News / Middle East

    Column: If Maliki Can Go, Why Not Assad?

    Men remove rubble at a water plant in Raqqa, after what locals said was an air raid by Syrian government forces that targeted the plant, resulting in a water cutoff for residents.
    Men remove rubble at a water plant in Raqqa, after what locals said was an air raid by Syrian government forces that targeted the plant, resulting in a water cutoff for residents.

    The impressive results of U.S. air strikes in Iraq this month are prompting new calls from some quarters for similar U.S. intervention in Syria.

    Abdulrahman Dadam, president of the Free Aleppo Governorate Council, wrote an impassioned plea for a U.S./NATO no fly zone to protect his historic city from both the Islamic State (IS) and the regime of Bashar al-Assad and establish a safe corridor from Turkey for humanitarian aid.

    “The fall of Aleppo would precipitate a series of catastrophic events in Syria, further tipping the scales in favor of Assad’s forces and the expansion of ISIS,” Dadam warned. “Without air support and weapons from the United States, we stand little chance to prevent this collapse and sustain our city as a beacon for Syrians engaged in the two-front conflict against both terrorists and the regime.” 

    For someone who advocated such a no fly zone in Syria three years ago – before the rise of IS –  Dadam’s arguments have merit. But for now, it seems unlikely that the Obama administration will open a second front against IS without a broader regional and international consensus about what the future of Syria should be.

    The peaceful removal of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister of Iraq created an important precedent. Maliki – whose State of Law party actually won a reasonably fair election in April – agreed not to seek a third term under pressure from both the United States and Iran as well as the senior Shi'ite Muslim cleric in Iraq, Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Other important countries that have been hostile to the Maliki government, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, also signaled their approval for the designation of a new prime minister, Haider al-Abadi.

    Unfortunately, such a broad consensus is lacking when it comes to Assad, who recently “won” a third seven-year term in an election that offered no viable competition.

    Russia and Iran continue to support him and Assad has cleverly used the menace of IS to argue that even his bloody regime is superior to a group so extreme that it has been excommunicated by al-Qaida central. He was, of course, complicit in the rise of this Frankenstein’s monster – opening the prisons and releasing Islamic extremists in an effort to discredit more moderate opposition forces. He also bought time by dribbling out his known stocks of chemical weapons, all of which have now been destroyed.

    Just because Assad sees himself as irreplaceable does not mean he is or need be much longer. The U.S. should build on the diplomacy it used to pass a UN Security Council Resolution last week against IS to revive consultations on a post-Assad future for Syria that can bring together elements of the regime with the moderate Syrian opposition. Squeezed between Assad and IS, the moderates currently have no chance of success – even with much greater U.S. military support.

    Key players in this new diplomatic effort include the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran. The latest UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura,  should be in charge of the process. Unlike the failed “Geneva II” talks – from which Iran was excluded at the last minute – Tehran must be an integral party  from the start.

    Iranian officials have indicated that they have no love for Assad but have backed him in the absence of a credible alternative. However, the rise of IS – which is now on the border with Iran in Iraq’s Diyala province – has altered Iranian priorities and put the U.S. and Iran together in a tacit alliance against the Sunni extremists in Iraq.

    If elements of the Syrian regime and opposition can coalesce on an anti-IS platform, that could change the calculations in both Tehran and Washington. It is certainly a topic worth discussing on the sidelines of upcoming nuclear negotiations.

    The U.S. strategy against IS in Iraq is only succeeding because the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Peshmerga are cooperating and providing the necessary ground forces.

    Interrupting his Martha’s Vineyard vacation earlier this week to mark the recapture of the strategic Mosul dam from IS,  President Obama noted, “this operation demonstrates that Iraqi and Kurdish forces are capable of working together in taking the fight to ISIL.  If they continue to do so, they will have the strong support of the United States of America.”

    U.S. policy in Syria should shift from half-hearted opposition to both IS and Assad  to building a coalition against IS that a majority of Syrians can support.  This will be a major diplomatic project that might also entail more U.S. military involvement which could be easily justified by humanitarian aims, such as protecting a humanitarian corridor to Aleppo.  

    Without a broader strategy, however, Congress is likely to balk – as was evident a year ago when Congress refused to approve U.S. air strikes on Syria's chemical weapons.

    With nearly 200,000 dead, a third of the population displaced and much of Syria destroyed, it is imperative that the U.S. and the rest of the international community revive their efforts to find a political solution that will remove Assad and unite a majority of Syrians against IS.  Every day that the Syrian war continues, it creates more potential recruits for IS in Syria and in neighboring states overflowing with Syrian refugees. 

    Although Obama hasn't mentioned Syria much lately. it is not sufficient just to fight IS in Iraq. This cancer must be attacked from both sides if it is to be defeated.


    Barbara Slavin

    Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

    You May Like

    US-Russia Tensions Complicate Syria War

    With a shared enemy and opposing allies, Russia and the US are working to avoid confrontation

    Video Re-opening Old Wounds in Beirut's Bullet-riddled Yellow House

    Built in neo-Ottoman style in 1920s, it is set to be re-opened in Sept. as ‘memory museum’ - bullet-riddled walls and bunkered positions overlooking city’s notorious ‘Green Line’ maintained for posterity

    Cambodian-Americans Lobby for Human Rights Resolution

    Resolution condemns all forms of political violence in Cambodia, urges Cambodian government to end human rights violations, calls for respect of press freedom

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    Brexit Vote Plunges Global Markets Into Uncharted Territoryi
    X
    June 24, 2016 9:38 PM
    British voters plunged global markets into unknown territory after they voted Thursday to leave the European Union. The results of the Brexit vote, the term coined to describe the referendum, caught many off guard. Analysts say the resulting volatility could last for weeks, perhaps longer. Mil Arcega reports.
    Video

    Video Brexit Vote Plunges Global Markets Into Uncharted Territory

    British voters plunged global markets into unknown territory after they voted Thursday to leave the European Union. The results of the Brexit vote, the term coined to describe the referendum, caught many off guard. Analysts say the resulting volatility could last for weeks, perhaps longer. Mil Arcega reports.
    Video

    Video Orlando Shooting Changes Debate on Gun Control

    It’s been nearly two weeks since the largest mass shooting ever in the United States. Despite public calls for tighter gun control laws, Congress is at an impasse. Democratic lawmakers resorted to a 1960s civil rights tactic to portray their frustration. VOA’s Carolyn Presutti explains how the Orlando, Florida shooting is changing the debate.
    Video

    Video Tunisian Fishing Town Searches for Jobs, Local Development Solutions

    As the European Union tries to come to grips with its migrant crisis, some newcomers are leaving voluntarily. But those returning to their home countries face an uncertain future.  Five years after Tunisia's revolution, the tiny North African country is struggling with unrest, soaring unemployment and plummeting growth. From the southern Tunisian fishing town of Zarzis, Lisa Bryant takes a look for VOA at a search for local solutions.
    Video

    Video 'American Troops' in Russia Despite Tensions

    Historic battle re-enactment is a niche hobby with a fair number of adherents in Russia where past military victories are played-up by the Kremlin as a show of national strength. But, one group of World War II re-enactors in Moscow has the rare distinction of choosing to play western ally troops. VOA's Daniel Schearf explains.
    Video

    Video Experts: Very Few Killed in US Gun Violence Are Victims of Mass Shootings

    The deadly shooting at a Florida nightclub has reignited the debate in the U.S. over gun control. Although Congress doesn't provide government health agencies funds to study gun violence, public health experts say private research has helped them learn some things about the issue. VOA's Carol Pearson reports.
    Video

    Video Trump Unleashes Broadside Against Clinton to Try to Ease GOP Doubts

    Recent public opinion polls show Republican Donald Trump slipping behind Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential election matchup for November. Trump trails her both in fundraising and campaign organization, but he's intensifying his attacks on the former secretary of state. VOA National Correspondent Jim Malone reports.
    Video

    Video Muslim American Mayor Calls for Tolerance

    Syrian-born Mohamed Khairullah describes himself as "an American mayor who happens to be Muslim." As the three-term mayor of Prospect Park, New Jersey, he believes his town of 6,000 is an example of how ethnicity and religious beliefs should not determine a community's leadership. Ramon Taylor has this report from Prospect Park.
    Video

    Video Internal Rifts Over Syria Policy Could Be Headache for Next US President

    With the Obama administration showing little outward enthusiasm for adopting a more robust Syria policy, there is a strong likelihood that the internal discontent expressed by State Department employees will roll over to the next administration. VOA State Department correspondent Pam Dockins reports.
    Video

    Video Senegal to Park Colorful ‘Cars Rapide’ Permanently

    Brightly painted cars rapide are a hallmark of Dakar, offering residents a cheap way to get around the capital city since 1976. But the privately owned minibuses are scheduled to be parked for good in late 2018, as Ricci Shryock reports for VOA.
    Video

    Video Florida Gets $1 Million in Emergency Government Funding for Orlando

    The U.S. government has granted $1 million in emergency funding to the state of Florida to cover the costs linked to the June 12 massacre in Orlando. U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the grant Tuesday in Orlando, where she met with survivors of the shooting attack that killed 49 people. Zlatica Hoke reports.
    Video

    Video How to Print Impossible Shapes with Metal

    3-D printing with metals is rapidly becoming more advanced. As printers become more affordable, the industry is partnering with universities to refine processes for manufacturing previously impossible things. A new 3-D printing lab aims to bring the new technology closer to everyday use. VOA's George Putic reports.
    Video

    Video Big Somali Community in Minnesota Observes Muslim Religious Feast

    Ramadan is widely observed in the north central US state of Minnesota, which a large Muslim community calls home. VOA Somali service reporter Mohmud Masadde files this report from Minneapolis, the state's biggest city.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora