The novel coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected more than 81,000 people worldwide and killed nearly 3,000. Those numbers have been a critical gauge of the infection’s spread, but they do not reflect the entire problem. Scientists consider several key questions when assessing the danger posed by the outbreak.
How many infected?
Almost all of the confirmed cases so far have been in China, with about 3,000 scattered around the rest of the world. In China, Beijing changed the testing criteria multiple times, leading to fluctuating numbers that have made it difficult to determine the outbreak’s growth. Outside China, some countries have reported faulty test kits or long delays in getting results. One large study in China found that more than 80% of the cases are mild, and some infected people show no symptoms. This means the number of infected could be much higher than the official tally.
How dangerous?
In the study published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, fewer than 14% of patients were considered “severe,” meaning people experienced shortness of breath, low oxygen or other lung problems. Fewer than 5% were “critical,” meaning patients experienced respiratory failure, multiple organ dysfunction or septic shock. Public health specialists said a significant source of risk during epidemics comes from overwhelmed health care systems that become unable to care for people who need other medical treatment.
How deadly?
The fatality rate in China has fluctuated, but now is about 2.3%. But scientists have pointed out that if the actual number of infected patients is much higher than the confirmed cases indicate, the percentage of people who die from infection is actually lower.
What’s the risk?
If the numbers hold up, the majority of people who become infected will experience mild cases, similar to a common cold or seasonal flu. China’s hardest hit provinces, which struggled to keep up with surging infections, had higher death rates than other areas of the country. Older people and people with preexisting health conditions are most at risk. Initial numbers indicate that children have contracted the coronavirus at lower rates than adults.
