The latest economic data indicate the U.S. economy is growing at the slowest rate in three years. The GDP or gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all goods and services produced in the country, increased at a disappointing 0.7 percent annual rate, according to new government estimates released Friday. That’s the weakest performance since 2014, as consumer spending stayed flat and business inventories remained small.
Analysts say that’s bound to be a disappointment to U.S. President Donald Trump who predicted strong economic growth on day one, once he took over the White House.
“Remember candidate Trump talked about GDP of about 5 percent and paraphrasing, perhaps something much, much stronger," said Bankrate.com senior analyst Mark Hamrick.
“Most economists believe the track for the U.S. economy for the intermediate future is going to be very familiar to what has been seen over the last number of years, and that’s somewhere between one and probably 2.5 percent on an annual basis.”
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2016. But economists say first quarter estimates tend to be notoriously low for a number of reasons.
“In some years it’s been because of bad weather that kept people in their homes, keeping them from purchasing things but it’s also believed to be somewhat flawed statistically -- meaning that what’s actually happening in the economy isn’t being perfectly captured by government statistics," Hamrick tells VOA. "It ends up being an estimate and most of them are not perfect”.
Most economists say the first quarter estimate should not be seen as a true measure of U.S. economic health.
Other indicators suggest a more positive outlook. The U.S. unemployment rate is near a 10-year low at 4.5 percent, consumer and business sentiment are rising and major U.S. stock indexes are near record highs.