News / Middle East

Column: New Iranian President Undertakes ‘Damage Control’

In this photo released by the official website of the office of Iranian President-elect Hasan Rouhani, Rouhani speaks in a conference in Tehran, June 29, 2013.
In this photo released by the official website of the office of Iranian President-elect Hasan Rouhani, Rouhani speaks in a conference in Tehran, June 29, 2013.
This Sunday Iran will trade an abrasive diplomatic embarrassment for a far more presentable figure.
 
After eight years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, almost anyone would look good by comparison. Still, the new president, Hassan Rouhani, a Scottish-educated cleric, comes equipped with personal qualities, experience and relationships that could help stem Iran’s slide into economic crisis and international isolation.
 
“His main point is to rectify the mess resulting from the last eight years, i.e. damage control,” said Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, a researcher of modern Iranian political history at Queen's College, Oxford.
 
Boroujerdi, like many other Iran watchers, is “cautiously hopeful” that Rouhani can turn things around or at least prevent the situation from getting worse.
  
Rouhani’s first priority is stabilizing the Iranian economy. That, in turn, requires that he de-escalate the nuclear crisis with the West to prevent the imposition of new economic sanctions and obtain relief from some of those already imposed.
 
Rouhani will face enormous obstacles, both domestically and internationally. But there are at least four reasons why he might succeed where Ahmadinejad failed:

  • The 64-year-old cleric is a regime insider who has represented Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Iran’s Supreme Council of National Security for 23 years and headed the council for 16 years. Precisely because of this background, Rouhani knows what the supreme leader can and cannot accept and has real influence with him. In 2003, while Rouhani was negotiating with Britain, France and Germany, he persuaded Khamenei to suspend elements of Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Rouhani is also believed to have played a major role in persuading the supreme leader to suspend research into developing nuclear weapons.
  • Rouhani has a better chance than his predecessors in bridging the often paralyzing differences among Iranian factions that have doomed previous confidence-building deals with the United States. In addition to his ties to the supreme leader, Rouhani has a very close relationship with former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and was endorsed by Rafsanjani’s successor, Mohammad Khatami.  Rouhani also has an ally in parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who clashed frequently with Ahmadinejad.  However, disgruntled hardliners shut out in recent elections may still try to sabotage the new president through human rights abuses or terrorist acts abroad.
  • Rouhani understands how deep a hole Iran’s economy is in and that the only way to stop it from getting deeper is to acknowledge the crisis and achieve sanctions relief. Ahmadinejad wouldn’t even admit there was a hole, so he was in no position to stop digging.
  • Finally, Rouhani or a close aide – perhaps former U.N. ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif, a U.S.-educated prospective foreign minister -- will likely be authorized to hold direct talks with the United States on the nuclear issue and other matters. President Barack Obama has said repeatedly that he is ready for such talks. The six-nation process the U.S. inherited from the George W. Bush administration is too unwieldy to produce results. The only tentative accord the U.S. and Iran reached under Obama came in October 2009 when then Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns met for 45 minutes alone in Geneva with chief negotiator Saeed Jalili. The deal fell apart, however, because of Ahmadinejad’s unpopularity following disputed 2009 elections – the other factions accused him of selling out Iran’s interests to bolster his own questionable legitimacy.
 
A less contentious election
 
Rouhani can point to a far less contentious election. He scored more than 50 percent of the votes June 14 in a field of a half dozen carefully vetted candidates. Unlike 2009, when millions of Iranians came out to protest allegations of fraud, this time, they celebrated and appeared to interpret the Rouhani win as belated acknowledgement of their thwarted hopes for change four years ago.
 
While many Iranians would like Rouhani to relax restrictions on civil society and free political prisoners, the new president’s main focus will be on the economy. Here, the challenges he confronts are as formidable as any Iran has experienced since the early days of the 1979 revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. Iran’s economy has been in recession for the past two years, oil exports are less than half what they were two years ago and inflation is above 40 percent. Iranian factories are closing for lack of imported components; the latest US sanctions, which went into effect July 1, are forcing foreign automotive firms to stop selling kits and parts to Iranian companies. As a result, more than 120,000 automotive workers have lost their jobs over the past year.
 
Many Iranians are struggling to put food on the table and even to find medicine, in part because of high inflation, corruption and government mismanagement, but also because of U.S.-led sanctions. While the sanctions contain so-called humanitarian exemptions, bans on Iranian banks and on transfers of funds to and from Iran have caused foreign suppliers to flee the Iranian market. On July 26, the U.S. Treasury Department expanded a list of medical devices that can be exported without a license and advised foreign companies that they can legally be paid for humanitarian exports to Iran from non-sanctioned Iranian banks and external accounts of Iran’s Central Bank. Without an authorized U.S. banking channel to Iran or relief of sanctions on insuring shipments to Iran, however, it may be difficult to alleviate the shortages.
 
The nuclear talks deadlock
 
By replacing Ahmadinejad cronies with competent technocrats, Rouhani can alleviate some of these problems. But his presidency will likely be judged on whether he can end the deadlock in nuclear talks with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany, which are expected to resume early in the fall.
 
Many in the West, and at home, will not miss outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.Many in the West, and at home, will not miss outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
x
Many in the West, and at home, will not miss outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Many in the West, and at home, will not miss outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Rouhani has consistently stressed that Iran has a right to enrich uranium, in return for measures to assure the world that Iran is not seeking to make nuclear weapons. He has offered to increase access to Iran’s nuclear facilities going so far as to write, in a letter to Time magazine in 2006, that Iran would be willing to agree “on terms of the continuous presence of inspectors in Iran to verify credibly that no diversion [of enriched uranium] takes place.”

U.S. reaction to Rouhani’s win has been cautious, with officials saying that Washington has no intention of pre-emptively improving a prior offer that demands significant Iranian concessions in return for lifting sanctions on trade in precious metals and petrochemicals. In a conference call with reporters last week, Assistant Secretary of State Brett McGurk said, “we see the election as a clear expression of the Iranian people’s desire for change [and] are hopeful that will result in policy changes by the Iranian government.”
 
For progress to occur, however, the United States will also have to show flexibility – and Congress curb its appetite for new sanctions.
 
As Boroujerdi put it, “Rouhani cannot do it alone obviously. It will take a bit of time and behind the scenes lobbying and plenty of assurances regarding the terms.”

Click on Barbara Slavin's name below to view her previous columns.

Barbara Slavin

Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

You May Like

Photogallery Oxfam: Ebola Could Be 'Disaster of Our Generation'

Meanwhile, Fidel Castro, the former leader of Cuba, says the Caribbean island nation will 'gladly cooperate' with the US in the fight against Ebola in West Africa More

Multimedia Kobani Fighting Sends 400,000 Refugees to Turkey

Refugees receive help from Turkish authorities and individuals, but say much more is needed More

India’s Ruling Nationalist Party Makes Gains in Regional Elections

Bharatiya Janata Party’s huge margin over its rivals puts it on course to form governments in the northern Haryana and western Maharashtra states More

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Exclusive: American Joins Kurds' Anti-IS Fighti
X
Zana Omer
October 18, 2014 6:37 PM
The United States and other Western nations have expressed alarm about their citizens joining Islamic State forces in Syria and Iraq. In a rare counterpoint to the phenomenon, an American has taken up arms with the militants' Syrian Kurdish opponents. Elizabeth Arrott has more in this exclusive profile by VOA Kurdish reporter Zana Omer in Ras al Ayn, Syria.
Video

Video Exclusive: American Joins Kurds' Anti-IS Fight

The United States and other Western nations have expressed alarm about their citizens joining Islamic State forces in Syria and Iraq. In a rare counterpoint to the phenomenon, an American has taken up arms with the militants' Syrian Kurdish opponents. Elizabeth Arrott has more in this exclusive profile by VOA Kurdish reporter Zana Omer in Ras al Ayn, Syria.
Video

Video South Korea Confronts Violence Within Military Ranks

Every able-bodied South Korean male between 18 and 35 must serve for 21 to 36 months in the country’s armed forces, depending upon the specific branch. For many, service is a rite of passage to manhood. But there are growing concerns that bullying and violence come along with the tradition. Reporter Jason Strother has more from Seoul.
Video

Video Comanche People Maintain Pride in Their Heritage

The Comanche (Indian nation) once were called the “Lords of the Plains,” with an empire that included half the land area of current day Texas, large parts of Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas and Colorado.The fierceness and battle prowess of these warriors on horseback delayed the settlement of most of West Texas for four decades. VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from Lawton, Oklahoma, that while their warrior days are over, the 15,000 members of the Comanche Nation remain a proud people.
Video

Video Turkey Campus Attacks Raise Islamic Radicalization Fears

Concerns are growing in Turkey of Islamic radicalization at some universities, after clashes between supporters of the jihadist group Islamic State (IS) or ISIS, and those opposed to the extremists. Pro-jihadist literature is on sale openly on the streets of Istanbul. Critics accuse the government of turning a blind eye to radicalism at home, while Kurds accuse the president of supporting IS - a charge strongly denied. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
Video

Video Syrian Defector Leaks Shocking Photos of Torture Victims

Shocking photographs purporting to show Syrian torture victims are on display at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. The museum says the graphic images are among thousands of photographs recently smuggled out of Syria by a military policeman-turned-defector. As VOA reporter Julie Taboh reports, the museum says the photos provide further evidence of atrocities committed by the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against its own people.
Video

Video Drought-Stricken California Considers Upgrading Water System

A three-year drought in California is causing a water shortage that is being felt on farms and cities throughout the state. As VOA's Mike O’Sullivan reports, water experts, consumers and farmers say California needs to make changes to cope with an uncertain future.
Video

Video TechShop Puts High-tech Dreams Within Reach

Square, a business app and card reader, makes it possible to do credit card transactions through cell phones. But what made Square possible? VOA’s Adrianna Zhang and Enming Liu have the answer.
Video

Video Church for Atheists Goes Global

Atheists, by definition, do not believe in God. So they should have no need of a church. But two years ago, a pair of British stand-up comedians decided to create one. Sanderson Jones and Pippa Evans told the BBC they envisioned “something like church but without God". Their “Sunday Assembly” movement has grown from a single congregation in London to dozens of churches around the world. Reporter Mike Osborne visited with the members of a Sunday Assembly that now meets regularly in Nashville.
Video

Video Robot Locates Unexploded Underwater Mines

Many educators believe that hands-on experience is the best way to learn. Proving that the method works is a project developed by a group of students at the Stevens Institute of Technology, in Hoboken, New Jersey. They rose up to a challenge posted by the U.S. Department of Defense and successfully designed and built an underwater robot for locating submerged unexploded ordnance. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video Liberia's JFK Hospital Reopens After Temporary Ebola Exposure

JFK Hospital is Liberia’s largest and one of its oldest medical facilities. The hospital had to close temporarily following the deaths of two leading doctors from Ebola. It is now getting back on its feet, with the maternity ward being the first section to reopen. Benno Muchler has more for VOA News from Monrovia.
Video

Video Hong Kong Protests Expose Generation Gap

Most of the tens of thousands of protesters in Hong Kong are students seeking democracy. Idealistic youths say while the older generation worries about the present, they are fighting for the territory's future. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Hong Kong.
Video

Video Liberians Living in US Struggle From Afar as Ebola Ravages Homeland

More than 8,000 Liberians live in New York City, more than in any other city outside of Liberia itself. As VOA’s Bernard Shusman reports, with the Ebola virus ravaging their homeland, there is no peace of mind for these New Yorkers.
Video

Video Kurds See War-Ravaged Kobani As Political, Emotional Heartland

Intense fighting is continuing between Islamic State militants -- also known as ISIS or ISIL -- and Kurdish forces around the Syrian town of Kobani, on the Turkish border. The U.S. said it carried out at least nine airstrikes against Islamic State positions Friday. Meanwhile the U.N. has warned that hundreds of civilians would be massacred if the town falls to the militants. Henry Ridgwell looks at the strategic significance of the city.

All About America

AppleAndroid