Transcript:
The Inside Story: The Year Ahead
Episode 124 January 11, 2024
Show Open:
This week on The Inside Story…
Nearly half the world holds nationwide elections…
Perhaps none more impactful than the presidential race in The United States.
We look at how newsrooms globally are preparing for a challenging year… confronting disinformation and safety.
We continue our coverage of conflicts in Israel and Gaza, and between Russia and Ukraine.
Plus we see what's in store for space exploration.
Now... on The Inside Story... The Year Ahead.
The Inside Story:
KATHERINE GYPSON, VOA Congressional Correspondent:
Hello, I’m Katherine Gypson VOA’s Congressional Correspondent and today we’re going to take this opportunity to look at what’s coming in the year ahead... and look back at how we got here.
From elections to war to the continuing march of technology, 2024, for many holds promise, and for some, more than a bit of anxiety.
All this and more on today’s Inside Story.
We begin with what will be history’s biggest year for elections, roughly half of the world will have the chance to choose new leadership, perhaps none will be more consequential than the presidential election in the United States.
Campaigning is already well underway. Most of the attention is on current incumbent, Democrat Joe Biden, and his predecessor whom he defeated in 2020, Republican Donald Trump.
From the White House, VOA’s Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman reports on what increasingly appears to be a Biden-Trump rematch.
Steve Herman, VOA Chief National Correspondent:
Many of Donald Trump’s supporters continue to falsely believe that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election and that the former president is the victim of political persecution.
Half of the Republican Party’s likely voters tell pollsters they still support Trump over his primary challengers. This comes as no surprise to those who study Trump’s rhetoric, including communications professor Jennifer Mercieca.
Jennifer Mercieca, Texas A&M University Communications Professor:
When he claims that he was doing everything right and he was the greatest president who's ever existed, they are inclined to believe that. And, so, he does seem like the strong leader that he promises them that he is.
Steve Herman:
Most of the other candidates for the Republican nomination have limited their criticism of Trump.
That strategy is in line with polls finding that while the party’s base is open to an alternative to the former president, that does not include someone who is anti-Trump.
Republican presidential contender Nikki Haley was Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.
Nikki Haley, Republican Presidential Nominee Candidate:
What we need in a president is someone who knows the difference between good and evil, who knows the difference between right and wrong.
Steve Herman:
President Biden faces only token opposition from other Democrats and is campaigning largely on his economic record.
President Joe Biden:
We've created 14 million new jobs, including 800,000 manufacturing jobs. The unemployment rate has stayed below four percent -- below four percent for the longest period, longest stretch in over 50 years. And wages for working families have gone up, while inflation has come down 65%.
Steve Herman:
Polls show that many voters, including Democrats, question how effective a leader Biden might be by the end of a second term, when he would be 86 years old.
Jennifer Mercieca, Texas A&M University Communications Professor:
He can't shake the fact that people feel like he's too old or that they feel like the economy isn't going great.
Steve Herman:
Trump and Biden both say they’re running to save America from the existential threats posed by the other.
Donald Trump, Former President:
Our country is going to hell. Our country is being destroyed. Together, we will take on the ultra-left-wing liars, losers, creeps, perverts and freaks who are devouring the future of this state like a swarm of locusts.
Steve Herman:
Biden says part of why he is running again is to prevent Trump from getting back to the White House.
President Joe Biden:
Look, he is running, and I have to run.
Steve Herman:
The first electoral tests for Trump come in January with the Iowa caucuses on the 15th and the New Hampshire primary on the 23rd. Republicans nominate their presidential
candidate in Milwaukee in July. Democrats expect to renominate Biden in Chicago in August.
Steve Herman, VOA News, at the White House.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Looking ahead, 2024 will be an extraordinary test of democracy worldwide. Over a billion individuals in numerous countries will be dependent on their votes to select their leaders. According to our correspondent Henry Ridgwell, the outcome of their choices this year will shape the global outlook for years to come.
HENRY RIDGWELL, Reporting for VOA:
Sheikh Hasina won a fifth term as prime minister of Bangladesh Saturday - the first in a series of major elections across the world this year.
Taiwan will hold its presidential election on January 13. China’s threat to retake the island by force looms over the vote.
Indonesia is set to choose a new president next month to rule the nation of 277 million people – making it one of the world’s biggest votes held on a single day.
Pakistan will hold parliamentary elections in February – where opposition leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan remains jailed on charges of leaking state secrets, which he denies.
Russians will vote in presidential elections in March – and incumbent Vladimir Putin is all but certain to win.
Ian Bond, Center for European Reform:
He has control of all the administrative machinery required to make sure that a crushing vote in favor of him is delivered and we get another six years of Putin up to at least 2030.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
India - the world’s biggest democracy – will hold parliamentary elections between April and May, with the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead in the polls.
Pushp Saraf, Political Journalist:
These are very significant elections because there are clearly two opinions in the country at the moment. One is that BJP is polarizing society along the communal lines. And on the other hand, there is the opinion that BJP is focusing more on national security.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
On June 2, Mexico is due to hold presidential elections – which could herald a new milestone.
Patricio Morelos, Mexican Pollster:
It is also a historic event because of the possibility that, for the first time, a woman will govern Mexico.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
The European Union is set to hold parliamentary elections in June, representing more than half a billion people – amid a resurgence in support for right-wing populist parties.
Britain is scheduled to hold elections before the end of the year – with polls suggesting opposition Labour party leader Keir Starmer is on course to end a tumultuous 14 years of Conservative rule.
In the coming year, voters are set to wield their democratic power on an unprecedented scale – and the consequences will likely be felt for decades to come.
Henry Ridgwell, VOA News, London.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
As we mentioned at the top of the show, more than 40 countries will hold elections this year including the United States. Media watchdogs and groups warn of a challenging environment for journalists. VOA’s` Cristina Caicedo Smit examines some of the strategies news organizations are working on in 2024.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT, VOA Correspondent:
Presidential elections in Argentina set the stage for what generative AI can do on a campaign trail.
Javier Milei and his rival Sergio Massa used artificial intelligence technology to produce posters and videos to promote their campaigns and to try to discredit one another.
The images brought confusion and public debate over how AI is used, experts argue.
As Milei takes up his new role as president, more than 40 countries will hold elections, some pivotal, including Pakistan, Mexico, and the U.S.
And newsrooms are preparing for what many say could be a challenging year for journalists.
Clayton Weimers, Reporters Without Borders:
You know, press freedom is enshrined in the First Amendment. But we are experiencing a political moment where a lot of politicians seem to be questioning the value of an independent media and of journalism as an institution.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
The last U.S. presidential election year was one of the most violent for media in the U.S., with press watchdogs documenting assaults, arrests and threats as Americans contended with the campaigns, a pandemic, and mass protests over racial injustice.
With elections in 2024, the biggest challenges for media will be AI, disinformation and safety.
Sharon Moshavi, International Center for Journalists President:
And that security is both in-person, whether you're covering rallies or things of that nature, you know, candidate events, that has become a deeper issue, and then there is online security, online safety.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
Another concern for Moshavi and her team at the International Center for Journalists, or ICFJ, is artificial intelligence, which she says can trick even the savviest of voters.
Sharon Moshavi, International Center for Journalists President:
Generative AI is rapidly changing the information ecosystem, and journalists are very concerned and worry about dealing with deep fakes, with misinformation, with disinformation.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
The ICFJ is working to ensure that journalists have the tools and support they need through its Disarming Disinformation initiative.
Sharon Moshavi, International Center for Journalists President:
We think it's imperative that every reporter, frankly, becomes a disinformation reporter. It's affecting every aspect of our lives.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
Reporters without Borders has set up a database to track violations against media in the U.S. and provide an overview of conditions for media in different states.
Clayton Weimers, Reporters Without Borders:
We are launching a project right now that is going to examine exactly how big those differences are and where they exist. So, for instance, if you are a reporter in California, how does that compare to your experience as a reporter in South Dakota?
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
The State Press Freedom Index will examine factors like news deserts and pluralism of news outlets covering local issues, among other challenges.
As the election campaign gets underway in the U.S., analysts say trust in media will be important.
Sharon Moshavi, International Center for Journalists President:
So, I think that there is a deep correlation between trusting information and the power of disinformation. And I do think that all news organizations need to be centering in trust.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT:
With an estimated 1.5 billion people — including 168 million here in the U.S. — scheduled to vote in 2024, experts say that independent journalism will be key to supporting democracy.
Cristina Caicedo Smit, VOA News.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israel has granted permission to the United Nations for an assessment of conditions in northern Gaza. This development comes as displaced Palestinian civilians, who have sought refuge in the southern part of the enclave, are fervently imploring to be allowed to return to their homes. VOA's Senior Diplomatic Correspondent Cindy Saine brings us the latest update from the State Department.
CINDY SAINE, VOA Senior Diplomatic Correspondent:
As Israel continued to pound the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken held longer than planned meetings in Tel Aviv with Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Blinken said Palestinian civilians displaced by the war must be allowed to return to their homes.
Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State:
As Israel's campaign moves to a lower intensity phase in northern Gaza and as the IDF scales down its forces there, we agreed today on a plan for the U.N. to carry out an assessment mission. It will determine what needs to be done to allow displaced Palestinians to return safely to the north.
CINDY SAINE:
Blinken said Hamas may have left unexploded bombs and that there are other security and logistical concerns before Palestinians who were told to flee south can return home safely.
Displaced Gazans in Khan Younis on Tuesday asked Blinken to support their return to their homes in the north of the enclave. One woman said this:
Enaam Ibrahim Hijazi, Displaced Gaza Civilian:
My message to the U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: get us back home to northern Gaza, even if to a tent, it's better than here. Because we are suffering, it's been three months we are staying here. It's better to go back home.
CINDY SAINE:
Blinken said he told Israeli leaders the civilian death toll in Gaza is still much too high.
Asked why the United States does not oblige Israel to agree to a cease-fire, Blinken had this to say.
Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State:
We want this war to end as soon as possible. There's been far too much loss of life, far too much suffering. But it's vital that Israel achieve its very legitimate objectives of ensuring that October 7th can never happen again.
CINDY SAINE:
One analyst told VOA this goal stated by Israel is too vague.
Khaled Elgindy, Middle East Institute:
Israel's no closer to achieving that goal, in large part because we don't know what it looks like. And Hamas still has the ability to launch rockets, they are still putting up a fight on the ground. And so, the question for the administration is, how much of a human cost is too high?
CINDY SAINE:
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says more than 23,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel started its war on the Gaza Strip after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7th that killed about 1,200 people. Countless homes and buildings across Gaza have been destroyed by Israeli rocket attacks.
Cindy Saine, VOA News, the State Department.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
In 2023, Ukraine attempted to break through the lines of invading Russian forces, as the West stepped up the supply of heavier weapons and advanced missile systems. But as Henry Ridgwell reports, neither side appears able to make a significant breakthrough — and there is little sign that Kyiv and Moscow are prepared to negotiate a peace deal.
HENRY RIDGWELL, Reporting for VOA:
Ukraine attempted to break through the lines of invading Russian forces in 2023, as the West stepped up the supply of heavier weapons and advanced missile systems. But as Henry Ridgwell reports, neither side appears able to make a significant breakthrough — and there is little sign that Kyiv and Moscow are prepared to negotiate a peace deal.]]
Invading Russian forces seized the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar in January 2023, after months of brutal fighting. Russian missiles continued to rain down on Ukrainian cities.
With Ukrainian forces struggling to make battlefield gains, Western allies announced they would send heavy weapons to Kyiv – including tanks and longer-range missile systems.
Ahead of the first anniversary of the war in February, U.S. President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit to Kyiv. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin had been wrong about Western commitment to Ukraine.
President Joe Biden:
He thought he could outlast us. I don't think he's thinking that right now.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
Evidence suggests that Russia destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in May, flooding vast areas of southeast Ukraine to stall any Ukrainian counter-offensive – and creating an environmental disaster. Russia, in return, blamed Ukraine for the structure’s collapse.
By June, Ukraine was able to recapture some territory but failed to achieve a major breakthrough in the Russian lines. The Western weapon supplies were too little, too late, says analyst Ian Bond.
Ian Bond, Centre for European Reform:
The Russians had a long time to build up their minefields and their fixed fortifications, so they’re actually in a much stronger position than they were. And we’ve been asking the Ukrainians to launch their counter-offensive when they have very little air capability.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
Mercenaries from Russia’s private Wagner army staged a mutiny in June. Putin negotiated an end to the rebellion. Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash a few weeks later.
By November, Ukraine’s commander in chief said the war had reached a stalemate – though Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disagreed with his assessment.
Zelenskyy did achieve a diplomatic breakthrough – as the European Union in December agreed to start formal accession talks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President:
The negotiation process will not be easy, but the main thing is that historically we have made a determination: Ukraine will always be part of our common European home.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
But that European future remains in the balance, says analyst Olga Tokariuk.
Olga Tokariuk, Chatham House:
If Ukraine is defeated, if Ukraine fails militarily, all the EU membership negotiations process is worthless. But it will not just be a defeat of Ukraine. It will be a defeat of the European Union and the wider West, that committed to supporting Ukraine as long as it takes.
HENRY RIDGWELL:
Ukrainian forces face a long bitter winter on the frontlines.
With vital military aid packages held up in the both the United States and the European Union, analysts say Ukraine’s greatest concern for the coming year is Western fatigue – as the U.S. presidential election looms at the end of 2024.
Henry Ridgwell, VOA News, London.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
A turbulent year in U.S. and China relations resulted in talks between the country’s two leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco last November. During the meeting, President Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden that Taiwan is the most sensitive issue in their bilateral ties. VOA State Department Bureau Chief Nike Ching reports on the significance of the island in relations between the two superpowers.
A walk in the Filoli Estate and Gardens.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held four hours of face-to-face talks last month on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
The two leaders agreed to resume military to military communication to prevent miscalculation and to restart talks to address America’s fentanyl crisis.
Ensuring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait also was high on the agenda. According to a high-level U.S. official, Xi signaled that China is not preparing for a massive invasion of Taiwan.
Despite this pledge, China is escalating military activities near the Taiwan Strait.
The United States has voiced concerns about any Chinese interference through military coercion, as Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January 2024.
Biden told reporters after his meeting with Xi that he would “trust but verify” what was said during the meeting.
U.S. President Joe Biden:
I made it clear: I didn't expect any interference, any at all. And we had that discussion as -- as he was leaving. Look, do I trust? You know, I “trust but verify,” as the old saying goes.
NIKE CHING:
The Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan but claims sovereignty over the self-governed democracy, which became home to the defeated Nationalist Chinese leadership in 1949. Beijing vows to bring the island under its control even by force. It also opposes Washington providing defense equipment to Taipei.
Wu Qian, China’s Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson:
Taiwan’s security depends on the peaceful development of the cross-strait relations instead of a few pieces of U.S.-made weapons.
NIKE CHING:
Since the U.S. switched its diplomatic recognition from the government of Taipei to Beijing in 1979, Washington has insisted that the two sides should resolve their political disputes peacefully.
Analysts believe both the United States and China want to ease tensions, but fundamental challenges persist.
Bonny Lin, CSIS:
This is because none of the hard national security issues or the most difficult challenging issues between the two countries have been resolved, nor have we seen any major concessions or changes by either side. This includes, for example, Taiwan, what's happening in the South China Sea. It also includes some of the major trade issues that both sides have with each other.
NIKE CHING:
Taiwan has assessed that a large-scale Chinese invasion seems unlikely at present, following the meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders. China believes it has not exhausted peaceful options for unification and is awaiting the result of Taiwan's January election before deciding its next move, according to Lin and other analysts.
Nike Ching, VOA News, Washington.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
In 2023, there were notable events in space, including several successful SpaceX launches and a controversy surrounding a missing space tomato. However, 2024 promises even more excitement, potentially marking a return to the moon. Here's VOA's Arash Arabasadi with a quick look at what lies ahead for space travel and exploration.
ARASH ARABASADI, VOA Correspondent:
Finally this week, a quick look at what’s ahead for 2024. Private aerospace company Sierra Space looks to launch its Dream Chaser on a docking mission to the International Space Station, or ISS, this spring. It may look like the old space shuttles NASA used to launch, but it’s four times smaller, and the company touts its ability to land on standard runways instead of custom-made launchpads.
Meanwhile, Boeing will look to send its reusable Starliner capsule to the ISS with two astronauts on board. Tests have so far been mired in issues like flammable wiring and faulty parachutes, but if all goes well for Boeing and Starliner is a success, the company could begin alternating launches to the ISS with SpaceX.
Saving the best for last, NASA looks to send a crewed mission aboard the Orion capsule perched above its massive Space Launch System, or SLS rocket, on a trip around the moon.
Four astronauts will make the journey likely by year’s end.
Following the success of Artemis one, Artemis two is the space agency’s next step in returning astronauts to the moon for the first time in more than half-a-century.
Arash Arabasadi, VOA News.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Thank you for being with us on The Inside Story.
Stay up to date with all the latest news at VOANews.com.
Catch up on past episodes at our free streaming service, VOA Plus.
For all of those behind the scenes who brought you today’s show, I’m Katherine Gypson.
We’ll see you next week for The Inside Story.
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