News / Middle East

    Turkish Protests Unlikely to Threaten Erdogan

    Protesters man a barricade near Gezi park, in Istanbul June 15, 2013, while others in Gezi Park debate the prime minister's proposal to end their park occupation.Protesters man a barricade near Gezi park, in Istanbul June 15, 2013, while others in Gezi Park debate the prime minister's proposal to end their park occupation.
    x
    Protesters man a barricade near Gezi park, in Istanbul June 15, 2013, while others in Gezi Park debate the prime minister's proposal to end their park occupation.
    Protesters man a barricade near Gezi park, in Istanbul June 15, 2013, while others in Gezi Park debate the prime minister's proposal to end their park occupation.
    David Arnold
    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is having his troubles with anti-government protesters these days, but regional experts predict he will survive the challenge and see out his term in office.

    The trouble had been brewing for months, with critics accusing Erdogan and his Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) of failing to listen to, much less accommodate, opposing political views.

    But the situation reached a boiling point last month when Erdogan ordered bulldozers to demolish Istanbul’s Gezi Park to make way for a pet development project honoring the Ottoman Empire that ruled Turkey and much of the Middle East until World War I.

    Gezi Park is one of Istanbul’s last open green spaces and the three-time prime minister’s order triggered bitter protests by Istanbul’s liberals and secular elites, which in turn triggered anti-government demonstrations in much of the country. Again, a main complaint was that Erdogan was not listening to opposing views and trying to impose conservative Islamic values on a sizeable percentage of the citizenry that considers itself secular.

    Many commentators, mainly outside Turkey, began comparing Erdogan’s plight to Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader who was Egypt’s president for a year until being ousted by the military last week. As with Erdogan, Morsi had been accused of failing to accommodate a more secular opposition.

    Erdogan's government described Morsi's ouster as an unacceptable military coup and on Tuesday, Cairo summoned the the Turkish ambassador to protest the remark.

    Turkey is different

    But regional experts say any comparison to Egypt is faulty because under Erdogan, Turkey has been prosperous, its currency has maintained its value, and most of all, the nation has a stable political system.

    In contrast to rising joblessness, rampant government corruption and unchecked police repression found in Egypt  and much of the Middle East and North Africa, Erdogan can point with pride to successful economic and development policies that have made Turkey a contender for admission to the European Union, a long-sought goal in Ankara.

    Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute’s Turkey research unit, said the protests inspired by the Gezi Park dispute show mainly that Turkey is maturing into a middle class society.

    “I think that would not have been the case if this had been Turkey 10 years ago when it was a much poorer country,” Cagaptay said. “And I think in this regard the AKP, the Justice and Development party, is a victim of its own success.

    “It has implemented sound economic policies, which have made Turkey a growing economy and a member of the prestigious G-20 club of economies, but also a majority middle class country for the first time in history,” he said.

    Bessma Momani, a Brookings Institution scholar and University of Waterloo political scientist, says there is another, political fundamental factor that sets Turkey apart.

    “The Erdogan government is still very much a democratic and legitimate one,” said Momani. “Analogies to Arab dictators are unjustified.”

    Gezi Park protests

    The Gezi Park dispute started in late May when environmentalists began protesting Erdogan’s plans to replace it with a shopping mall and an Ottoman-style replica of a 1940s military barracks.

    There were also proposals to tear down the nearby Ataturk Cultural Center honoring the charismatic leader who set Turkey on the path of secularism in the 1920s, and to build a large mosque on adjacent Istiklal Avenue, now a fashionable entertainment and dining area.

    “The mosque would sit right in the middle,” Momani said of the Istiklal Avenue plan. “This is the heartland of the European side of the city, not the Asian side where most of the mosques are and where the less affluent people live.”

    On the third night of the anti-government demonstrations in Gezi Park and other Turkish cities, Erdogan ordered in the police, who arrested more than 900 in Istanbul, Ankara and elsewhere. Medical personnel said the raids resulted in two deaths and more than a thousand injuries.

    The response was immediate and massive, with even larger protests throughout the country. Critics decried what they said were growing signs of authoritarian rule.

    “The issue was not just the park,” said Cagaptay. “It is that the government didn’t listen to the citizens.

    Erdogan’s leadership

    Erdogan has been described as an outspoken and charismatic speaker who brings tears to the eyes of party loyalists. “He runs the AKP like a one-man show,” Cagaptay said.

    “When he gets to the podium,” said Momani, “he yells and there are people who like that, and AKP loyalists love it. For the young, progressive, liberal urban population, it’s just a turn-off.

    “He is increasingly very arrogant,” adds Momani. “He is spouting off a lot of things like, ‘You should have four children,’ and ‘You should not have alcohol.’”

    Last week, a Turkish court overruled Erdogan’s Gezi Park demolition plans, delaying for at least the time being the prime minister’s urban redevelopment proposals. That decision gave Erdogan a temporary reprieve from the controversy to focus on his political future.

    The prime minister can now consolidate the conservative AKP with the political right, Cagaptay said, and that leaves “only a net 40 percent of the vote” for opposition in a political campaign in 2014.

    The question is which office he will choose to seek in 2014 elections – another term as prime minister or possibly the Turkish presidency. Both ideas would require some constitutional revisions, either to permit him a fourth term as prime minister or to strengthen the largely ceremonial office of the presidency and allow Erdogan to trade posts with the current president, Abdullah Gul.

    Whatever his choice, Erdogan could get a lift from tens of thousands of new supporters.

    According to the Brookings Institution’s Momani, these additional supporters are the conservative members of a new urban middle class who have moved from the countryside to the cities, most of them crediting Erdogan’s economic policies for their new-found status.

    You May Like

    Top US General: Turkish Media Report ‘Absurd'

    General Dunford rejects ‘irresponsible' claims of coup involvement by former four-star Army General Campbell, who led NATO forces in Afghanistan before retiring earlier this year

    Video Saving Ethiopian Children Thought to Be Cursed

    'Omo Child' looks at efforts of one African man to stop killings of ‘mingi’ children

    Protests Over Western Troops Threaten Libyan 'Unity' Government

    Fears mount that Islamist foes of ‘unity' government plan to declare a revolutionaries' council in Tripoli

    This forum has been closed.
    Comments
         
    There are no comments in this forum. Be first and add one

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    London’s Financial Crown at Risk as Rivals Eye Brexit Opportunitiesi
    X
    VOA News
    July 25, 2016 5:09 PM
    By most measures, London rivals New York as the only true global financial center. But Britain’s vote to leave the European Union – so-called ‘Brexit’ – means the city could lose its right to sell services tariff-free across the bloc, risking its position as Europe’s financial headquarters. Already some banks have said they may shift operations to the mainland. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
    Video

    Video London’s Financial Crown at Risk as Rivals Eye Brexit Opportunities

    By most measures, London rivals New York as the only true global financial center. But Britain’s vote to leave the European Union – so-called ‘Brexit’ – means the city could lose its right to sell services tariff-free across the bloc, risking its position as Europe’s financial headquarters. Already some banks have said they may shift operations to the mainland. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
    Video

    Video Recycling Lifeline for Lebanon’s Last Glassblowers

    In a small Lebanese coastal town, one family is preserving a craft that stretches back millennia. The art of glass blowing was developed by Phoenicians in the region, and the Khalifehs say they are the only ones keeping the skill alive in Lebanon. But despite teaming up with an eco-entrepreneur and receiving an unexpected boost from the country’s recent trash crisis the future remains uncertain. John Owens reports from Sarafand.
    Video

    Video Migrants Continue to Risk Lives Crossing US Border from Mexico

    In his speech Thursday before the Republican National Convention, the party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump, reiterated his proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if elected. Polls show a large percentage of Americans support better control of the nation's southwestern border, but as VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from the border town of Nogales in the Mexican state of Sonora, the situation faced by people trying to cross the border is already daunting.
    Video

    Video In State of Emergency, Turkey’s Erdogan Focuses on Spiritual Movement

    The state of emergency that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared is giving him even more power to expand a purge that has seen an estimated 60,000 people either arrested or suspended from their jobs. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports from Istanbul.
    Video

    Video Calm the Waters: US Doubles Down Diplomatic Efforts in ASEAN Meetings

    The United States is redoubling diplomatic efforts and looking to upcoming regional meetings to calm the waters after an international tribunal invalidated the legal basis of Beijing's extensive claims in the South China Sea. VOA State Department correspondent Nike Ching has the story.
    Video

    Video Four Brother Goats Arrive in Brooklyn on a Mission

    While it's unusual to see farm animals in cities, it's become familiar for residents of Brooklyn, New York, to see a little herd of goats. Unlike gas-powered mowing equipment, goats remove invasive weeds quietly and without adding more pollution to the air. As Faiza Elmasry tells us, this is a pilot program and if it proves to be successful, the goat gardener program will be extended to other areas of New York. Faith Lapidus narrates.
    Video

    Video Scientists in Poland Race to Save Honeybees

    Honeybees are in danger worldwide. Causes of what's known as colony collapse disorder range from pesticides and loss of habitat to infections. But scientists in Poland say they are on track to finding a cure for one of the diseases. VOA’s George Putic reports.
    Video

    Video Wall Already Runs Along Parts of US-Mexico Border

    The Republican Party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, gained the support of many voters by saying he would build a wall to keep undocumented immigrants and drugs from coming across the border from Mexico. Critics have called his idea impractical and offensive to Mexico, while supporters say such a bold approach is needed to control the border. VOA’s Greg Flakus has more from the border town of Nogales, Arizona.
    Video

    Video New HIV Tests Emphasize Rapid Results

    As the global fight against AIDS intensifies, activists have placed increasing importance on getting people to know their HIV status. Some companies are developing new HIV testing methods designed to be quick, easy and accurate. Thuso Khumalo looks at the latest methods, presented at the International AIDS conference in Durban, South Africa.
    Video

    Video African Youth with HIV Urge More Support

    HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, is the top killer of teens in sub-Saharan Africa. But many youths say their experience with the virus is unique and needs to be addressed differently than the adult epidemic. VOA South African Correspondent Anita Powell reports.
    Video

    Video Pop-Up Art Comes to Your Living Room, Backyard and Elsewhere

    Around the world, independent artists and musicians wrestle with a common problem: where to exhibit or perform? Traditional spaces such as museums and galleries are reserved for bigger names, and renting a space is not feasible for many. Enter ArtsUp, which connects artists with venue owners. Whether it’s a living room, restaurant, office or even a boat, pop-up events are bringing music and art to unexpected places. Tina Trinh has more.
    Video

    Video Scotland’s Booming Whisky Industry Fears Brexit Hangover

    After Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, Scotland’s government wants to break away from the United Kingdom – fearing the nation’s exports are at risk. Among the biggest of these is whisky. Henry Ridgwell reports on a time of turmoil for those involved in the ancient art of distilling Scotland’s most famous product.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora