News / Europe

Is 'Soviet Union Light' the Future of Putin's Russia?

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (2nd L) and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rakhmon (L) meet with servicemen as they visit a Russian military base in Dushanbe, October 5, 2012.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (2nd L) and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rakhmon (L) meet with servicemen as they visit a Russian military base in Dushanbe, October 5, 2012.
TEXT SIZE - +
— Russian President Vladimir Putin once described the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Two decades later, he is laboring to create what some critics call a "Soviet Union Light."

On a visit Friday to the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan, President Putin oversaw the signing of a 30-year extension of Russia's lease on three military bases there, home to 7,000 troops and Russia’s largest military deployment outside its borders.
 
In return for the lease extension, Russia promised to give Tajik migrants work permits valid for up to three years. Every year, one million Tajiks working in Russia send home $3 billion, crucial aid for their impoverished nation.

As the base deal was being signed, warplanes from Russia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan - all former Soviet republics - began 10 days of joint air-defense drills, codenamed “Clear Sky.”

Meanwhile, back home in Moscow, members of Russia’s Duma were celebrating Monday’s electoral defeat of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvhili. The new prime minister of Georgia is to be Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch who made his billions in Moscow in the 1990s.

Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, said in Tbilisi that Russian officials believe time is on their side. Moscow ruled Georgia for almost two centuries, including the 70 years it was part of the Soviet Union, and wants to restore the ties that were broken during the two countries brief war in 2008.

“Russians wants to restore diplomatic relations,” Rondeli said. “Russians want Georgia to accept reality, as they say, and to accept this Russian advancement into the Caucasus.”

Putin's dream

One year ago, presidential candidate Vladimir Putin announced a goal of creating a Eurasian Union by 2015. Lawrence Sheets, South Caucasus project director for the International Crisis Group, said one big step toward that goal is winning back Georgia.

Sheets, speaking in his office in Tbilisi, said President Putin is trying to reassert Russia's influence abroad, to establish "some sort of rump Soviet Union, if you like, [and] also to put pressure on Georgia, so that Georgia comes back to the fold.”
 
Indeed, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday that he will work to bring Georgia back into the Confederation of Independent States, a loose federation of nine of the 15 former Soviet republics.

Georgia, NATO "red line"

In Tbilisi, however, Prime Minister-apparent Ivanishvili, met with NATO’s top official for the South Caucasus and pledged his government will go forward with Georgia’s application to join the NATO alliance.

For Putin, NATO membership for Georgia would be crossing an unacceptable "red line."

Russia’s president envisages a federation of sovereign states, with everyone's foreign, defense and economic policies guided by the Kremlin. A common-currency project had been proposed, but that was shelved after the eurozone problems erupted.

Lilit Gevorgyan, analyst for Russia and the former Soviet Union at HIS Global, watches Putin’s progress from her office in London.

“Russia wants to become a global power broker," she said, "and it also wants to spread its ... political and economic influence, and it just makes logical sense for Putin to, first of all, reinstall [Moscow's] political and economic influence over the former Soviet countries.”

Winning over Ukraine
 
Putin’s first move came in January, when Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan joined a Moscow-dominated Customs Union. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are expected to join that group soon, but the big stumbling block has been Ukraine - the second largest member of the old USSR by population.

The Kremlin thought Ukraine was in the bag when Viktor Yanukovych was elected president there in January 2010. Yanukovych quickly extended Russia's lease on its Sevastopol naval base in Crimea by 25 years. Since then, however, he has tried to balance Moscow’s demands with Kyiv’s desire to join the European Union.

Over the last 18 months, a succession of Russian envoys dispatched to Ukraine to win further agreements have returned home empty-handed.

“There is an exaggeration of the ability of Putin, of the Russian government, to bring changes in other former Soviet states,” said analyst Gevorgyan. “They may have wishes. They may try to do something. But I do not see them having the power to actually bring to the helm of government their own guy.”

The 2015 deadline

Why did Putin say he wanted a Eurasian Union in place by 2015?

By then, some Moscow analysts predict the United States will be fully out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and Washington will refocus its attention on Russia.

Of course, if Mitt Romney wins next month’s U.S. presidential election, that day could come sooner. The Republican candidate has singled out Russia as America’s “number one geopolitical foe.”

James Brooke

A foreign correspondent who has reported from five continents, Brooke, known universally as Jim, is the Voice of America bureau chief for Russia and former Soviet Union countries. From his base in Moscow, Jim roams Russia and Russia’s southern neighbors.

You May Like

Analysts Warn of Regional Proxy Conflict in Afghanistan

Analysts warn if Kabul’s neighbors do not start to cooperate, competing desires for influence could deteriorate into a bloody proxy war in the country More

Saudi Intelligence Chief Replaced

Bandar bin Sultan came under criticism for supporting al Qaida, prompting King Abdallah to wrest Syria operations away from him in February, handing them to Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef More

Poetry Magazine editor Don Share talks what makes a good poem with VOA's David Byrd

What makes a good poem? And is poetry as viable an art form as it once was? To find out, VOA's David Byrd spoke to Don Share, the editor of Poetry Magazine. More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Dr. Malek Towghi (Baluch) from: USA
October 08, 2012 2:42 AM
A "EURASIA" or a "Eurasian Confederation" that includes all the former Soviet Union lands could be a blessing for the civilized world; it will check the onslaught of Islamic fanaticism and obscurantism. A revival of the Cold War anti-Russia chauvinistic & jingoistic mentality in the West particularly in my country, the USA, will be a disaster for humanity at large. That is why I will continue to pray for the re-election of Barack Obama.


by: Fong from: St. Louis
October 06, 2012 6:57 PM
Watch out. Polar bear is coming back.


by: Worry from: U.S.
October 06, 2012 1:25 PM
With Vladimir Putin pushing for a tenure comparable to that of the late General Secretary Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev, the comparisons are inevitable. Also, Mr. Putin's unapologetic view that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a terrible thing merely confirms the obvious. Anyone who thought that Vladimir Putin was different, despite his subsequent words and actions, has been shown to have been very foolish. The man is what he is, and has done his best to cobble back together to the extent possible a contracted and weaker form of the Soviet Union in all but name.


by: Robert from: New York
October 06, 2012 12:28 PM
'Soviet Union Light'? Surely, the author meant 'Soviet Union lite."

In Response

by: Dmitry from: Petersburg
October 08, 2012 7:18 AM
I don't know what author meant or Putin meant, but I mean - "USSR-2.0". We'll be back!


by: Nikos Retsos from: Chicago, USA
October 06, 2012 11:17 AM
Soviet Union Light? Not really. Soviet Union Compact? Probably so. In other words, Soviet Union locally expanded - no more distanced allies like Soviet Union's Angola, and Cuba. Putin has struggled to make do with European allies controlled by the U.S., and pre-conditions they demand for any issue on the table hat he thinks are designed to weaken Russia and benefit the West.
That is why he referred to Europeans as "U.S. vassals" on his speech to the European Conference in Davos, Switzerland, in 2008. He finds the former USSR republics easier to do with, and no one stands behind them and tells them how to deal with Russia. Plus, Central Asia is undeveloped and ready for exploitation by Russian companies; the U.S. effort to expand in Central Asia fizzled in Afghanistan, and India and China are investing there too. Pristine landscape, easy terms, corrupt regimes to ink easy deals, and markets and population exploding!

Soviet Union Light? No, Soviet Union smart - not authoritarian! Expansion and influence by investments and market control - as China has done in SE Asia. Expansion by invasions, wars, and by installed puppet regimes is becoming a thing of the past. Nikos Retsos, retired professor

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Google Buys Drone Companyi
|| 0:00:00
...
 
🔇
X
George Putic
April 15, 2014
In its latest purchase of high-tech companies, Google has acquired a manufacturer of solar-powered drones that can stay in the air almost indefinitely, relaying broadband Internet connection to remote areas. It is seen as yet another step in the U.S. based Web giant’s bid to bring Internet to the whole world. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video Google Buys Drone Company

In its latest purchase of high-tech companies, Google has acquired a manufacturer of solar-powered drones that can stay in the air almost indefinitely, relaying broadband Internet connection to remote areas. It is seen as yet another step in the U.S. based Web giant’s bid to bring Internet to the whole world. VOA’s George Putic reports.
Video

Video Ray Bonneville Sings the Blues and More on New CD

Singer/songwriter Ray Bonneville has released a new CD called “Easy Gone” with music that reflects his musical and personal journey from French-speaking Canada to his current home in Austin,Texas. The eclectic artist’s fan base extends from Texas to various parts of North America and Europe. VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from Austin.
Video

Video Millions Labor in Pakistan's Informal Economy

The World Bank says that in Pakistan, roughly 70 percent work in the so-called informal sector, a part of the economy that is unregulated and untaxed. VOA's Sharon Behn reports from Islamabad on how the informal sector impact's the Pakistani economy.
Video

Video Passover Celebrates Liberation from Bondage

Jewish people around the world are celebrating Passover, a commemoration of their liberation from slavery in Egypt more than 3,300 years ago. According to scripture, God helped the Jews, led by Moses, escape bondage in Egypt and cross the Red Sea into the desert. Zlatica Hoke reports that the story of the Jewish Exodus resonates with other people trying to escape slave-like conditions.
Video

Video Police Pursue Hate Crime Charges Against Kansas Shooting Suspect

Prosecutors are sifting through the evidence in the wake of Sunday’s shootings in a suburb of Kansas City, Missouri that left three people dead. A suspect in the shootings taken into custody is a white supremacist. As VOA’s Kane Farabaugh reports, he was well-known to law enforcement agencies and human rights groups alike.
Video

Video In Eastern Ukraine, Pro-unity Activists Emerge from Shadows

Amid the pro-Russian uprisings in eastern Ukraine, there is a large body of activists who support Ukrainian unity and reject Russian intervention. Their activities have remained largely underground, but they are preparing to take on their pro-Moscow opponents, as Henry Ridgwell reports from the eastern city of Donetsk.
Video

Video Basket Maker’s Skills Have World Reach

A prestigious craft show in the U.S. capital offers one-of-a-kind creations by more than 120 artists working in a variety of media. As VOA’s Julie Taboh reports from Washington, one artist lucky enough to be selected says sharing her skills with women overseas is just as significant.
Video

Video UN Report Urges Speedier Action to Avoid Climate Disaster

A new United Nations report says the world must switch from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources to control the effects of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the report (Sunday) following a meeting of scientists and government representatives in Berlin. The comprehensive review follows two recent IPCC reports that detail the certainty of climate change, its impacts and in this most recent report what to do about it. VOA’s Rosanne Skirble has the details.
AppleAndroid