News / USA

Report Sees Change in US Global Status

The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
x
The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
— A U.S. intelligence report released Monday predicts Asia’s economic power rising and US dominance declining.  This set off a global intellectual discussion about the conclusions.

The world will look different in the year 2030.  So says the U.S. Intelligence Director's report on global trends.  

No longer will the United States be the world superpower, no nation will take the title.  Power will be diffused and reflected in coalitions between countries.

The report says the Asia economy will surpass North America and Europe, combined.  

University of Denver International Futures Director Barry Hughes contributed to the report.  

“That is kind of a reversion to what we saw centuries ago on a global basis, so in a way we are going back to the future.  This is a transformation that none of us know where it’s going to take us,” Hughes said.

China’s economy, will be the largest in the world and will be 140-percent greater than Japan’s, and India’s will be 16 times larger than Pakistan’s.  

The report says the global economy will rely more on the health of developing nations, rather than the West.  The Atlantic Council's Banning Garrett says the United States created the climate for that.

“Although it makes some people in the west kind of frightened or nervous - the rise of China, the rise of India, the rise of Brazil - it should also be seen as a success.  And, I would say, since World War II the U.S. has had a policy of relative decline. ... That was our policy.  We thought it was a good thing not to be the largest power and everyone else was prostate before us,” Garrett said.

Analysts say the new role for the United States could be more of a mediator, especially to avoid what the report calls a spill over of violence from instability in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.  Analyst Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution.

“What the world is looking for from the United States ... is protection, in some cases, for the ability to organize.  If you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are looking for is the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what’s been missing is the United States playing that role,” Kagan said.

The report predicts 60 percent of the global population will live in cities, with an explosion of the middle class.  It attributes this to better access to education, new technology and health care.  

Organizers say the report is not intended to predict the future, but to follow trends to possible futures.  It includes what it calls “game changers” - variables that could shift the trends - like technology advances that could avert climate change or lead to a reformed Iran.

“We tend to straight line into the future that the Iran of today will be the Iran of tomorrow.  I really doubt it.  I think the people of Iran really want a middle class life and a more accountable government,” Garrett said.

The report predicts the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together, leading global cooperation.

Carolyn Presutti

Carolyn Presutti is an Emmy and Silver World Medal award winning television correspondent who works out of VOA’s Washington headquarters.   She has also won numerous Associated Press awards and a Clarion for her coverage of The Syrian Medical Crisis, Haiti, The Boston Marathon Bombing, Presidential Politics, The Southern Economy, and The 9/11 Bombing Anniversary.  In 2013, Carolyn aired exclusive stories on the Asiana plane crash and was named VOA’s chief reporter with Google Glass.

You can follow Carolyn on Twitter at CarolynVOA, on Google Plus and Facebook.

You May Like

EU Court Fines Poland for Hosting CIA 'Black Sites'

Ruling is first time a court has acknowledged suspects were held and tortured at the sites, under US program launched following the 9/11 terrorist attacks More

Migrant Issues Close to Home Spur Groups to Take Action

Groups placing water, food in the desert, or aiding detainees after release, have one common goal: no more deaths of migrants crossing illegally into the US More

Video At AIDS Conference, Prevention Pill Stirs Excitement

Truveda shows promise, spurring debate over access and other approaches More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Yang from: PRC
December 12, 2012 2:42 PM
If US want a stable high employee rate, they should know they can not import from abroad as much as they do currently. In my personal view, if US can not cut down any forms of import from other counties, it will face a big storm even uprising. Because, either stimulation of estate and inflation not only can not resolve the economic problems, but also will bring the other social problem. The resolution of US economic problems should be concerned on 1. cutdown import, stimulate export. 2. explore other undeveloped lands such as africa.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Israel Targets Gaza Supply Tunnelsi
X
July 24, 2014 4:42 AM
The Israeli military has launched a ground operation in Gaza to destroy the myriad tunnels that may have been used to smuggle weapons to Hamas. VOA's Zlatica Hoke reports that could mean more hardship for the people of Gaza, who obtain some of their essential supplies through these underground passages
Video

Video Israel Targets Gaza Supply Tunnels

The Israeli military has launched a ground operation in Gaza to destroy the myriad tunnels that may have been used to smuggle weapons to Hamas. VOA's Zlatica Hoke reports that could mean more hardship for the people of Gaza, who obtain some of their essential supplies through these underground passages
Video

Video MH17's 'Black Boxes' Could Reveal Crash Details

The government of Malaysia now has custody of the cockpit voice and flight data recorders from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was hit by a missile over Ukraine before crashing last week. As VOA's Carolyn Presutti reports, the so-called black boxes may hold information about the final minutes of the flight.
Video

Video Living in the Shadows Panel Discussion

Following a screening of the new VOA documentary, "AIDS - Living in the Shadows," at the World AIDS conference in Melbourne, a panel discussed the film and how to combat the stigma associated with HIV/AIDS.
Video

Video IAEA: Iran Turns its Enriched Uranium Into Less Harmful Form

Iran has converted its stockpiles of enriched uranium into a less dangerous form that is more difficult to use for nuclear weapons, according to the United Nations’ Atomic Energy Agency. The move complies with an interim deal reached with Western powers on Iran's nuclear program last year, in exchange for easing of sanctions. Henry Ridgwell reports for VOA from London.
Video

Video Relic of Saint Draws Catholics Worried About Immigration Issue

A Roman Catholic saint who is a figure of devotion for those crossing the border into the United States is attracting believers concerned about the plight of undocumented immigrants. Mike O'Sullivan reports from Los Angeles, where a relic of Saint Toribio has drawn thousands to local churches.
Video

Video US Awards Medal of Honor for Heroics in Bloodiest of Afghan Battles

U.S. combat troops are withdrawing from Afghanistan, on pace to leave the country by the end of this year. But on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama took time to honor a soldier whose actions while under fire in Afghanistan earned him the Medal of Honor. VOA's Jeff Seldin has more from the Pentagon.
Video

Video Ukraine Rebels Surrender MH17 Black Boxes

After days of negotiations, a senior separatist leader handed over two black boxes from an airliner downed over eastern Ukraine to Malaysian experts early Tuesday. While on Monday, the U.N. Security Council unanimously demanded that armed groups controlling the crash site allow safe and unrestricted access to the wreckage.
Video

Video In Cambodia, HIV Diagnosis Brings Deadly Shame

Although HIV/AIDS is now a treatable condition, a positive diagnosis is still a life altering experience. In Cambodia, people living with HIV are often disowned by friends, family and the community. This humiliation can be unbearable. We bring you one Cambodian woman’s struggle to overcome a life tragedy and her own HIV positive diagnosis.

AppleAndroid