For India, the return of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League party to the helm in Bangladesh for a fourth consecutive term is a welcome development, according to analysts.
While the United States and Britain have said the recent elections that extended Hasina’s rule in the South Asian country were not credible, free or fair, New Delhi considers her a close ally in a neighborhood where its military confronts both Pakistan and China along hostile, disputed borders.
That is why a friendly government in Bangladesh, with which India shares a long land border, is crucial to India’s security, according to Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
In this photograph released by Bangladesh Prime Minister's office, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, left, arrives to address a press conference following her election victory in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Jan. 8, 2024.
“India faced a lot of turbulence in Dhaka-Delhi ties before Hasina came to power, but since taking office in 2009, she has been a steadfast ally,” said Pant. “Given the challenging neighborhood that India lives in where it faces a lot of headwinds like China’s increasing presence, it is natural for India to want her to continue in power.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to congratulate Sheikh Hasina after she secured a fourth consecutive term.
“We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh,” he wrote on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. For her part, Hasina called India “a great friend” at a news conference held after her victory.
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina checks her watch as she waits outside a polling station for the official opening time to cast her vote in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Jan. 7, 2024.
For India, the topmost priority is its strategic interests, said analysts, who point out that Hasina has adroitly balanced ties with both India and China. Beijing has significantly expanded its footprint in small South Asian countries with its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
Dhaka joined Beijing’s BRI in 2016. China is building infrastructure that includes bridges, power plants and rail projects in Bangladesh. China is also Bangladesh’s key supplier of military hardware.
“Some projects that are dual use in nature have raised questions in New Delhi. Beijing is building a submarine base in Bangladesh and has supplied two submarines to Dhaka,” according to Srikanth Kondapalli, dean at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. "Any military cooperation between them will be a matter of concern.”
However, he pointed out that Bangladesh “describes its partnership with China as a developmental partnership and has been generally mindful of Indian sensitivities.”
The Bay of Bengal where the submarine base is taking shape is a key waterway in the Indian Ocean, where India, along with the United States and other countries, are working together to deter China.
Dhaka has allayed New Delhi’s concerns, saying its ties with China are friendly but primarily focused on economic linkages.
“We are very prudent in receiving any aid or funds. So people should not be afraid that Bangladesh would succumb to the Chinese," Bangladesh’s foreign minister, Abdul Momen, said in an interview to India Today television after the polls.
Analysts said that Hasina’s continuation in Bangladesh is a relief for New Delhi, which recently saw a pro-China government take office in the Maldives, straining ties with the archipelago nation.
“There has been no overt pro-China, anti-India discourse in Bangladesh as we saw in Sri Lanka in the past or in Maldives at present,” according to Sankalp Gurjar, assistant professor in geopolitics and international relations at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
Bangladesh is also crucial to the security of India’s remote northeastern states where insurgent groups used to be active. They often took sanctuary in Bangladesh, which shares borders with some of these states.
“Since Hasina has come to power, India’s northeastern problems have eased because she has not allowed Bangladesh to be used by such groups,” according to Gurjar.
Questions have been raised over the credibility of Hasina’s victory following the elections the opposition boycotted. Thousands of opposition activists were jailed in the run-up to the polls, raising concerns of democratic backsliding and authoritarianism.
FILE - Activists of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party participate in a rally demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Oct. 28, 2023.
In a statement, the U.S. State Department said, “The United States shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair and we regret that not all parties participated.”
Despite the divergent stands taken by New Delhi and Washington, India is urging Western countries to work with Bangladesh.
“India will have to maintain a delicate balance, but New Delhi is playing the role of a facilitator between Hasina and Western countries,” according to Pant. “It is telling the U.S. that marginalizing or ignoring Bangladesh would only make China a much more central player in the country, which would not serve either India’s or Western interests.”