News / USA

Spies Track Physical Illnesses of Foreign Leaders

Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro speaks during a meeting with Cuban and foreign intellectuals visiting Havana's international book fair February 15, 2011.
Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro speaks during a meeting with Cuban and foreign intellectuals visiting Havana's international book fair February 15, 2011.

In democracy or dictatorship, there may be no secret more closely guarded than the health of the country’s leader.  So when world leaders gather for an event like the U.N. General Assembly, intelligence agencies closely watch presidents and prime ministers for any clues as to their true medical conditions.

An ill-timed cough or sudden fever of a president, prime minister, dictator, or monarch can send financial markets into a tailspin, spark a nation to revolution, ignite a succession crisis, or swing an election.  Rose McDermott of Brown University, who has extensively researched and written about medical intelligence, says a foreign government can enjoy great political and diplomatic advantage if it can find out the true condition of an ailing world leader.

“It can be decisively important because it can really change the stability of governments, particularly in authoritarian or totalitarian regimes, where there’s really a limited number of people who have powerful decision-making authority. Knowing how sick someone is, what their prognosis is, what their diagnosis is, can give you some information about which horse to back in a particular kind of succession race,” McDermott said.

Deep inside the Central Intelligence Agency is a unit dedicated to uncovering the true physical and mental states of world leaders.  The Medical and Psychological Assessment Cell, or MPAC, employs or consults physicians, sociologists, political scientists, and cultural anthropologists to examine the conditions of top officials.

Getting accurate medical intelligence is a daunting task.  Dr. Jerrold Post, who in the 1970s founded the CIA unit to conduct psychological analysis of foreign leaders, says leaders feel it necessary to hide their medical conditions to avoid any appearance of weakness.

“One of the things that is important to note is this capacity to conceal.  We all want a leader who is all-wise, all-knowing, all-powerful, and the public image of a leader who is quite ailing can lead to as serious diminution in his attractiveness as a leader. And leaders understand this intuitively. So we’ve had some major concealments historically. And that continues to be the case,” Post said.

U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had not only polio but, during the beginning of his fourth term in 1944, a bad heart that killed him a year later.  President Grover Cleveland had secret jaw cancer surgery performed aboard a yacht in 1893.  Woodrow Wilson was kept in seclusion after suffering a debilitating stroke in 1919.  The failing health of world leaders like the shah of Iran and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos are more recent examples of official medical secrecy.

Dr. Jonathan Clemente, a physician who is writing a book on medical spying, says in today’s world much can be learned just by close examination of video or photographs, especially high-resolution images.

“Do we see any outward signs of physical disability or disease?  Then they will look at video.  They will look at how the person holds themselves.  How do they walk?  Do they have any signs of weakness or limping, their gait?  Do they have any difficulty walking?  Are they favoring one arm over the other? Or they’ll look at the symmetry of the face. Is there any sign of prior stroke?,” Clemente said.

But if a leader is kept out of sight, intelligence agencies must especially rely on human sources.  Fred Burton, vice-president of intelligence for the private strategic risk firm Stratfor, says developing sources to provide intelligence on an official’s medical state is no different than having an agent give the whereabouts of an al-Qaida terrorist or the state of Iran’s nuclear program.  

“That could be anything from hospital administrators to nurses to physicians’ assistants to couriers that transmit blood or body fluid for testing. It could be outsourced laboratories. It could be anybody who has capability to access medical records inside of a hospital kind of environment,” Burton said.

Burton says agents will collect medical waste items, which can yield important information about someone’s medical condition.  

“No discarded bandage or something like a syringe should be discounted because you can draw DNA and blood types and you can do some examination on the contents of even a discarded band-aid to try to determine perhaps what’s wrong with that person. So, as unseemly as that may sound, this is what intelligence services do,” he said.

Analysts say a leader is especially vulnerable to such remote examination if they go abroad for medical treatment, as many officials do.  Dr. Clemente says there have been instances of intelligence agencies trying to secretly obtain bodily fluids for medical examination.

“Then there are sort of apocryphal stories, which I think probably have some truth to it, that they have been able to surreptitiously obtain bodily fluids. And there are sort of several well-known examples of diverting plumbing in [the presidential guest residence] Blair House, or other places abroad where they are able to obtain stool and urine samples. I’ve not been able to find any sort of firm declassified information, but I have from a number of well-placed knowledgeable sources that at least there was some effort to do that,” Clemente said.

Dr. Clemente notes that in making a terminal diagnosis, doctors are taught never to tell someone that they have, say, six months to live.  He says the CIA’s analysts in medical intelligence also never make a firm prognosis of life expectancy.

“Similarly, the analysts at MPAC try to avoid making those prognostic statements - ‘Castro’s going to be dead in six months.’  What they try to do is collect facts. And they say, ‘someone with this condition will likely have this course over the time,’” Clemente said.

But even so, such remote examinations can be wildly off. In 2006, then-Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte told the Washington Post newspaper that Cuban leader Fidel Castro was at death’s door and had months, not years, to live.  Five years after that pronouncement, Castro is still alive.

Part two of our story:

You May Like

Lesotho Faces New Round of Violence, Political Crisis

Brutal killing of military officer has sent former leaders back into S. Africa where they're watching anxiously as regional officials head in to try to restore peace More

Video US Diplomat Expects Adoption of Bosnian Massacre Anniversary Resolution

Samantha Power says there's broad consensus about killings in Bosnia's war, but Russia calls resolution 'divisive,' backs UN countermeasure More

UN Report Exposes Widespread Boko Haram Atrocities

Damning report graphically details pattern of vicious, widespread atrocities committed by Islamist militants More

This forum has been closed.
Comments
     
There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Olympics Construction Scars Sacred Korean Mountaini
X
July 02, 2015 4:10 AM
Environmentalists in South Korea are protesting a Winter Olympics construction project to build a ski slope through a 500-year-old protected forest. Brian Padden reports that although there is strong national support for hosting the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, there are growing public concerns over the costs and possible ecological damage at the revered mountain.
Video

Video Olympics Construction Scars Sacred Korean Mountain

Environmentalists in South Korea are protesting a Winter Olympics construction project to build a ski slope through a 500-year-old protected forest. Brian Padden reports that although there is strong national support for hosting the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, there are growing public concerns over the costs and possible ecological damage at the revered mountain.
Video

Video Xenophobia Victims in South Africa Flee Violence, Then Return

Many Malawians fled South Africa early this year after xenophobic attacks on African immigrants. But many quickly found life was no better at home and have returned to South Africa – often illegally and without jobs, and facing the tough task of having to start over. Lameck Masina and Anita Powell file from Johannesburg.
Video

Video Family of American Marine Calls for Release From Iranian Prison

As the crowd of journalists covering the Iran talks swells, so too do the opportunities for media coverage.  Hoping to catch the attention of high-level diplomats, the family of American-Iranian marine Amir Hekmati is in Vienna, pleading for his release from an Iranian prison after nearly 4 years.  VOA’s Heather Murdock reports from Vienna.
Video

Video UK Holds Terror Drill as MPs Mull Tunisia Response

After pledging a tough response to last Friday’s terror attack in Tunisia, which came just days before the 10th anniversary of the bomb attacks on London’s transport network, British security services are shifting their focus to overseas counter-terror operations. VOA's Henry Ridgwell has more.
Video

Video Obama on Cuba: This is What Change Looks Like

President Barack Obama says the United States will soon reopen its embassy in Cuba for the first time since 1961, ending a half-century of isolation. VOA White House correspondent Luis Ramirez reports.
Video

Video Hate Groups Spread Influence Via Internet

Hate groups of various kinds are using the Internet for propaganda and recruitment, and a Jewish human rights organization that monitors these groups, the Simon Wiesenthal Center, says their influence is growing. The messages are different, but the calls to hatred or violence are similar. VOA's Mike O’Sullivan reports.
Video

Video US Silica Sand Mining Surge Worries Illinois Residents, Businesses

Increased domestic U.S. oil and gas production, thanks to advances known as “fracking,” has created a boom for other industries supporting that extraction. Demand for silica sand, used in fracking, could triple over the next five years. In the Midwest state of Illinois, people living near the mines are worried about how increased silica sand mining will affect their businesses and their health. VOA’s Kane Farabaugh has more in this first of a series of reports.
Video

Video Blind Somali Journalist Defies Odds in Mogadishu

Despite improving security in the last few years, Somalia remains one of the most dangerous countries to be a journalist – even more so for someone who cannot see. Abdulaziz Billow has the story of journalist Abdifatah Hassan Kalgacal, who has been reporting from the Somali capital for the last decade despite being blind.
Video

Video Texas Defies Same-Sex Marriage Ruling

Texas state officials have criticized the US Supreme Court decision giving same-sex couples the right to marry nationwide. The attorney general of Texas says last week's decision did not overrule constitutional "rights of religious liberty," and therefore officials performing wedding services can refuse to perform them for same-sex couples if it is against their religious beliefs. Zlatica Hoke reports on the controversy.
Video

Video Rabbi Hits Road to Heal Jewish-Muslim Relations in France

France is on high alert after last week's terrorist attack near the city Lyon, just six months after deadly Paris shootings. The attack have added new tensions to relations between French Jews and Muslims. France’s Jewish and Muslim communities also share a common heritage, though, and as far as one French rabbi is concerned, they are destined to be friends. From the Paris suburb of La Courneuve, Lisa Bryant reports about Rabbi Michel Serfaty and his friendship bus.
Video

Video Saudi Leaks Expose ‘Checkbook Diplomacy’ In Battle With Iran

Saudi Arabia’s willingness to wield its oil money on the global diplomatic stage appears to have been laid bare, after the website WikiLeaks published tens of thousands of leaked cables from Riyadh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
Video

Video In Kenya, Police Said to Shoot First, Ask Questions Later

An organization that documents torture and extrajudicial killings says Kenyan police were responsible for 1,252 shooting deaths in five cities, including Nairobi, between 2009 and 2014, representing 67 percent of all gun deaths in the areas reviewed. Gabe Joselow has more from Nairobi.

VOA Blogs