News / USA

    Report Sees Change in US Global Status

    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    x
    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    The White House in Washington, Oct. 29,2012
    A U.S. intelligence report released Monday predicts Asia’s economic power rising and US dominance declining.  This set off a global intellectual discussion about the conclusions.

    The world will look different in the year 2030.  So says the U.S. Intelligence Director's report on global trends.  

    No longer will the United States be the world superpower, no nation will take the title.  Power will be diffused and reflected in coalitions between countries.

    The report says the Asia economy will surpass North America and Europe, combined.  

    University of Denver International Futures Director Barry Hughes contributed to the report.  

    “That is kind of a reversion to what we saw centuries ago on a global basis, so in a way we are going back to the future.  This is a transformation that none of us know where it’s going to take us,” Hughes said.

    China’s economy, will be the largest in the world and will be 140-percent greater than Japan’s, and India’s will be 16 times larger than Pakistan’s.  

    The report says the global economy will rely more on the health of developing nations, rather than the West.  The Atlantic Council's Banning Garrett says the United States created the climate for that.

    “Although it makes some people in the west kind of frightened or nervous - the rise of China, the rise of India, the rise of Brazil - it should also be seen as a success.  And, I would say, since World War II the U.S. has had a policy of relative decline. ... That was our policy.  We thought it was a good thing not to be the largest power and everyone else was prostate before us,” Garrett said.

    Analysts say the new role for the United States could be more of a mediator, especially to avoid what the report calls a spill over of violence from instability in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.  Analyst Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution.

    “What the world is looking for from the United States ... is protection, in some cases, for the ability to organize.  If you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are looking for is the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what’s been missing is the United States playing that role,” Kagan said.

    The report predicts 60 percent of the global population will live in cities, with an explosion of the middle class.  It attributes this to better access to education, new technology and health care.  

    Organizers say the report is not intended to predict the future, but to follow trends to possible futures.  It includes what it calls “game changers” - variables that could shift the trends - like technology advances that could avert climate change or lead to a reformed Iran.

    “We tend to straight line into the future that the Iran of today will be the Iran of tomorrow.  I really doubt it.  I think the people of Iran really want a middle class life and a more accountable government,” Garrett said.

    The report predicts the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together, leading global cooperation.

    Carolyn Presutti

    Carolyn Presutti is an Emmy and Silver World Medal award winning television correspondent who works out of VOA’s Washington headquarters. She has also won numerous Associated Press TV, Radio, and Multimedia awards, as well as a Clarion for her TV coverage of The Syrian Medical Crisis, Haiti, The Boston Marathon Bombing, Presidential Politics, The Southern Economy, Google Glass & Other Wearables, and the 9/11 Anniversary.

    You May Like

    South Sudan Sends First Ever Official Olympic Team to Rio

    VOA caught up with Santino Kenyi, 16, one of three athletes who will compete in this year's summer games in Brazil

    Arrest of Malawi's 'Hyena' Man Highlights Clash of Ritual, Health and Women's Rights

    Ritual practice of deflowering young girls is blamed for spreading deadly AIDS virus

    Immigrant Delegate Marvels at Democratic Process

    VOA finds things Americans take for granted are special to foreigners

    This forum has been closed.
    Comment Sorting
    Comments
         
    by: Yang from: PRC
    December 12, 2012 2:42 PM
    If US want a stable high employee rate, they should know they can not import from abroad as much as they do currently. In my personal view, if US can not cut down any forms of import from other counties, it will face a big storm even uprising. Because, either stimulation of estate and inflation not only can not resolve the economic problems, but also will bring the other social problem. The resolution of US economic problems should be concerned on 1. cutdown import, stimulate export. 2. explore other undeveloped lands such as africa.

    Featured Videos

    Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
    Immigrant Delegate Marvels at Democratic Processi
    X
    Katherine Gypson
    July 27, 2016 6:21 PM
    It’s been a bitter and divisive election season – but first time Indian-American delegate Dr. Shashi Gupta headed to the Democratic National Convention with a sense of hope. VOA’s Katherine Gypson followed this immigrant with the love of U.S. politics all the way to Philadelphia.
    Video

    Video Immigrant Delegate Marvels at Democratic Process

    It’s been a bitter and divisive election season – but first time Indian-American delegate Dr. Shashi Gupta headed to the Democratic National Convention with a sense of hope. VOA’s Katherine Gypson followed this immigrant with the love of U.S. politics all the way to Philadelphia.
    Video

    Video A Life of Fighting Back: Hillary Clinton Shatters Glass Ceiling

    Hillary Clinton made history Thursday, overcoming personal and political setbacks to become the first woman to win the presidential nomination of a major U.S. political party. If she wins in November, she will go from “first lady” to U.S. Senator from New York, to Secretary of State, to “Madam President.” Polls show Clinton is both beloved and despised. White House Correspondent Cindy Saine takes a look at the life of the woman both supporters and detractors agree is a fighter for the ages.
    Video

    Video Dutch Entrepreneurs Turn Rainwater Into Beer

    June has been recorded as one of the wettest months in more than a century in many parts of Europe. To a group of entrepreneurs in Amsterdam the rain came as a blessing, as they used the extra water to brew beer. Serginho Roosblad has more to the story.
    Video

    Video First Time Delegate’s First Day Frustrations

    With thousands of people filling the streets of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania for the 2016 Democratic National Convention, VOA’s Kane Farabaugh narrowed in on one delegate as she made her first trip to a national party convention. It was a day that was anything but routine for this United States military veteran.
    Video

    Video Commerce Thrives on US-Mexico Border

    At the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia this week, the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, is expected to attack proposals made by her opponent, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Last Friday, President Barack Obama hosted his Mexican counterpart, President Enrique Peña Nieto, to underscore the good relations between the two countries. VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from Tucson.
    Video

    Video Film Helps Save Ethiopian Children Thought to be Cursed

    'Omo Child' looks at effort of African man to stop killings of ‘mingi’ children
    Video

    Video London’s Financial Crown at Risk as Rivals Eye Brexit Opportunities

    By most measures, London rivals New York as the only true global financial center. But Britain’s vote to leave the European Union – so-called ‘Brexit’ – means the city could lose its right to sell services tariff-free across the bloc, risking its position as Europe’s financial headquarters. Already some banks have said they may shift operations to the mainland. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
    Video

    Video Recycling Lifeline for Lebanon’s Last Glassblowers

    In a small Lebanese coastal town, one family is preserving a craft that stretches back millennia. The art of glass blowing was developed by Phoenicians in the region, and the Khalifehs say they are the only ones keeping the skill alive in Lebanon. But despite teaming up with an eco-entrepreneur and receiving an unexpected boost from the country’s recent trash crisis the future remains uncertain. John Owens reports from Sarafand.
    Video

    Video Migrants Continue to Risk Lives Crossing US Border from Mexico

    In his speech Thursday before the Republican National Convention, the party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump, reiterated his proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if elected. Polls show a large percentage of Americans support better control of the nation's southwestern border, but as VOA’s Greg Flakus reports from the border town of Nogales in the Mexican state of Sonora, the situation faced by people trying to cross the border is already daunting.
    Video

    Video In State of Emergency, Turkey’s Erdogan Focuses on Spiritual Movement

    The state of emergency that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared is giving him even more power to expand a purge that has seen an estimated 60,000 people either arrested or suspended from their jobs. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports from Istanbul.
    Video

    Video Calm the Waters: US Doubles Down Diplomatic Efforts in ASEAN Meetings

    The United States is redoubling diplomatic efforts and looking to upcoming regional meetings to calm the waters after an international tribunal invalidated the legal basis of Beijing's extensive claims in the South China Sea. VOA State Department correspondent Nike Ching has the story.
    Video

    Video Scientists in Poland Race to Save Honeybees

    Honeybees are in danger worldwide. Causes of what's known as colony collapse disorder range from pesticides and loss of habitat to infections. But scientists in Poland say they are on track to finding a cure for one of the diseases. VOA’s George Putic reports.

    Special Report

    Adrift The Invisible African Diaspora