News / Middle East

Syria Violence May Worsen Post-Assad

Syria Violence May Worsen Post-Assadi
January 18, 2013 5:27 PM
Syria's civil war drags on, with diplomatic efforts making little headway and, according to the United Nations, more than 60,000 people killed. Experts don't see a quick solution, and believe that even if the rebels succeed in ousting President Bashar al-Assad, the violence could well continue, and even get worse. VOA's Al Pessin reports from London
Syria Violence May Worsen Post-Assad
Al Pessin
Syria's civil war drags on, with diplomatic efforts making little headway and, according to the United Nations, more than 60,000 people killed.  Experts don't see a quick solution, and believe that even if the rebels succeed in ousting President Bashar al-Assad, the violence could well continue, and even get worse.

"Of course, the worst case in Syria is more than imaginable: It's possible," said. Middle East expert Alia Brahimi of the London School of Economics.

"What is looking more likely is that if the regime were to collapse, you would get the worst-case scenario of revenge killings and inter-communal violence.  And you would also probably see violent power struggles from within the victorious opposition, and then of course regional actors coming in to back their own horses," Brahimi.

It's a bleak scenario, but not a surprising one.  Syria is split among Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims, various clans and sects, and Islamic militants and liberals.

"Syria is a crisis that may not be resolved for years to come, precisely because it plays into all these underlying sectarian and regional power struggles," Brahimi said.

Brahimi is referring to Iran, a Shi'ite power that backs Syria's Shi'ite leaders from the Alawite sect -- who in turn facilitate its influence in Lebanon -- and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states that would like to see a Sunni-led Syria and a weaker Iran.

Beyond that, Western powers would like to see a liberal, democratic Syria, while Russia is determined to protect its influence in the country.

But experts like Chris Doyle, at the Council for Arab-British Understanding, say an extended Syrian civil war is not inevitable if the various domestic and international players can be convinced their interests will be protected.

"If the regime was to fall from power right now there would be a huge power struggle within Syria.  If, however, there is some sort of political solution, a very clear transition process, then there is some chance that Syria can exit this dreadful crisis with something to look forward to," Doyle said.

But that would require agreement on the most contentious issue -- whether President Assad would resign immediately or stay at least for a transitional period.  Neither side is budging on that.

"It's possible to resolve this.  It's just that nobody really wants to at the moment," Brahimi said.

And that means Syrians are likely facing more months, if not years, of fighting -- whether Assad is in office or not.

You May Like

Afghanistan, Pakistan Leaders to Hold Icebreaking Talks in Paris

Two sides are expected to discuss ways to ease bilateral tensions and jointly work for resumption of stalled peace talks between Afghan government and Taliban officials

Corruption Busting Is Her Game

South African activist is building 'international online community of thousands of corruption fighters'

Former SAF Businessman Gives Books, Love of Reading to Students

Steve Tsakaris now involved in nonprofit Read to Rise, which distributes books in Soweto, encourages lower-grade primary school students to read

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
by: JKF from: Ottawa, Canada
January 23, 2013 5:07 PM
The sit in Syria every day hits a new low. We know the conflicted parties, but even the Western block is conflicted on sanctions. As soon as Hezbollah joined the Assad side of the conflict, the US requested the EU for sanctions on the terrorist organization, and the EU, especially Germany from media rpts, refused to sanction Hezbollah. The continued flow of money and other resources from the EU, enables this organization to prop-up Assad. Hezbollah is a very large, very well armed and very experienced fighting group; their ivolvement, buys Assad at least another 10 to 16 months in power. Once again, it shows that the EU has a clear double standard, this failure of the EU to sanction Hezbollah, will translate into potentially another 60,000 to 100,000 dead innocent Syrian civilians. The Arab league has also done nothing about Hezbollah; they could easily bring their case to the EU, but they have not, maybe they also do not realize how much impact Hezbollah has in sustaining Assad, and the continuation of the Syrian conflict.

by: kafantaris from: USA, Ohio
January 21, 2013 1:28 PM
We have become callous to the great suffering of the people of Syria -- just as we had become callous to the great suffering of the Jews of Hitler’s Germany. History will be unkind.
The heck with Russia and China -- these two treat their own people no better.
We need to act now in Syria. And we are already far too late -- just as we were for the Jews.
In Response

by: Anonymous
January 23, 2013 3:58 AM
But Russia is standing in the way, and has been ever since this began. Shame on Russia, an insult to the Syrian Nation, with only interests in Bashar. If it wasn't for Russia this war would of been over many many months ago, and tens of thousands less dead. The world waits anxiously for Bashar to be served Justice and for the Syrian people to move on without him. Cleanup and restoration will take years sadly. It is disgusting what a tyrant can do to a nation, genocide we call it.

by: JKF from: Ottawa, Canada
January 19, 2013 3:21 PM
The sit in Syria continues to deteriorate at an unprecedented rate. The sit of the civilians juts gets worse and worse; reports of even itra-factional fighting, especially whithin the opposition, to the Assad regime, can only lead to a continuation of this savage war. Past conflicts, in which many ethnic groups are polarized, have shown that- if there is a national authority collapse, the bloodshed will continue for quite some time. The best example of the sit is next door in Iraq; more or less the same main religeous groups are involved. If you look at the long term prospects, just look at Pakistan, were also the same religeous groups are involved. In both Iraq and Pakistan, the Shia population continues to be targeted by extremists; and there is very little reaction from the "civilized world" to the plight of the Shia Muslims.
If you look at the example of the Balkan wars, if the conflicted religeous ethnicities are not separated, the blood shed just continues unabated. At some time in the future, once the past is put behind, it is likely that the separeted ethnic/religeous groups will be able to reform larger multi-state units, like the EU. 70 yrs ago, the EU would have been unimaginable, so many wars were fought in Europe, over milenia, by the different ethnic groups, that the EU is in many ways is a miracle.
It is unfortunate, that the separation, through at least a federal system, was not applied in Iraq. In Syria, a federated state should be considered, at least as a transitional structure, to ensure the post-conflict blood letting does not continue; as it was done in Bosnia-Hersegovina.
It is shear wishful thinking, to expect that a post conflict Syria will be any bettter, than the post-conflict Iraq. It is usually those in majority populations, that are proponents and want to continue a state, which is clearly a state that never really worked for all ethnic groups, in the mix of such nations.
I hope all the conflicted parties, start abiding by international law, wrt the protection of the civilian population; and have some humanitarian compassion and allow for the provision of humanitarian supplies to the trapped civilian population; and better yet, if they would have a temporary cesefire, even on a regional basis, and then to progress to some more permanent ceasefire throughout Syria, followed by a peace agreement/transition/etc.

by: Ed from: Ryad, Saudi Arabia
January 19, 2013 2:05 AM
Of course things will worsen after the regime, because all of the jihadist and muslim backward thinking groups that are fighting in syria coz all of the above want to see Syria as country ruled by muslims only and the shari'a law being implemented which this is ludacris coz shari'a and democracy can't exist together, just look at all the fighting in Africa that is caused by Islamist acting shari'a law. This must stop and bashar al-Assad regime should be backed with western power to end the power struggle and end the infidel jihadist and Islamist.
In Response

by: Tom N Jerry from: Georgia, USA
January 21, 2013 8:55 AM
Look at what we have done in this region. Starting with the over through of Hussein in Iraq, supporting the "Arab spring," all through the region, being a major element in the execution of Kadaffi and finally, encouraging the over through of the Syrian government. In an effort to rid the world of terrorists, the US has created a larger number of terrorists than would have ever been possible without our interference and aid!
In Response

by: Anonymous
January 19, 2013 11:05 PM
Nah Bashar al Assad has killed way too many innocent civilians. He can't be the leader of any country. He must be tried for his murders and served justice. The majority population of Syria would agree. They have been calling for intervention since it started.

by: Anonymous
January 18, 2013 9:11 PM
I don't think anything will be as bad as it is now with Bashar al Assad dropping bombs, shooting missles, and tanks killing innocent civilians. Justice will be served and Syrians will prosper.

by: Murhaf Jouejati from: Washington DC
January 18, 2013 2:50 PM
Those who argue that violence in Syria in the post-Assad era will continue have obviously not consulted "The Day After" project that was put together by a group of Syrian intellectuals.

Murhaf Jouejati
TDA Project

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Belgium-Germany Border Remains Porous, Even As Manhunt For Paris Attacker Continuesi
Ayesha Tanzeem
November 25, 2015 10:46 PM
One of the suspected gunmen in the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, Salah Abdeslam, evaded law enforcement, made his way to Belgium, and is now believed to have fled to Germany. VOA correspondent Ayesha Tanzeem makes the journey across the border from Belgium into Germany to see how porous the borders really are.

Video Belgium-Germany Border Remains Porous, Even As Manhunt For Paris Attacker Continues

One of the suspected gunmen in the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, Salah Abdeslam, evaded law enforcement, made his way to Belgium, and is now believed to have fled to Germany. VOA correspondent Ayesha Tanzeem makes the journey across the border from Belgium into Germany to see how porous the borders really are.

Video Islamic State Unfazed by Losses in Iraq, Syria

Progress in the U.S.-led effort to beat Islamic State on its home turf in Iraq and Syria has led some to speculate the terror group may be growing desperate. But counterterror officials say that is not the case, and warn the recent spate of terror attacks is merely part of the group’s evolution. VOA National Security correspondent Jeff Seldin has more.

Video Taiwan Looks for Role in South China Sea Dispute

The Taiwanese government is one of several that claims territory in the hotly contested South China Sea, but Taipei has long been sidelined in the dispute, overshadowed by China. Now, as the Philippines challenges Beijing’s claims in an international court at The Hague, Taipei is looking to publicly assert its claims. VOA’s Bill Ide has more from Beijing.

Video Syrian Refugees in US Express Concern for Those Left Behind

Syrian immigrants in the United States are concerned about the negative tide of public opinion and the politicians who want to block a U.S. plan to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees. Zlatica Hoke reports many Americans are fighting to dispel suspicions linking refugees to terrorists.

Video After Paris Attacks, France Steps Up Fight Against IS

The November 13 Paris attacks have drawn increased attention to Syria, where many of the suspected perpetrators are said to have received training. French President Francois Hollande is working to build a broad international coalition to defeat Islamic State in Syria and in Iraq. Zlatica Hoke reports.

Video US, Cambodian Navies Pair Up in Gulf of Thailand

The U.S. Navy has deployed one of its newest and most advanced ships to Cambodia to conduct joint training drills in the Gulf of Thailand. Riding hull-to-hull with Cambodian ships, the seamen of the USS Fort Worth are executing joint-training drills that will help build relations in Southeast Asia. David Boyle reports for VOA from Preah Sihanouk province.

Video Americans Sharpen Focus on Terrorism

Washington will be quieter than usual this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, even as Americans across the nation register heightened concerns over possible terrorist threats. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports new polling data from ABC News and the Washington Post newspaper show an electorate increasingly focused on security issues after the deadly Islamic State attacks in Paris.

Video World Leaders Head to Paris for Climate Deal

Heads of state from nearly 80 countries are heading to Paris (November 30-December 11) to craft a global climate change agreement. The new accord will replace the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change that expired in 2012.

Video Uncertain Future for Syrian Refugee Resettlement in Illinois

For the trickle of Syrian refugees finding new homes in the Midwest city of Chicago, the call to end resettlement in many U.S. states is adding another dimension to their long journey fleeing war. Organizations working to help them integrate say the backlash since the Paris attacks is both harming and helping their efforts to provide refugees sanctuary. VOA's Kane Farabaugh reports.

Video Creating Physical Virtual Reality With Tiny Drones

As many computer gamers know, virtual reality is a three-dimensional picture, projected inside special googles. It can fool your brain into thinking the computer world is the real world. But If you try to touch it, it’s not there. Now Canadian researchers say it may be possible to create a physical virtual reality using tiny drones. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Video New American Indian Village Takes Visitors Back in Time

There is precious little opportunity to experience what life was like in the United States before its colonization by European settlers. Now, an American Indian village built in a park outside Washington is taking visitors back in time to experience the way of life of America's indigenous people. Carol Pearson narrates this report from VOA's June Soh.

Video Even With Hometown Liberated, Yazidi Refugees Fear Return

While the northern Iraqi town of Sinjar has been liberated from Islamic State forces, it's not clear whether Yazidi residents who fled the militants will now return home. VOA’s Mahmut Bozarslan talked with Yazidis, a religious and ethnic minority, at a Turkish refugee camp in Diyarbakır. Robert Raffaele narrates his report.

Video Nairobi Tailors Make Pope Francis’ Vestments

To ensure the pope is properly attired during his visit, the Kenya Conference of Catholic Bishops asked the Dolly Craft Sewing Project in the Nairobi slum of Kangemi to make the pope's vestments, the garments he will wear during the various ceremonies. Jill Craig reports.

Video Cross-Border Terrorism Puts Europe’s Passport-Free Travel in Doubt

The fallout from the Islamic State terror attacks in Paris has put the future of Europe’s passport-free travel area, known as the "Schengen Zone," in doubt. Several of the perpetrators were known to intelligence agencies, but were not intercepted. Henry Ridgwell reports from London European ministers are to hold an emergency meeting Friday in Brussels to look at ways of improving security.

Video El Niño Brings Unexpected Fish From Mexico to California

Fish in an unexpected spectrum of sizes, shapes and colors are moving north, through El Niño's warm currents from Mexican waters to the Pacific Ocean off California’s coast. El Nino is the periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. As Faiza Elmasry tells us, this phenomenon thrills scientists and gives anglers the chance of a once-in-a-lifetime big catch. Faith Lapidus narrates.

Video Terrorism in Many Forms Continues to Plague Africa

While the world's attention is on Paris in the wake of Friday night's deadly attacks, terrorism from various sides remains a looming threat in many African countries. Nigerian cities have been targeted this week by attacks many believe were staged by the violent Islamist group Boko Haram. In addition, residents in many regions are forced to flee their homes as they are terrorized by armed militias. Zlatica Hoke reports.

Video Study: Underage Marriage Rate Higher for Females in Pakistan

While attitudes about the societal role of females in Pakistan are evolving, research by child advocacy group Plan International suggests that underage marriage of girls remains a particularly big issue in the country. VOA’s Ayesha Tanzeem reports how such marriages leads to further social problems.

VOA Blogs