News / USA

Report Sees Change in US Global Status

The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
x
The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
A U.S. intelligence report released Monday predicts Asia’s economic power rising and US dominance declining.  This set off a global intellectual discussion about the conclusions.

The world will look different in the year 2030.  So says the U.S. Intelligence Director's report on global trends.  

No longer will the United States be the world superpower, no nation will take the title.  Power will be diffused and reflected in coalitions between countries.

The report says the Asia economy will surpass North America and Europe, combined.  

University of Denver International Futures Director Barry Hughes contributed to the report.  

“That is kind of a reversion to what we saw centuries ago on a global basis, so in a way we are going back to the future.  This is a transformation that none of us know where it’s going to take us,” Hughes said.

China’s economy, will be the largest in the world and will be 140-percent greater than Japan’s, and India’s will be 16 times larger than Pakistan’s.  

The report says the global economy will rely more on the health of developing nations, rather than the West.  The Atlantic Council's Banning Garrett says the United States created the climate for that.

“Although it makes some people in the west kind of frightened or nervous - the rise of China, the rise of India, the rise of Brazil - it should also be seen as a success.  And, I would say, since World War II the U.S. has had a policy of relative decline. ... That was our policy.  We thought it was a good thing not to be the largest power and everyone else was prostate before us,” Garrett said.

Analysts say the new role for the United States could be more of a mediator, especially to avoid what the report calls a spill over of violence from instability in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.  Analyst Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution.

“What the world is looking for from the United States ... is protection, in some cases, for the ability to organize.  If you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are looking for is the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what’s been missing is the United States playing that role,” Kagan said.

The report predicts 60 percent of the global population will live in cities, with an explosion of the middle class.  It attributes this to better access to education, new technology and health care.  

Organizers say the report is not intended to predict the future, but to follow trends to possible futures.  It includes what it calls “game changers” - variables that could shift the trends - like technology advances that could avert climate change or lead to a reformed Iran.

“We tend to straight line into the future that the Iran of today will be the Iran of tomorrow.  I really doubt it.  I think the people of Iran really want a middle class life and a more accountable government,” Garrett said.

The report predicts the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together, leading global cooperation.

Carolyn Presutti

Carolyn Presutti is an Emmy and Silver World Medal award winning television correspondent who works out of VOA’s Washington headquarters.   She has also won numerous Associated Press awards and a Clarion for her coverage of The Syrian Medical Crisis, Haiti, The Boston Marathon Bombing, Presidential Politics, The Southern Economy, and The 9/11 Bombing Anniversary.  In 2013, Carolyn aired exclusive stories on the Asiana plane crash and was named VOA’s chief reporter with Google Glass.

You can follow Carolyn on Twitter at CarolynVOA, on Google Plus and Facebook.

You May Like

Polls Open in Scotland Independence Vote

As race to persuade undecided voters continues, 'No' voters say they believe life in Scotland will slowly improve, 'Yes' vote not worth the risk More

South Africa’s 'Open Mosque' Admits Everyone, Including Critics

Open Mosque founder plans to welcome gay worshipers and allow women to lead prayers More

Ukrainian Activist in Despair About Future of Her Country

IrIna Dovgan, accused of being a spy and tortured by pro-Russian separatists, is appealing to UN Human Rights Council to support her country More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Yang from: PRC
December 12, 2012 2:42 PM
If US want a stable high employee rate, they should know they can not import from abroad as much as they do currently. In my personal view, if US can not cut down any forms of import from other counties, it will face a big storm even uprising. Because, either stimulation of estate and inflation not only can not resolve the economic problems, but also will bring the other social problem. The resolution of US economic problems should be concerned on 1. cutdown import, stimulate export. 2. explore other undeveloped lands such as africa.

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
A Dinosaur Fit for Land and Wateri
X
September 17, 2014 8:44 PM
Residents and tourists in Washington D.C. can now examine a life-size replica of an unusual dinosaur that lived almost a hundred million years ago in northern Africa. Scientists say studying the behemoth named Spinosaurus helps them better understand how some prehistoric animals adapted to life on land and in water. The Spinosaurus replica is on display at the National Geographic museum. VOA’s George Putic has more.
Video

Video A Dinosaur Fit for Land and Water

Residents and tourists in Washington D.C. can now examine a life-size replica of an unusual dinosaur that lived almost a hundred million years ago in northern Africa. Scientists say studying the behemoth named Spinosaurus helps them better understand how some prehistoric animals adapted to life on land and in water. The Spinosaurus replica is on display at the National Geographic museum. VOA’s George Putic has more.
Video

Video Iraqi Kurdistan Church Helps Christian Children Cope find shelter in churches in the Kurdish capital, Irbil

In the past six weeks, tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians have been forced to flee their homes by Islamic State militants and find shelter in churches in the Kurdish capital, Irbil. Despite U.S. airstrikes in the region, the prospect of people returning home is still very low and concerns are starting to grow over the impact this is having on the displaced youth. Sebastian Meyer reports from Irbil on how one church is coping.
Video

Video NASA Picks Boeing, SpaceX to Carry Astronauts Into Space

The U.S. space agency, NASA, has chosen Boeing and SpaceX companies to build the next generation of spacecraft that will carry U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station by the year 2017. The deal with private industry enables NASA to end its dependence on Russia to send space crews into low Earth orbit and back. Zlatica Hoke has more.
Video

Video Future of Ukrainian Former President's Estate Uncertain

More than six months after Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych fled revolution to Russia, authorities have yet to gain control of his palatial estate. Protesters occupy the grounds and opened it to tourists but they are also refusing to turn it over to the state. VOA's Daniel Schearf reports from Mezhigirya, just north of Kyiv.
Video

Video China Muslims Work to Change Perceptions After Knife Attacks

China says its has sentenced three men to death and one woman to life in prison for a deadly knife attack in March that left more than 30 dead and 140 injured. Beijing says Muslim militants from China's restive western region of Xinjiang carried out the attacks. Now, more than six months after the incident, residents in the city are still coping with the aftermath. VOA's Bill Ide has more from Kunming.
Video

Video Enviropreneur Seeks to Save the Environment, Empower the Community

Lorna Rutto, a former banker, is now an ‘enviropreneur’ - turning plastic waste into furniture and fences discusses the challenges she faces in Africa with raw materials and the environment.
Video

Video West Trades Accusations Over Ransoms

As world leaders try to forge a common response to the threat posed by Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, there is simmering tension over differing policies on paying ransoms. In the past month, the jihadist group has beheaded two Americans and one Briton. Both countries refuse to pay ransom money. As Henry Ridgwell reports for VOA from London, there is uncertainty in the approach of some other European nations.
Video

Video Scotland Independence Bid Stokes Global Interest

The people of Scotland are preparing to vote on whether to become independent and break away from the rest of Britain, in a referendum being watched carefully in many other countries. Some see it as a risky experiment; while others hope a successful vote for independence might energize their own separatist demands. Foreign immigrants to Scotland have a front row seat for the vote. VOA’s Henry Ridgwell spoke to some of them in Edinburgh.


Carnage and mayhem are part of daily life in northern Nigeria, the result of a terror campaign by the Islamist group Boko Haram. Fears are growing that Nigeria’s government may not know how to counter it, and may be making things worse. More

AppleAndroid