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Republicans Focus on Defending Senate in Campaign's Last Week 


Democratic congressional candidate Mike Levin talks with his wife, Chrissy Levin, in front of supporters at the 2018 California Democrats State Convention, Feb. 24, 2018, in San Diego. "Many voters are looking for someone who will be a check [on the administration] and not just a rubber stamp," he said. Levin is seeking the open seat in California's 49th District. 
Democratic congressional candidate Mike Levin talks with his wife, Chrissy Levin, in front of supporters at the 2018 California Democrats State Convention, Feb. 24, 2018, in San Diego. "Many voters are looking for someone who will be a check [on the administration] and not just a rubber stamp," he said. Levin is seeking the open seat in California's 49th District. 

Republican campaigns took a defensive approach a week before elections to determine control of the U.S. Congress, with the party spending more to try to hold on to previously secure House seats and President Donald Trump preparing a six-day trip focused on Senate races.

The National Republican Congressional Committee on Tuesday launched a wave of ads targeting 14 House of Representatives races, including defenses of eight incumbents and four currently Republican-held seats whose current officeholders are not running in the Nov. 6 elections.

Trump's planned blitz of Senate battleground states, including Florida, Missouri and Tennessee, follows an NBC/Marist opinion poll showing the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Arizona taking a 6 percentage-point lead and a Quinnipiac University Poll showing Democrat Beto O'Rourke pulling closer to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas.

A Reuters analysis of a trio of political forecasting groups showed the picture in the House brightening for Democrats.

Of 65 races seen as competitive or leaning against the incumbent party, the odds of a Democratic victory had increased in 48 as of Tuesday in the eyes of at least one of the three of political forecasting groups — Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics — according to the Reuters analysis.

Debra Haaland, a Democratic candidate for Congress, speaks at her Albuquerque, N.M., headquarters, June 4, 2018. She won her party's nomination and will vie for the state's 1st District seat.
Debra Haaland, a Democratic candidate for Congress, speaks at her Albuquerque, N.M., headquarters, June 4, 2018. She won her party's nomination and will vie for the state's 1st District seat.

Democrats would need a net gain of 23 seats in the House and two in the Senate to take majorities away from Trump's fellow Republicans, which would put them in position to oppose the president's legislative agenda. Opinion polls and political forecasters generally show Democrats having a strong chance of winning a House majority, with Republicans expected to keep control of the Senate.

Early voting

Early voting has surged nationwide, with eight states already recording more ballots cast ahead of Election Day than in all of 2014, the last midterm congressional election cycle, according to University of Florida researchers.

"Many voters are looking for someone who will be a check and not just a rubber stamp," said Mike Levin, Democratic candidate in California's 49th congressional district, which encompasses a wealthy suburban stretch between Los Angeles and San Diego.

Republican Darrell Issa currently represents the district but is not seeking re-election.

Until recently solidly Republican, the district has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won it by 6 percentage points in 2012, but Democrat Hillary Clinton won it by 7 percentage points in 2016, a swing of 13 percentage points. This year, opinion polls give Levin an edge over his Republican rival, Diane Harkey.

"We talk a lot about the need to have a check on this administration," Levin said in an interview at a campaign office in San Clemente.

The seat is among more than 40 that were held by Republicans who are not running for re-election, the highest number since at least 1930.

Safer districts

Republicans are focusing their efforts on conservative districts Trump won by double-digit margins in 2016, particularly in rural areas. That has allowed Democrats to gain ground in more racially diverse urban and suburban districts like the one Issa represents.

President Donald Trump listens as Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., speaks during a rally at Southern Illinois Airport, Oct. 27, 2018, in Murphysboro, Ill.
President Donald Trump listens as Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., speaks during a rally at Southern Illinois Airport, Oct. 27, 2018, in Murphysboro, Ill.

In conservative areas where Trump remains popular, from upstate New York to southern Illinois, several Republican incumbents said they saw the odds as moving in their favor.

They said their chances have been boosted by the bruising debate around Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who was narrowly confirmed by the Senate after denying a sexual assault allegation.

Anger over his contentious, protest-marred confirmation hearings and sympathy among conservatives toward Kavanaugh have boosted the enthusiasm of the Republican base, particularly in rural areas, candidates and strategists said.

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    Reuters

    Reuters is a news agency founded in 1851 and owned by the Thomson Reuters Corporation based in Toronto, Canada. One of the world's largest wire services, it provides financial news as well as international coverage in over 16 languages to more than 1000 newspapers and 750 broadcasters around the globe.

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