News / USA

US Political Forecast: More Gridlock

President Barack Obama speaks about the economy and transportation at Georgetown Waterfront Park in Washington, July 1, 2014.
President Barack Obama speaks about the economy and transportation at Georgetown Waterfront Park in Washington, July 1, 2014.

Americans are off to the beach, the mountains and even local rooftops to celebrate our 238th birthday. But when it comes to our current political landscape, it’s hard to find much to celebrate.

Washington remains mired in political gridlock and the outlook for the remainder of the Obama presidency is far from rosy. The latest poll numbers for President Barack Obama no doubt depress even his most loyal Democratic supporters.  In the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, only 40 percent approve of his performance. Quinnipiac also asked more than 1,400 voters nationwide who has been the worst president since World War II and, unfortunately for the White House, Obama was at the top (or bottom, depending how you look at it) of the list.

Thirty-three percent of those surveyed said Obama was the worst president in this period, followed by former President George W. Bush at 28 percent and former President Richard Nixon with 13 percent. If you are old enough to have lived through the Watergate period of the 1970s, it’s kind of amazing to see that voters today place not one but two presidents below him on the ratings scale.  Of course, it’s always wise to remember what pollsters say, that these surveys are nothing more than a snapshot in time often prone to wild swings as the years go by. Bush surely hopes that is the case. Obama may be having some similar thoughts as well.

So who do people rate as the best presidents post-World War II? The Quinnipiac survey found former President Ronald Reagan in the top spot with 35 percent, followed by former President Bill Clinton at 18 percent and former President John Kennedy at 15 percent. Clinton in particular remains an amazing political phenomenon, a proverbial cat with nine lives who rivals Lazarus with his ability to rise from the political dead.

Clinton left office in early 2001, but he remains a potent force on the U.S. political scene today and could be an enormous help if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton decides to run for president in 2016. Remember, Clinton came out of nowhere to win the 1992 Democratic Party nomination, beating an incumbent president (George H.W. Bush) who had led the country to a decisive military victory in the first Gulf War. Clinton then survived the Republican Revolution of 1994 to bounce back and win re-election in 1996. 

Most amazing of all was that Clinton’s popularity actually grew once he left office despite the fact he was only the second U.S. president impeached by Congress – later acquitted by the Senate.

Hardening positions and tough rhetoric

The political clashes of the 1990s between the likes of Bill Clinton and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich are starting to look like the good old days compared to what is happening now. Obama is increasingly frustrated with Republicans efforts to either block his agenda in Congress or not act on it, with immigration reform being the latest example. House Speaker John Boehner says Republicans intend to sue the president, and though the specifics aren’t clear yet, the thrust appears to be an effort to stop the president from acting unilaterally through executive orders.

Obama has been highlighting the differences in recent speeches. He told a crowd in Minneapolis that Republicans "aren’t doing anything and then they are mad that I am doing something." The president seems intent on taking some action on the immigration front, especially in light of the situation on the southern border and the influx of tens of thousands of young illegal immigrants, many from Central America. Obama seemed to dare Republican congressional leaders to try and stop him during a recent speech in Washington with a simple challenge: “So sue me.”

Republicans will no doubt use this tougher rhetoric as fodder to drive conservatives to the polls this November for the midterm congressional elections.  Conservative talk show hosts and some activists have long driven a narrative that the Obama administration’s unilateral actions fit nicely into the category of “an imperial presidency”, a possible clarion call to Tea Party supporters and Obama critics to turn out in big numbers in November.

Focus on the Midterms

Given that the chances for agreement on substantial legislation in Congress are now fleeting, both sides are ramping up their arguments for midterm voters.  Democrats start with a huge disadvantage.  A lot of their folks are much less inclined to turn out in midterm congressional elections than they are for a presidential contest. 

Obama and other Democrats are now heavily focused on encouraging core Democratic supporters, especially what they like to call the “rising electorate”, to get off their rumps and out to the polls in November.  That rising electorate includes younger voters, especially unmarried women, as well as Hispanic and Asian-American voters.  In fact, many Democrats see motivating younger unmarried women as the key to boosting turnout enough that it could save their majority in the U.S. Senate.

There is general consensus among political analysts and pundit-types that Republicans appear to have a big advantage in holding on to their majority in the House of Representatives. In fact, by some estimates, they could add seats. The real battle is for control of the Senate, where 36 of the 100 seats are at stake. Republicans need to gain six Democratic seats to reclaim a majority.  That would normally be a tall order in any election year but this year there are far more Democratic seats at stake than Republican, and many of the Democratic seats are in states where Republicans have an advantage. 

Most analysts right now give the Republicans an excellent chance of winning the six seats they need.  It may be close in the end, but most of the experts say that Democratic control of the Senate is now teetering on a knife’s edge.

Foreign policy impact

One of the main drivers of Obama’s weakening approval numbers is declining support for his handling of foreign policy. A couple of recent polls have it down to only 37 percent, undoubtedly due in part to what has been taking place in Iraq, Ukraine and Afghanistan. The latest Quinnipiac poll found that 57 percent of those asked disapproved of the president’s handling of Iraq. But in the same poll, 51 percent also blamed George W. Bush more than Obama for the current situation in Iraq and 61 percent now say it was wrong for the U.S. to have invaded back in 2003. As to further U.S. involvement in Iraq, Americans say it is not in the national interest by a margin of 56 to 39 percent.

Obama gets better marks on his handling of Afghanistan.  Forty-six percent say the pace of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is “about right”, 26 percent say it is too fast and 20 percent say it’s not fast enough.

Foreign policy had been one of the president’s strengths and one of the reasons he won re-election two years ago. But now poor presidential approval ratings on both foreign policy and the economy could hurt Democrats at the polls this November. 

Analysts have long pointed out that there is usually a connection between presidential approval ratings and the fate of the president’s party in midterm elections. Right now, things are not looking good for the president or for Democrats in November, and time is running out to try to alter the political landscape.

You May Like

Tired of Waiting, South Africans Demand Change ‘Now’

With chronic poverty and lack of basic services largely fueling recent xenophobic attacks, many in Rainbow Nation say it’s time for government to act More

Challenges Ahead for China's Development Plans in Pakistan

Planned $46 billion in energy and infrastructure investments in Pakistan are aimed at transforming the country into a regional hub for trade and investment More

'Forbidden City' Revisits Little Known Era of Asian-American Entertainment

Little-known chapter of entertainment history captured in 80s documentary is revisited in new digitally remastered format and book More

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: meanbill from: USA
July 04, 2014 11:14 AM
POLITICAL GRIDLOCK means democracy is working, doesn't it?..... You don't have political gridlock in communist countries, Socialist countries, Dictatorships, or Monarchies, do you?.... Just call it Democracy at work, where all side get to voice their opinions, and their vocal opinions mean something, doesn't it?
In Response

by: Faubet from: France
July 04, 2014 5:18 PM
Hi there,
Hopefully gridlocks exists even in socialist countries like France, Germany,Italy when they have a socialist govt, as well as in Monarchies like UK,Spain,Denmark or Belgium.
You cannot compareSocialist countries or Monarchies to Dictatorships or communist countries

Featured Videos

Your JavaScript is turned off or you have an old version of Adobe's Flash Player. Get the latest Flash player.
Cinema That Crosses Borders Showcased at Tribeca Film Festivali
X
April 24, 2015 4:09 AM
Among the nearly 100 feature length films being shown at this year’s Tribeca Film Festival in New York City are more than 20 documentaries and features with international appeal, from a film about a Congolese businessman in China, to documentaries shot in Pakistan and diaspora communities in the U.S., to a poetic look at disaffected South African youth. VOA’s Carolyn Weaver has more.
Video

Video Cinema That Crosses Borders Showcased at Tribeca Film Festival

Among the nearly 100 feature length films being shown at this year’s Tribeca Film Festival in New York City are more than 20 documentaries and features with international appeal, from a film about a Congolese businessman in China, to documentaries shot in Pakistan and diaspora communities in the U.S., to a poetic look at disaffected South African youth. VOA’s Carolyn Weaver has more.
Video

Video UN Confronts Threat of Young Radicals

The radicalization and recruitment of young people into Islamist extremist groups has become a growing challenge for governments worldwide. On Thursday, the U.N. Security Council heard from experts on the issue, which has become a potent threat to international peace and security. VOA’s Margaret Besheer reports.
Video

Video Growing Numbers of Turks Discover Armenian Ancestry

In a climate of improved tolerance, growing numbers of people in Turkey are discovering their grandmothers were Armenian. Hundreds of thousands of Armenians escaped the mass deportations and slaughter of the early 1900's by forced conversion to Islam. Or, Armenian children were taken in by Turkish families and assimilated. Now their stories are increasingly being heard. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul that the revelations are viewed as an important step.
Video

Video Migrants Trek Through Western Balkans to Reach EU

Migrants from Africa and other places are finding different routes into the European Union in search of a better life. The Associated Press followed one clandestine group to document their trek through the western Balkans to Hungary. Zlatica Hoke reports that the migrants started using that route about four years ago. Since then, it has become the second-most popular path into Western Europe, after the option of sailing from North Africa to Italy.
Video

Video TIME Magazine Honors Activists, Pioneers Seen as Influential

TIME Magazine has released its list of celebrities, leaders and activists, whom it deems the world’s “most influential” in 2015. VOA's Ramon Taylor reports from New York.
Video

Video US Businesses See Cuba as New Frontier

The Obama administration's opening toward Cuba is giving U.S. companies hope they'll be able to do business in Cuba despite the continuation of the U.S. economic embargo against the communist nation. Some American companies have been able to export some products to Cuba, but the recent lifting of Cuba's terrorism designation could relax other restrictions. As VOA's Daniela Schrier reports, corporate heavy hitters are lining up to head across the Florida Straits - though experts urge caution.
Video

Video Kenya Launches Police Recruitment Drive After Terror Attacks

Kenya launched a major police recruitment drive this week as part of a large-scale effort to boost security following a recent spate of terror attacks. VOA’s Gabe Joselow reports that allegations of corruption in the process are raising old concerns about the integrity of Kenya’s security forces.
Video

Video Japan, China in Race for Asia High-Speed Rail Projects

A lucrative competition is underway in Asia for billions of dollars in high-speed rail projects. Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia Thailand and Vietnam are among the countries planning to move onto the fast track. They are negotiating with Japan and the upstart Chinese who are locked in a duel to revolutionize transportation across Asia. VOA Correspondent Steve Herman in Bangkok has details.
Video

Video Scientists: Mosquitoes Attracted By Our Genes

Some people always seem to get bitten by mosquitoes more than others. Now, scientists have proved that is really the case - and they say it’s all because of genes. It’s hoped the research might lead to new preventative treatments for diseases like malaria, as Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
Video

Video Bible Museum Coming to Washington DC

Washington is the center of American political power and also home to some of the nation’s most visited museums. A new one that will showcase the Bible has skeptics questioning the motives of its conservative Christian funders. VOA religion correspondent Jerome Socolovsky reports.
Video

Video Armenia and Politics of Word 'Genocide'

A century ago this April, hundreds of thousands of Armenians of the Turkish Ottoman empire were deported and massacred, and their culture erased from their traditional lands. While broadly accepted by the U.N. and at least 20 countries as “genocide”, the United States and Turkey have resisted using that word to describe the atrocities that stretched from 1915 to 1923. But Armenians have never forgotten.
Video

Video Afghan First Lady Pledges No Roll Back on Women's Rights

Afghan First Lady Rula Ghani, named one of Time's 100 Most Influential, says women should take part in talks with Taliban. VOA's Rokhsar Azamee has more from Kabul.
Video

Video Keeping Washington Airspace Safe Is Tall Order

Being the home of all three branches of the U.S. federal government makes Washington, D.C. the prime target for those who want to make their messages and ideas heard. Unfortunately, many of them choose to deliver them in unorthodox ways, including from the air, as a recent incident clearly showed involving a gyrocopter landing on the Capitol’s West Lawn. VOA's George Putic has more.
Video

Video New Brain Mapping Techniques Could Ease Chronic Pain

From Boulder, Colorado, Shelley Schlender reports that new methods for mapping pain in the brain are providing validation for chronic pain and might someday guide better treatment.
Video

Video Hope, Prayer Enter Fight Against S. Africa Xenophobia

South Africa has been swept by disturbing attacks on foreign nationals. Some blame the attacks on a legacy of colonialism, while others say the economy is to blame. Whatever the cause, ordinary South Africans - and South African residents from around the world - say they're praying for the siege of violence to end. Anita Powell reports from Johannesburg.

VOA Blogs