News / USA

    Report Sees Change in US Global Status

    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    x
    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    A U.S. intelligence report released Monday predicts Asia’s economic power rising and US dominance declining.  This set off a global intellectual discussion about the conclusions.

    The world will look different in the year 2030.  So says the U.S. Intelligence Director's report on global trends.  

    No longer will the United States be the world superpower, no nation will take the title.  Power will be diffused and reflected in coalitions between countries.

    The report says the Asia economy will surpass North America and Europe, combined.  

    University of Denver International Futures Director Barry Hughes contributed to the report.  

    “That is kind of a reversion to what we saw centuries ago on a global basis, so in a way we are going back to the future.  This is a transformation that none of us know where it’s going to take us,” Hughes said.

    China’s economy, will be the largest in the world and will be 140-percent greater than Japan’s, and India’s will be 16 times larger than Pakistan’s.  

    The report says the global economy will rely more on the health of developing nations, rather than the West.  The Atlantic Council's Banning Garrett says the United States created the climate for that.

    “Although it makes some people in the west kind of frightened or nervous - the rise of China, the rise of India, the rise of Brazil - it should also be seen as a success.  And, I would say, since World War II the U.S. has had a policy of relative decline. ... That was our policy.  We thought it was a good thing not to be the largest power and everyone else was prostate before us,” Garrett said.

    Analysts say the new role for the United States could be more of a mediator, especially to avoid what the report calls a spill over of violence from instability in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.  Analyst Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution.

    “What the world is looking for from the United States ... is protection, in some cases, for the ability to organize.  If you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are looking for is the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what’s been missing is the United States playing that role,” Kagan said.

    The report predicts 60 percent of the global population will live in cities, with an explosion of the middle class.  It attributes this to better access to education, new technology and health care.  

    Organizers say the report is not intended to predict the future, but to follow trends to possible futures.  It includes what it calls “game changers” - variables that could shift the trends - like technology advances that could avert climate change or lead to a reformed Iran.

    “We tend to straight line into the future that the Iran of today will be the Iran of tomorrow.  I really doubt it.  I think the people of Iran really want a middle class life and a more accountable government,” Garrett said.

    The report predicts the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together, leading global cooperation.

    Carolyn Presutti

    Carolyn Presutti is an Emmy and Silver World Medal award winning television correspondent who works out of VOA’s Washington headquarters. She has also won numerous Associated Press TV, Radio, and Multimedia awards, as well as a Clarion for her TV coverage of The Syrian Medical Crisis, Haiti, The Boston Marathon Bombing, Presidential Politics, The Southern Economy, Google Glass & Other Wearables, and the 9/11 Anniversary.

    You May Like

    Clinton, Trump and the 'Woman’s Card'

    Ask supporters of Democratic front-runner in US presidential campaign, and they’ll tell you Republican presidential candidate is playing a dangerous hand

    Russian Censorship Group Seeks Chinese Help to Better Control Internet

    At recent Safe Internet League forum in Moscow, speakers from both nations underscored desire for authorities to further limit and control information online

    Video Makeshift Pakistani School Helps Slum Kids

    Free classes in Islamabad park serve a few of the country’s nearly 25 million out-of-school youths; NGO cites ‘education crisis’

    This forum has been closed.
    Comment Sorting
    Comments
         
    by: Yang from: PRC
    December 12, 2012 2:42 PM
    If US want a stable high employee rate, they should know they can not import from abroad as much as they do currently. In my personal view, if US can not cut down any forms of import from other counties, it will face a big storm even uprising. Because, either stimulation of estate and inflation not only can not resolve the economic problems, but also will bring the other social problem. The resolution of US economic problems should be concerned on 1. cutdown import, stimulate export. 2. explore other undeveloped lands such as africa.

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    Turkish Kurd Islamist Rally Stokes Tensionsi
    X
    April 29, 2016 12:28 AM
    In a sign of the rising power of Islamists in Turkey, more than 100,000 people recently gathered in Diyarbakir, the main city in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast, to mark the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad. The gathering highlighted tensions with the pro-secular Kurdish nationalist movement. Dorian Jones reports from Diyarbakir.
    Video

    Video Turkish Kurd Islamist Rally Stokes Tensions

    In a sign of the rising power of Islamists in Turkey, more than 100,000 people recently gathered in Diyarbakir, the main city in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast, to mark the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad. The gathering highlighted tensions with the pro-secular Kurdish nationalist movement. Dorian Jones reports from Diyarbakir.
    Video

    Video Pakistani School Helps Slum Kids

    Master Mohammad Ayub runs a makeshift school in a public park in Islamabad. Thousands of poor children have benefited from his services over the years, but, as VOA's Ayesha Tanzeem reports, roughly 25 million school-age youths don't get an education in Pakistan.
    Video

    Video Florida’s Weeki Wachee ‘Mermaids’ Make a Splash

    Since 1947, ‘mermaids’ have fascinated tourists at central Florida’s Weeki Wachee Springs State Park with their fluid movements and synchronized ballet. Performing underwater has its challenges, including cold temperatures and a steady current, as VOA’s Lin Yang and Joseph Mok report.
    Video

    Video Somali, African Union Forces Face Resurgent Al-Shabab

    The Islamic State terror group claimed its first attack in Somalia earlier this week, though the claim has not been verified by forces on the ground. Meanwhile, al-Shabab militants have stepped up their attacks as Somalia prepares for elections later this year. Henry Ridgwell reports there are growing frustrations among Somalia’s Western backers over the country’s slow progress in forming its own armed forces to establish security after 25 years of chaos.
    Video

    Video Bangladesh Targeted Killings Spark Wave of Fear

    People in Bangladesh’s capital are expressing deep concern over the brutal attacks that have killed secular blogger, and most recently a gay rights activist and an employee of the U.S. embassy. Xulhaz Mannan, an embassy protocol officer and the editor of the country’s only gay and transgender magazine Roopban; and his friend Mehboob Rabbi Tanoy, a gay rights activist, were hacked to death by five attackers in Mannan’s Dhaka home earlier this month.
    Video

    Video Documentary Tells Tale of Chernobyl Returnees

    Ukraine this week is marking the 30th anniversary of the world's worst nuclear accident, at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Soviet officials at first said little about the accident, but later evacuated a 2,600-square-kilometer "exclusion zone." Some people, though, came back. American directors Holly Morris and Anne Bogart created a documentary about this faithful and brave community. VOA's Tetiana Kharchenko reports from New York on "The Babushkas of Chernobyl." Carol Pearson narrates.
    Video

    Video Nigerians Feel Bite of Buhari Economic Policy

    Despite the global drop in the price of oil, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has refused to allow the country's currency to devalue, leading to a shortage of foreign exchange. Chris Stein reports from Lagos businessmen and consumers are feeling the impact as the country deals with a severe fuel shortage.
    Video

    Video  Return to the Wild

    There’s a growing trend in the United States to let old or underused golf courses revert back to nature. But as Erika Celeste reports from one parcel in Grafton, Ohio, converting 39 hectares of land back to green space is a lot more complicated than just not mowing the fairway.
    Video

    Video West Urges Unity in Libya as Migrant Numbers Soar

    The Italian government says a NATO-led mission aimed at stemming the flow of migrants from Libya to Europe could be up and running by July. There are concerns that the number of migrants could soar as the route through Greece and the Balkans remains blocked. Western powers say the political chaos in Libya is being exploited by people smugglers — and they are pressuring rival groups to come together under the new unity government. VOA's Henry Ridgwell reports.
    Video

    Video Russia’s TV Rain Swims Against Tide in Sea of Kremlin Propaganda

    Russia’s media freedoms have been gradually eroded under President Vladimir Putin as his government has increased state ownership, influence, and restrictions on critical reporting. Television, where most Russians get their news, has been the main target and is now almost completely state controlled. But in the Russian capital, TV Rain stands out as an island in a sea of Kremlin propaganda.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora