News / Middle East

    Column: If Maliki Can Go, Why Not Assad?

    Men remove rubble at a water plant in Raqqa, after what locals said was an air raid by Syrian government forces that targeted the plant, resulting in a water cutoff for residents.
    Men remove rubble at a water plant in Raqqa, after what locals said was an air raid by Syrian government forces that targeted the plant, resulting in a water cutoff for residents.

    The impressive results of U.S. air strikes in Iraq this month are prompting new calls from some quarters for similar U.S. intervention in Syria.

    Abdulrahman Dadam, president of the Free Aleppo Governorate Council, wrote an impassioned plea for a U.S./NATO no fly zone to protect his historic city from both the Islamic State (IS) and the regime of Bashar al-Assad and establish a safe corridor from Turkey for humanitarian aid.

    “The fall of Aleppo would precipitate a series of catastrophic events in Syria, further tipping the scales in favor of Assad’s forces and the expansion of ISIS,” Dadam warned. “Without air support and weapons from the United States, we stand little chance to prevent this collapse and sustain our city as a beacon for Syrians engaged in the two-front conflict against both terrorists and the regime.” 

    For someone who advocated such a no fly zone in Syria three years ago – before the rise of IS –  Dadam’s arguments have merit. But for now, it seems unlikely that the Obama administration will open a second front against IS without a broader regional and international consensus about what the future of Syria should be.

    The peaceful removal of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister of Iraq created an important precedent. Maliki – whose State of Law party actually won a reasonably fair election in April – agreed not to seek a third term under pressure from both the United States and Iran as well as the senior Shi'ite Muslim cleric in Iraq, Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Other important countries that have been hostile to the Maliki government, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, also signaled their approval for the designation of a new prime minister, Haider al-Abadi.

    Unfortunately, such a broad consensus is lacking when it comes to Assad, who recently “won” a third seven-year term in an election that offered no viable competition.

    Russia and Iran continue to support him and Assad has cleverly used the menace of IS to argue that even his bloody regime is superior to a group so extreme that it has been excommunicated by al-Qaida central. He was, of course, complicit in the rise of this Frankenstein’s monster – opening the prisons and releasing Islamic extremists in an effort to discredit more moderate opposition forces. He also bought time by dribbling out his known stocks of chemical weapons, all of which have now been destroyed.

    Just because Assad sees himself as irreplaceable does not mean he is or need be much longer. The U.S. should build on the diplomacy it used to pass a UN Security Council Resolution last week against IS to revive consultations on a post-Assad future for Syria that can bring together elements of the regime with the moderate Syrian opposition. Squeezed between Assad and IS, the moderates currently have no chance of success – even with much greater U.S. military support.

    Key players in this new diplomatic effort include the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran. The latest UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura,  should be in charge of the process. Unlike the failed “Geneva II” talks – from which Iran was excluded at the last minute – Tehran must be an integral party  from the start.

    Iranian officials have indicated that they have no love for Assad but have backed him in the absence of a credible alternative. However, the rise of IS – which is now on the border with Iran in Iraq’s Diyala province – has altered Iranian priorities and put the U.S. and Iran together in a tacit alliance against the Sunni extremists in Iraq.

    If elements of the Syrian regime and opposition can coalesce on an anti-IS platform, that could change the calculations in both Tehran and Washington. It is certainly a topic worth discussing on the sidelines of upcoming nuclear negotiations.

    The U.S. strategy against IS in Iraq is only succeeding because the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Peshmerga are cooperating and providing the necessary ground forces.

    Interrupting his Martha’s Vineyard vacation earlier this week to mark the recapture of the strategic Mosul dam from IS,  President Obama noted, “this operation demonstrates that Iraqi and Kurdish forces are capable of working together in taking the fight to ISIL.  If they continue to do so, they will have the strong support of the United States of America.”

    U.S. policy in Syria should shift from half-hearted opposition to both IS and Assad  to building a coalition against IS that a majority of Syrians can support.  This will be a major diplomatic project that might also entail more U.S. military involvement which could be easily justified by humanitarian aims, such as protecting a humanitarian corridor to Aleppo.  

    Without a broader strategy, however, Congress is likely to balk – as was evident a year ago when Congress refused to approve U.S. air strikes on Syria's chemical weapons.

    With nearly 200,000 dead, a third of the population displaced and much of Syria destroyed, it is imperative that the U.S. and the rest of the international community revive their efforts to find a political solution that will remove Assad and unite a majority of Syrians against IS.  Every day that the Syrian war continues, it creates more potential recruits for IS in Syria and in neighboring states overflowing with Syrian refugees. 

    Although Obama hasn't mentioned Syria much lately. it is not sufficient just to fight IS in Iraq. This cancer must be attacked from both sides if it is to be defeated.


    Barbara Slavin

    Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

    You May Like

    Video Obama Remembers Fallen Troops for Memorial Day

    President urges Americans this holiday weekend to 'take a moment and offer a silent word of prayer or public word of thanks' to country's veterans

    Upsurge of Migratory Traffic Across Sahara From West to North Africa

    A report by the International Organization for Migration finds more than 60,000 migrants have transited through the Agadez region of Niger between February and April

    UN Blocks Access to Journalist Advocacy Group

    United Nations has rejected bid from nonprofit journalist advocacy group that wanted 'consultative status,' ranking that would have given them greater access to UN meetings

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    Chinese-Americans Heart Trump, Bucking National Trendi
    X
    May 27, 2016 5:57 AM
    A new study conducted by three Asian-American organizations shows there are three times as many Democrats as there are Republicans among Asian-American voters, and they favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. But one group, called Chinese-Americans For Trump, is going against the tide and strongly supports the business tycoon. VOA’s Elizabeth Lee caught up with them at a Trump rally and reports from Anaheim, California.
    Video

    Video Chinese-Americans Heart Trump, Bucking National Trend

    A new study conducted by three Asian-American organizations shows there are three times as many Democrats as there are Republicans among Asian-American voters, and they favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. But one group, called Chinese-Americans For Trump, is going against the tide and strongly supports the business tycoon. VOA’s Elizabeth Lee caught up with them at a Trump rally and reports from Anaheim, California.
    Video

    Video Reactions to Trump's Success Polarized Abroad

    What seemed impossible less than a year ago is now almost a certainty. New York real estate mogul Donald Trump has won the number of delegates needed to secure the Republican presidential nomination. The prospect has sparked as much controversy abroad as it has in the United States. Zlatica Hoke has more.
    Video

    Video Drawings by Children in Hiroshima Show Hope and Peace

    On Friday, President Barack Obama will visit Hiroshima, Japan, the first American president to do so while in office. In August 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the city to force Japan's surrender in World War II. Although their city lay in ruins, some Hiroshima schoolchildren drew pictures of hope and peace. The former students and their drawings are now part of a documentary called “Pictures from a Hiroshima Schoolyard.” VOA's Deborah Block has the story.
    Video

    Video Vietnamese Rapper Performs for Obama

    A prominent young Vietnamese artist told President Obama said she faced roadblocks as a woman rapper, and asked the president about government support for the arts. He asked her to rap, and he even offered to provide a base beat for her. Watch what happened.
    Video

    Video Roots Run Deep for Tunisia's Dwindling Jewish Community

    This week, hundreds of Jewish pilgrims are defying terrorist threats to celebrate an ancient religious festival on the Tunisian island of Djerba. The festivities cast a spotlight on North Africa's once-vibrant Jewish population that has all but died out in recent decades. Despite rising threats of militant Islam and the country's battered economy, one of the Arab world's last Jewish communities is staying put and nurturing a new generation. VOA’s Lisa Bryant reports.
    Video

    Video Meet Your New Co-Worker: The Robot

    Increasing numbers of robots are joining the workforce, as companies scale back and more processes become automated. The latest robots are flexible and collaborative, built to work alongside humans as opposed to replacing them. VOA’s Tina Trinh looks at the next generation of automated employees helping out their human colleagues.
    Video

    Video Wheelchair Technology in Tune With Times

    Technologies for the disabled, including wheelchair technology, are advancing just as quickly as everything else in the digital age. Two new advances in wheelchairs offer improved control and a more comfortable fit. VOA's George Putic reports.
    Video

    Video Baby Boxes Offer Safe Haven for Unwanted Children

    No one knows exactly how many babies are abandoned worldwide each year. The statistic is a difficult one to determine because it is illegal in most places. Therefore unwanted babies are often hidden and left to die. But as Erika Celeste reports from Woodburn, Indiana, a new program hopes to make surrendering infants safer for everyone.
    Video

    Video California Celebration Showcases Local Wines, Balloons

    Communities in the U.S. often hold festivals to show what makes them special. In California, for example, farmers near Fresno celebrate their figs and those around Gilmore showcase their garlic. Mike O'Sullivan reports that the wine-producing region of Temecula offers local vintages in an annual festival where rides on hot-air balloons add to the excitement.
    Video

    Video US Elementary School Offers Living Science Lessons

    Zero is not a good score on a test at school. But Discovery Elementary is proud of its “net zero” rating. Net zero describes a building in which the amount of energy provided by on-site renewable sources equals the amount of energy the building uses. As Faiza Elmasry tells us, the innovative features in the building turn the school into a teaching tool, where kids can't help but learn about science and sustainability. Faith Lapidus narrates.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora