erdogan is likely to try to continue to assert his influence over the party even after breaking formal ties.
“Davutoglu lacks Erdogan's caustic rhetorical skills and ability to inspire almost fanatical personal devotion amongst the AKP's grassroots. He is likely to struggle to impose himself and be dependent on Erdogan to maintain party unity,” risk research firm Teneo Intelligence's Wolfango Piccoli said.
“If Davutoglu performs badly, fears that the AKP could lose its majority at the next general election ... may lead to calls for Gul to return to lead the party, raising the possibility of an intensification of Gul's long-running rivalry with Erdogan,” said Piccoli.
Davutoglu has overseen Turkish foreign policy at a turbulent time for the Middle East, with wars in neighboring Iraq and Syria and the Arab Spring uprisings, but his “zero problems with the neighbors” policy has crumbled, with relations degraded with Egypt, Syria, Israel, Iraq and Iran.
“In the Middle East he is basically persona non grata ... they're isolated. Countries like Egypt are hardly going to be happy if he is prime minister and Erdogan is president,” the European diplomat said.
Gul, who commands respect among core AK voters and is seen as a more conciliatory figure than Erdogan, had long been touted as a future prime minister. But he has been sidelined in recent months and, could not in any case immediately become party leader.
Senior AK officials said intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, one of Erdogan's closest confidantes, and EU minister Mevlut Cavusoglu were being considered as possible replacements for Davutoglu in the role of foreign minister.
Top aide Yalcin Akdogan was also expected to take up a position in cabinet, possibly as a deputy prime minister, while AK deputy chairman Mustafa Sentop is seen as a candidate for justice minister, the officials said.